Storm Head Coach Brian Agler (@brian_agler) is the latest member of the Storm to join Twitter. Just in time to analyze the WNBA Finals, which continue with tonight’s Game 3 in Atlanta (a must-win for the Dream), Agler began tweeting on Monday.

The offseason is a great time to make sure you’re following the Storm players on Twitter:
@SwinCash
@laurenej15
@MissARob43
@KatieSmith30

For players, Twitter is an easy way to keep everyone updated on their offseason exploits even from thousands of miles away. If you want to follow them all, or just monitor their tweets without having a Twitter account yourself, our Storm players list includes all of them.

There’s also a Storm personalities list that includes Karen Bryant (@KBSeattleStorm), Doppler (@Dopps00), my personal WNBA account (@kpeltonWBB) and more.

We’ve reached the WNBA Finals, and it’s become abundantly clear that my method of projecting the Atlanta Dream is outdated. There’s no reason to even show you anything using the Dream’s season-long rating, which Atlanta has long since surpassed, even without Erika de Souza (so much for adjusting the ratings for de Souza’s absence during the conference finals, as the Dream won both games without here).

So, again using Minnesota’s season-long rating (+7.7) against Atlanta’s since the middle of July (+6.0), here’s what the math says about possible outcomes of the best-of-five WNBA Finals.

(1) Minnesota 65.0 percent vs. (3) Atlanta 35.0 percent

Minnesota in 5: 25.5 percent
Minnesota in 3: 19.9 percent
Minnesota in 4: 19.7 percent
Atlanta in 4: 16.5 percent
Atlanta in 5: 12.5 percent
Atlanta in 3: 6.0 percent

According to the math, the odds are better than 1 in 3 that this series will go the distance, though the 2-2-1 format means we cannot entirely rule out a sweep like we saw last year.

To me, this series turns on a couple of issues. One of them is the Dream’s ability to contain Maya Moore. Atlanta usually has an athleticism advantage on the wings, but not really in this series. Certainly their depth is negated. My assumption is that Armintie Price will defend Seimone Augustus, leaving Angel McCoughtry on Moore. That sounds good, what with McCoughtry being a First Team All-Defensive Pick and all, but her success is built on gambling rather than playing sound position defense in 1-on-1 matchups. Moore must make the Dream pay when McCoughtry is caught out of place. Drawing fouls on McCoughtry, who has struggled with them throughout the postseason, will also help.

The second key matchup is at point guard, where Lindsay Whalen faces Lynx predecessor Lindsey Harding in a battle to determine the best way to spell Linds(a/e)y. Entering the season, I figured the addition of Harding would make this year’s Atlanta team better than last year’s finalists. It took a couple of months for that to play out, but now it seems to have happened. Harding is regarded as one of the league’s better defenders at the point; we’ll see how she handles a difficult matchup against the physical Whalen. If Harding can play her to a draw, I think the Dream wins this series.

Most likely, that won’t happen. Atlanta’s run has gone on far too long to be considered fluky, and the Dream is playing championship-caliber basketball, but Atlanta also hasn’t run into a team as well-rounded, deep and talented as Minnesota yet.

Pick: Lynx in 5

We’re minutes away from the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream tipping off the conference finals at Conseco Fieldhouse. Here’s a late look at what the numbers say about the two series. To review, my picks for the conference semifinals were 3-for-3, with the only misstep on series length coming in the Minnesota-San Antonio series. I thought the Lynx would sweep; instead they needed three games to take care of business.

West: (1) Minnesota 75.3 percent vs. (3) Phoenix 24.7 percent

Minnesota in 2: 38.6 percent
Minnesota in 3: 36.7 percent
Phoenix in 3: 12.4 percent
Phoenix in 2: 12.2 percent

In this case, I don’t think the overall numbers quite capture how effective the Mercury has been against Minnesota this season. The Lynx won the season series 3-2, but that includes the season finale after Phoenix was locked into the third seed and had relatively little incentive to win. So really it was more like a split. As compared to Storm-Mercury matchups, which have tended to bog down with physical play, games between these teams have been up-tempo affairs, often with scores in the hundreds.

I still give Minnesota the edge in this series, but I’d be somewhat surprised if it doesn’t go the distance. As with the last series, the key for Phoenix will probably be holding its own on the glass. If the Mercury has a dominant rebounding game like Game 2 against the Storm, that’s almost a guaranteed victory.

As in the first round, Atlanta complicates things. This time, it goes beyond the Dream’s improved play starting just before midseason. Now we have to deal with the probable absence of starting center Erika de Souza for the last two games of the series to join her Brazilian National Team for the FIBA Americas Championship. So I’ve actually got three different versions of the projections to show.

First, if we use season-long numbers:

East: (1) Indiana 62.1 percent vs. (3) Atlanta 37.9 percent

Indiana in 3: 34.3 percent
Indiana in 2: 27.8 percent
Atlanta in 2: 19.9 percent
Atlanta in 3: 18.1 percent

Now adjusting for the Dream’s strong recent play:

East: (3) Atlanta 54.5 percent vs. (1) Indiana 45.5 percent

Atlanta in 2: 31.1 percent
Connecticut in 3: 28.2 percent
Atlanta in 3: 23.5 percent
Connecticut in 2: 17.2 percent

If we could assume de Souza for the entire series, the Dream would be the favorites. In fact, Atlanta’s chances are actually better here than in the opening round. Not only did the Dream improve its rating against the Connecticut Sun, right now Indiana rates as weaker than the Sun did at the conclusion of the regular season.

Now, a hybrid model that uses the full-season Atlanta rating for the last two games:

East: (1) Indiana 58.6 percent vs. (3) Atlanta 41.4 percent

Indiana in 3: 34.2 percent
Atlanta in 2: 25.1 percent
Indiana in 2: 24.4 percent
Atlanta in 3: 16.3 percent

By this model, the Dream really needs to steal tonight’s game with de Souza and hope for a sweep. I certainly wouldn’t rule that possibility out, but I’m going with Indiana in 3. I think the extent to which this is a bad matchup for the Fever is a little overplayed, since two of the three meetings before the season finale Indiana had no interest in winning could have gone either way. But Atlanta is playing tremendous basketball, and with de Souza they would be the favorites to reach the Finals again.

Neil Enns/Storm Photos

Even the next morning, this one stings.

I suppose you could say that about any season-ending loss, but they are not created equal. In the debate on whether it’s more difficult to lose in lopsided fashion or drop a close game, consider me firmly on the latter side. When the game isn’t close, it’s easy to accept that the other team was simply better and move on.

In this case, when the game wasn’t decided until Candice Dupree scored an unscriptable putback with 1.9 seconds remaining, it feels like there should be one more game, one more overtime, even one more play. (Oh, to see what Sue Bird might have done with those 1.9 seconds had the Storm had a timeout left to set something up.)

The cliché is that at some point, losses hurt more than the wins feel good, even for a team that has experienced as much success as the Storm has in the Bird-Lauren Jackson era. One of the biggest benefits of winning is as simple as extending the season and playing on. That’s especially true in the WNBA, what with the long offseason that now stares us in the face. As long as teams play on, they stay together. As soon as the year ends, players scatter within days to all ends of the country and the world.

It’s going to take some time for that reality to set in.

“Right now, it just feels like, ‘We have a game in two days. We must,’” said Bird, eloquent even in heartache. “Obviously, we don’t. It will set in as the playoffs continue – every time we see a commercial, every time we see a game, it’s a reminder.”

That other WNBA teams still battle for a championship that, up through last night, belonged to the Storm is a reminder of what might have been. I think that’s what separates this season from some of the Storm’s past first-round losses. When Jackson was sidelined in 2008 and 2009, advancing deep into the playoffs was too much to ask of the remaining Storm players, no matter how hard they fought. The two years before that, the Storm simply wasn’t as good as a team as the opposition. To find an equivalent to this year, I think you have to go back to 2005, the last time the Storm defended a title. Then as now, the Storm won the opening game of the series in convincing fashion (on the road in Houston) before losing two in a row, including the deciding game at home.

What will stand out looking back are opportunities the Storm missed last night. A score here or there could have made it a double-digit game at the break and left Phoenix disheartened. When referees tried to tighten the game in the third quarter, Storm players lost their composure and committed fouls that proved costly both in terms of putting themselves in foul trouble and putting the Mercury on the free throw line. And missed free throws loomed large in a two-point game.

One of the dangers of fandom is putting too much of the credit or the blame on your own team and forgetting there is another one on the other side just as responsible for the outcome. Phoenix’s players deserve every bit of credit for the way they played last night. In fighting back from an 18-point deficit, the Mercury showed its own championship character, and the talent of Penny Taylor was on full display after Diana Taurasi fouled out. Dupree and DeWanna Bonner battled tirelessly in the paint against bigger Storm opponents and Nakia Sanford was the ultimate gamer in this series, fighting through a sore right knee to prove a difference-maker in the last two games.

Despite all that, the Storm found itself a stop away from overtime. It didn’t work out this time.

“We thought we could win and we did a lot of good things tonight,” said Brian Agler, “but sometimes things aren’t meant to be. That’s sort of how this game was. It wasn’t meant to be tonight.”

Over time, the bounces tend to even out. The Storm caught plenty of breaks on the way to last year’s WNBA championship. I’m sure that Phoenix lamented losing Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Bird’s clutch three the same way we will look back on this loss. There were also three narrow wins in the WNBA Finals against Atlanta. Last night, the bill for those close wins may have come due.

No matter how many times we look at last year’s trophy, that still hurts.

To find out what to expect from the Phoenix Mercury in this playoff series against the Storm, we went straight to the source. Ben York, who covers the team for PhoenixMercury.com in addition to writing for SlamOnline.com about the WNBA as a whole, knows the Merc better than anyone. York answered five questions about this series. Be sure to check out PhoenixMercury.com for my answers to Ben’s questions about the Storm.

StormTracker: To win this series, Phoenix needs to …
York: As any WNBA fan knows, winning in Seattle is a daunting task … especially in the playoffs.

So, if the Mercury wants to win this series, they’ll need to do a couple of things. First, they need to protect the rock. This team is at its best when they take care of the ball and limit turnovers to 12 or less per game. With the high-octane offense the Mercury runs, turning the ball over prevents Phoenix from getting into a solid rhythm on both ends of the floor.

They’ll also need to rebound the ball well. I assume the Storm will want to keep the pace of play more slow and methodical rather than try and run with the Mercury. If Phoenix wants to force an up-tempo game on Seattle, rebounding the ball at an effective rate is absolutely essential.

Without rebounds, they can’t run. If they can’t run, the pace of play slows. Slower pace means the Storm is in control. And as we’ve seen three of four times this season, when the Storm is in control it translates into Mercury losses.

What don’t we know about the Mercury because we don’t watch them every day?
I still don’t think people around the league realize how good DeWanna Bonner is.

In Phoenix, she often gets overshadowed because of the superstars she plays with. Yet, there probably isn’t another player in the league of her size with her unique skill set.

This year, she has also developed an increased confidence in her outside shooting game, which has stretched the floor out quite a bit for the rest of the team. Perhaps more than anything, she creates difficult mismatches for the defense and her length makes her incredibly difficult to guard.

What Storm player gives Phoenix the most concern?
If I’m honest, I don’t think there is one player that concerns the Mercury more than another; the entire Storm team is a concern. Last week was the perfect example. In the 70-85 loss in Seattle, the Mercury held Lauren Jackson to just four points but it didn’t matter; Katie Smith poured in 26 huge points to pace the Storm.

I suppose if I had to pick one player, it would be Sue Bird (who received my vote for MVP). The way she gets everyone involved offensively is a thing of beauty. If the Mercury wants to steal a win in Seattle, it will be imperative that they force Bird into making tough decisions and try to limit her playmaking ability.

However, that is much easier said than done.

What can we expect from Penny Taylor in this series after the time she’s missed?
Penny Taylor had one of her best all-around seasons in 2011. She came just short of being the first player in WNBA history to average 15 points, five assists, and five rebounds for an entire season (Taylor finished the season averaging 16.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists a night).

With the amount of rest she’s had over the past two weeks, I think it alleviated much of the nagging pain and discomfort that comes with a back injury. Against Seattle this year, Taylor has only averaged about seven shot attempts each night. I’d be surprised if Taylor shot less than 12 times each game in the upcoming series against the Storm. Between her, Taurasi, and Candice Dupree they should combine for close to 30 shots per game.

What Mercury player is an x-factor?
Has to be Candice Dupree. We hear a lot about the importance of Diana Taurasi and Penny Taylor but there have been several times this season when Dupree has carried the team – most recently versus the Los Angeles Sparks, where she had 22 points and 19 rebounds.

When Dupree scores effectively in the paint, it opens things up for Taylor, Taurasi, Bonner and the rest of the squad along the perimeter. It also forces the defense to double-team and/or collapse on Dupree at key times. The reason this is important is because it takes so much of the focus off Taurasi and Taylor that they can concentrate more on making plays (in a general aspect) than simply putting points on the board.

When the Mercury has multiple players who score in double-digits, this team is incredibly tough to beat.

The DigiGirlz with Karen Bryant.

On Aug. 19, the Storm welcomed the DigiGirlz to the team’s practice facility and business offices. 11 participants in this year’s Microsoft DigiGirlz High Tech Camp who indicated an interest in basketball were invited to attend a Storm practice and interview players Swin Cash, Ashley Robinson and Katie Smith while also meeting other members of the team.

After lunch, they returned to the Storm offices to write about their experience, edit photos and build a webpage. The DigiGirlz will also attend the Storm’s game against San Antonio next Tuesday and be recognized during a timeout. Check out their work!

There are Storm fans everywhere throughout the occupied world, but recently the Storm extended its presence to Antarctica. Thanks to Season Ticket Holder Derek Bryant, a Storm flag made its way to Pegasus White Ice Runway as part of Operation Deep Freeze. Check it out!

In 2009, Alex Chambers decided to take a WNBA road trip. 13 of them, in fact – all part of one goal for the Phoenix Mercury fan to visit every arena in the league. Two years later, Chambers has chronicled the trip in a book, 13 Teams: One Man’s Journey with the WNBA.

Chambers in Seattle in 2009. (Aaron Last/Storm Photos)

Each stop along the way, including a July 2009 visit to Seattle to see the Storm face the Sacramento Monarchs, is described in complete detail. While at KeyArena, Chambers was interviewed by Shellie Hart on StormVision during the game and had the chance to chat with Storm stars Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson in the locker room. Here’s what he wrote about interviewing Bird:

I began the interview by noting her well-known friendship with Diana Taurasi. When she smiled several times as she talked about her and Dee joke on and off the court I relaxed a bit, even though I felt like I was trying to interview her in a nightclub. Still, even with the game just moments away, Sue was relaxed and poised, smiling and laughing through a very brief interview. The most surprising fact I learned was that Sue played a variety of sports in high school, but it was no surprise when she told me that basketball was her favorite.

At the end of the interview, I pull out my Olympic tshirt and ask Sue to pen her name to the growing number of autographs that adorn it. Seattle Times reporter Jayda Evans nudges me and quips, “You know you’re not supposed to get autographs.”

Jayda was really just giving me a hard time, but she did have a point. Technically, media are not permitted to get autographs when they were working. It’s a good thing I’m not technically media.

Chambers’ behind-the-scenes access provides a fun look at personalities throughout the WNBA. Jackson gave him a hard time before happily providing an interview, and he interacted with the rest of the league’s stars while becoming a bit of a celebrity in his own right. (As mentioned in the Storm chapter, I interviewed Chambers before the Storm game he attended.) All of that is covered in 13 Teams, as is the larger purpose of his trip, which was dedicated to friend Cyndee, who passed away in the spring of 2008 after a battle with breast cancer.

13 Teams: One Man’s Journey with the WNBA is available now at Amazon.com.

While this one is unlikely to earn a trip to the White House, the Storm added another championship to the trophy case recently, defending the title in the Underdog Sports Co-Ed Spring Softball League. After an impressive 6-1 regular season, the Storm Softball team dominated INDY THIS! 37-3 in the opening round of the playoffs to reach the final game. There, an 11-run first-inning outburst provided nearly all the necessary scoring in a 24-13 victory over the only team to defeat Storm Softball all year, Frank and the Boozers.

Marketing Manager of Events and Entertainment Matt Heuer went the distance on the mound and was named Player of the Game for his gazelle-like baserunning. He was supported by an airtight defense and a lineup loaded with lumber in the middle of the order.

When the Storm won the Underdog Softball championship last spring, it carried over for the actual Storm team. We’ll see if going back-to-back has the same effect.

The Championship Roster

Back row, L-R: OF/3B Joe Wood, 1B Zach Habner, SS Chance Leiseth, 3B Aaron Moore, 2B/OF Lisa Nielsen, OF Kevin Pelton. Front row, L-R: OF Navreet Gill, 2B Chelsea Johnson, P Matt Heuer, C Kelly Mayeda, OF/captain Sean McLain, OF Tom Adamski. Not pictured: OF Amanda Bonner, OF Gentry Davis, OF Eileen Norton.

With voting for the Top 15 Players in WNBA history open now, I thought it would be fun to take a look at where the Storm’s four candidates – Sue Bird, Swin Cash, Lauren Jackson and Katie Smith - rank among the WNBA’s career leaders in a few key categories. Players that are not candidates for the Top 15 have an asterisk.

CAREER POINTS

Rk  Player                       Pts
------------------------------------
 1  Tina Thompson               6480
 2  Lisa Leslie                 6263
 3  LAUREN JACKSON              5803
 4  KATIE SMITH                 5788
 5  Diana Taurasi               4830
 6  Tangela Smith               4826
 7  Tamika Catchings            4745
 8  Chamique Holdsclaw          4716
 9  Becky Hammon                4651
10  Sheryl Swoopes              4642

Rk  Player                       Pts
------------------------------------
11  DeLisha Milton-Jones        4536
12  Taj McWilliams-Franklin     4495
13  Vickie Johnson*             4243
14  Yolanda Griffith            4238
15  Katie Douglas               4207
16  Deanna Nolan                3971
17  Nykesha Sales               3955
18  Betty Lennox*               3839
19  Chasity Melvin*             3814
20  SUE BIRD                    3688
21  SWIN CASH                   3627

Because the four players ahead of them are not active, Bird and Cash have a chance to move up the rankings this season and get as high as 16th. Already, they are 17th and 18th among Top 15 Player candidates. After surpassing Smith in the season opener, Jackson has just two names ahead of her – both of them very impressive ones. Smith, of course, is the all-time leading professional scorer when her ABL points are considered.

CAREER REBOUNDS

Rk  Player                       Reb
------------------------------------
 1  Lisa Leslie                 3307
 2  Taj McWilliams-Franklin     2660
 3  Tina Thompson               2637
 4  Yolanda Griffith            2444
 5  LAUREN JACKSON              2357
 6  Tangela Smith               2246
 7  Tamika Catchings            2185
 8  Margo Dydek *               2143
 9  Chamique Holdsclaw          2126
10  Chasity Melvin *            2118

Rk  Player                       Reb
------------------------------------
11  DeLisha Milton-Jones        2096
12  Michelle Snow*              1975
13  Cheryl Ford                 1907
14  Natalie Williams            1832
15  Tammy Sutton-Brown*         1832
16  Wendy Palmer*               1825
17  SWIN CASH                   1678
37  KATIE SMITH                 1161
--  SUE BIRD                     795

Jackson is close to passing former Storm center Yolanda Griffith for fourth in career rebounds. Smith ranks 17th among the 30 Top 15 nominees in rebounding, while Bird is 23rd in what is obviously her weakest category statistically.

CAREER ASSISTS

Rk  Player                Ast
-----------------------------
 1  Ticha Penicheiro     2417
 2  Sue Bird             1641
 3  Shannon Johnson      1424
 4  Teresa Weatherspoon  1338
 5  Dawn Staley          1337
 6  Becky Hammon         1239
 7  Vickie Johnson*      1205
 8  Lindsay Whalen*      1187
 9  KATIE SMITH          1061
23  SWIN CASH             787
--  LAUREN JACKSON        430

Naturally, Bird fares much better here. Smith, a part-time point guard, is also among the 11 players in league history with at least a thousand assists. Cash is moving up the list. This is Jackson’s weakest area as a post player; she ranks 25th of the 30 nominees.

CAREER MINUTES

Rk  Player                        Min
-------------------------------------
 1  Tina Thompson               13840
 2  KATIE SMITH                 13155
 3  Vickie Johnson              12435
 4  Tangela Smith               12033
 5  Taj McWilliams-Franklin     11877
 6  Ticha Penicheiro            11833
 7  Lisa Leslie                 11629
 8  DeLisha Milton-Jones        11577
 9  Chasity Melvin              10467
10  Shannon Johnson             10398

Rk  Player                        Min
-------------------------------------
11  Becky Hammon                 9860
12  Sheryl Swoopes               9841
13  SUE BIRD                     9794
14  LAUREN JACKSON               9772
15  Katie Douglas                9686
16  Tamika Catchings             9479
17  Tamecka Dixon*               9454
18  Sheri Sam*                   9270
19  Deanna Nolan                 9174
20  Chamique Holdsclaw           9170
21  Yolanda Griffith             8958
22  Mwadi Mabika*                8933
23  SWIN CASH                    8865

This is an interesting list that really speaks to longevity in the league.I was surprised, given her ABL experience, that Smith is second to only Tina Thompson in career minutes. Bird and Jackson are among several players closing in on 10,000 career minutes. Bird recently moved ahead of her teammate. Cash has a chance to make up a lot of ground as she nears 9,000 minutes; the six players ahead of her are all inactive.

Given how much time Bird, Cash and Jackson still have to add to their career totals, that they already rank this high is impressive indeed and a testament to the impact they’ve had on the WNBA over the last decade.