My initial inclination was to predict before the series that San Antonio would win Game 1 because of the short turnaround for the Shock from the end of the Eastern Conference Finals, but I thought better of it. Lo and behold, rest proved not to be a factor as Detroit jumped all over the host Silver Stars in the first half and controlled the closing minutes after San Antonio rallied to tie the game. That quickly, the Shock has stolen back home-court advantage in this series.

If once is a fluke, twice a coincidence and three times a trend, it’s officially time to worry about the Silver Stars. This is the third straight series where opponents have been able to score against the once-impenetrable San Antonio D. Detroit shot 47.1 percent from the field and committed just eight turnovers, which adds up to a cool 109.5 Offensive Rating. There’s no way the Silver Stars can defend like that and win.

Down the stretch, it was Taj McWilliams-Franklin who came up big for the Shock by slipping behind the defense after pick-and-rolls and getting good looks. McWilliams-Franklin also turned four offensive boards into second shots and finished with 24 points on 11-of-16 shooting. Katie Smith also made some enormous shots and scored a game-high 25.

On the other end, Detroit did a terrific job of defending Becky Hammon using a variety of defenders. The Shock pushed Hammon to the baseline and used the sideline against her desire to dribble around and probe the defense until something opens up. Hammon ended up with 13 points on 4-of-10 shooting, did not make a three and had four turnovers, but her frustration late in the game told the story in a way the numbers can’t possibly match.

As we look ahead to tomorrow’s Game 2, San Antonio could get a key lift if Helen Darling and/or Edwige Lawson-Wade are able to return to the lineup. However, that’s offset by the possibility that Plenette Pierson could play for the Shock. Either way, the Silver Stars will have to figure out a way to consistently get stops. Look for San Antonio to pay more attention to McWilliams-Franklin, which could open things up for Deanna Nolan or other perimeter players. Hammon should be able to get going, but unless the Silver Stars improve their defense, they won’t even this series.

Congrats to the San Antonio Silver Stars, your 2008 Western Conference champions. The Silver Stars rallied down the stretch at the AT&T Center yesterday to defeat Los Angeles for the second time in 28 hours and advance to the WNBA Finals for the first time. One of the observers who was happiest for San Antonio was Storm Head Coach Brian Agler, who spent the last three years as an assistant with the Silver Stars.

“I’ve got a lot of friends in San Antonio and I know those players and I know there are some players there that have had great careers that haven’t won a championship. I know how much that would mean to them,” Agler said last Friday. “It’s obvious that because of my friendships with them, I would like to see them achieve their goals. But I also have a lot of respect for the other three teams too.”

Even though the Sparks were eliminated, I gained a lot of respect for their ability as a team during their postseason run. I really thought L.A.’s guard play and inconsistency would be a major problem, but at no point during the playoffs did the Sparks beat themselves. They simply lost to a better team on the road, with a couple of tough calls going against them.

Los Angeles figures to be even more dangerous next year. With Shannon Bobbitt having a year of experience and Temeka Johnson further removed from microfracture knee surgery (she looked a lot healthier post-Olympics), the point-guard spot should be more stable. Really, the Sparks’ offseason priority ought to be shooting guard, where Marie Ferdinand-Harris isn’t the floor-spacer the team needs and Raffaella Masciadri is too limited for heavy minutes. I’m not sure if Spaniard Marta Fernandez, very effective at times during her rookie season in 2007, could be in the mix next year.

As for the Finals, our matchup will be complete tonight. Detroit and New York play a winner-take-all Game 3 back at Eastern Michigan University tonight at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN2. If the game comes down to the closing minutes again, the Liberty needs to do a better job of executing on offense. It was also baffling how Janel McCarville could be on the bench at key points of the game. The Shock figures to be tough to beat in a deciding game.

Either winner will have a quick turnaround with Game 3 scheduled for Wednesday in San Antonio. The extra day of rest will come in handy for a Silver Stars team that could really use a healthy Helen Darling and/or Edwige Lawson-Wade to add depth and allow Becky Hammon some quick breathers.

In the NBA, the Los Angeles-San Antonio rivalry has Derek Fisher’s shot with 0.4 seconds left to win a key game in the 2004 Western Conference Semifinals. Now, on the same court, the WNBA has matched it with an equally improbable finish, Sophia Young’s desperation jumper with 1.8 seconds left that bounced high off the backboard, off the front of the rim and back off the backboard before finally settling into the net to give San Antonio a 67-66 win in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals.

Watching the shot live via Webcast, it looked like the Silver Stars were doomed when it went a little long on the first carom. Young could shoot that shot 100 times and I’m not sure it would bounce in quite like that again.

So much was riding on that shot. As San Antonio took possession with 1.3 seconds left, it looked like the Silver Stars’ season was going to end on DeLisha Milton-Jones‘ layup moments earlier. With a win, the Sparks were headed to the WNBA Finals, while San Antonio needed the unlikely game score to force a Game 3 tomorrow. Now, the Sparks have to deal with a significant blow to their pysche and have only a little over 24 hours to do so because of the back-to-back games in the conference finals.

Los Angeles’ advantage is that the Silver Stars were so hard-pressed to contain Candace Parker and Lisa Leslie in this game. Parker had 19 points and a remarkable 17 rebounds, while Leslie added a double-double of her own with 17 points and 12 boards. This was a mirror image of much of the series with Seattle, with the stars carrying the Sparks while the role players save Temeka Johnson crumbled. I know Shannon Bobbitt is the better defender, but having the rookie running the show down the stretch instead of Johnson was mystifying. Bobbitt shot 2-for-12 from the field and was responsible for a costly shot-clock violation in the final minute.

San Antonio’s other big issue is backcourt injuries. Edwige Lawson-Wade left after rolling her right ankle and Helen Darling was limited and ultimately sidelined by a calf injury she’s been battling since the Olympic break. If both are out, the Silver Stars will have to rely heavily on their starters in a back-to-back set.

All of that sets up a fascinating winner-take-all Game 3 tomorrow at 2 p.m. on ESPN2 just after Detroit and New York play Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series at Noon.

Alas, recapping the Storm’s season left me with little time to work on previews of the conference finals, which kick off … well, actually about 20 minutes ago, but I haven’t looked at the L.A.-San Antonio score, so I’m still going to make my picks.

San Antonio in 2
In many respects, the Silver Stars can be considered a suped-up (read: healthy) version of the Storm. Both teams are outstanding on defense and can struggle at times on offense, not unlike the Sparks. I think San Antonio’s superior depth at this point of the season – especially if Edwige Lawson-Wade continues to offer a spark off the bench – will make the difference where the Storm fell just short.

Detroit in 3
The Libkids are certified playoff overachievers after extending the Shock to three games last year and taking out Connecticut in a first-round upset this season. Still, they’ll have their hands full with a Shock team that absolutely took Indiana apart in Tuesday’s Game 3. Even with Plenette Pierson’s status up in the air and Cheryl Ford long out, Detroit seems to be clicking. I think the Liberty can make things very interesting, but the Shock will ultimately prevail on their temporary homecourt at Eastern Michigan University.

While we await Game 3 of the Storm-Sparks series, a pair of series concluded with deciding games last night.

In Connecticut, the New York Liberty surprised the favored Sun and surprised me. Nothing against New York, but I really thought that Connecticut would come out of the Eastern Conference. Having not really seen much of the series, I’m not sure whether the Sun’s disappointing 12-of-55 three-point shooting was due to the Liberty’s defense or Connecticut’s offense. Either way, the three-heavy Sun could not survive the slump.

I’m a believer to some extent in the importance of experience in the postseason, but the Libkids are pretty clearly an exception at this point. Last year New York played way over its head by giving the Shock a first-round scare, and this year the Liberty pulled off the upset. Be wary, Detroit or Indiana.

After seeing Game 1, I also missed nearly all of the Sacramento-San Antonio series, which is a shame. I would have loved to see how the Monarchs earned a blowout win on the road in Game 2 and then forced OT last night. Whatever the team’s faults, Sacramento plays hard all the time, and that along with some timely shooting by Ticha Penicheiro and Nicole Powell put a scare into the Silver Stars.

Does the series being so much closer than expected reveal anything about San Antonio? My inclination is to say no. Last year, Detroit had an even more difficult time getting out of the first round and still came within one score of the championship. Sometimes, the matchups just aren’t right.

How about Edwige Lawson-Wade putting up a big game for the Silver Stars last night? Edwige was always a favorite during her brief time in the Storm, and now she’s translating her international success to the WNBA game. Mechelle Voepel highlighted Lawson-Wade and Liberty rookie Essence Carson in her postgame column.

It’s Time … almost.

With Sacramento falling earlier tonight in San Antonio, the playoff matchups in the Western Conference are set. The Monarchs finish fourth and will turn around and play again in the AT&T Center for Game 1 later this week. Meanwhile, the loss clinched third place for the Los Angeles Sparks, who will match up with your Seattle Storm … after the two teams play tomorrow in a relatively-meaningless game to close the regular season.

I asked Storm Head Coach Brian Agler before last night’s game about going against the postseason opponent ahead of time.

“I don’t know how either team will play that situation,” he said. “It’s sort of ironic that the other two teams, there’s a great chance that Sacramento and San Antonio will be in the situation. I will say this – all four of our teams will use that chance to study each other.”

The only thing the Storm has to play for in terms of positioning is home-court advantage for a potential WNBA Finals matchup with the Detroit Shock. A Detroit loss or Storm win would give the Storm the WNBA’s second-best record. The Shock plays at New York tomorrow at 1:00 p.m., just before the Storm and Sparks tip off at 1:30 p.m.

We may hear tonight on dates and times for the Storm’s series, and naturally those will appear first on storm.wnba.com.