Looking ahead to tomorrow’s semifinals, here’s a look at updated Olympic team stats.

Team             Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.7    133.8    1      76.6    1     73.6Australia         A    31.7    115.4    2      84.1    2     72.5China             B     6.3    101.1    4      94.1    5     72.0Russia            A     6.0    102.6    3      94.4    6     69.5Spain             B     3.2     96.7    5      92.8    4     73.0Belarus           A    -5.2     87.2   10      92.4    3     73.8Czech Republic    B    -9.8     89.5    9      99.5    8     72.9South Korea       A   -18.3     90.9    8     107.4    9     70.0

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.474   0.425   0.250   0.139Belarus           A   0.413   0.339   0.174   0.225China             B   0.465   0.274   0.239   0.164Czech Republic    B   0.431   0.303   0.221   0.222Russia            A   0.486   0.372   0.244   0.211South Korea       A   0.458   0.170   0.139   0.172Spain             B   0.485   0.300   0.220   0.219United States     B   0.607   0.423   0.167   0.127

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.406   0.768   0.196   0.203Belarus           A   0.434   0.738   0.225   0.184China             B   0.429   0.651   0.134   0.174Czech Republic    B   0.464   0.653   0.242   0.200Russia            A   0.438   0.732   0.194   0.169South Korea       A   0.525   0.561   0.242   0.233Spain             B   0.466   0.650   0.220   0.238United States     B   0.403   0.744   0.172   0.254

I’ve also used the Log5 method to predict each team’s chances of advancing and finishing in each position.

Team             Final   Gold  Silver  Bronze    4th

United States     99.6   94.0    5.6     0.4     0.0Australia         94.4    5.9   88.5     5.3     0.3China              5.6    0.0    5.6    47.8    46.5Russia             0.4    0.0    0.3    46.5    53.1

The USA remains a heavy favorite, to understate the issue. By these numbers, there’s little drama in the semifinals. Subjectively, that’s not the case. Let’s look at the two matchups.

USA vs. Russia
History is clear: Russia saves its best efforts for matchups against the U.S. Russia has always been unpredictable, but this year that’s even more true because of what appear to be legitimate chemistry issues only exacerbated by the addition of Becky Hammon. As I’ve noted before, however, Russia played much worse in the group round and in the quarterfinals in Brazil, and it did not matter in the semifinals.

From a statistical perspective, Russia’s size shows up on the glass, where Australia, the U.S. and Russia (in that order) are the three dominant teams. The USA has rebounded well against smaller teams, but sometimes allows offensive boards to bigger squads like Russia. If Russia wins, presumably 6-8 center Maria Stepanova will have a big game.

A key matchup will pit Hammon against Sue Bird at the point. Hammon has the ability to exploit the USA defense by getting to the basket. Nuria Martinez showed this vulnerability to dribble penetration in keeping Spain in the game for a half. However, the strength of the U.S. defense has been forcing turnovers, and Hammon has committed nearly four a game in these Olympics. (Her assist-to-turnover ratio is 5-to-23; ouch!) If the USA can turn Hammon over, it figures to frustrate both her and her Russian teammates while also offering transition buckets.

Lastly, watch the first quarter closely. In Brazil, Russia jumped out early thanks to hot shooting and the U.S. fell too far behind to catch up. While the last two games (blowing a big halftime lead against Australia, coming back against Spain) have bucked the trend, Russia generally plays much better from ahead. Team chemistry could be a major issue if the USA gets off to a quick start. If Russia is close after one quarter and especially at the half, the U.S. will likely be unable to pull away as it has against lesser competition thus far in the Olympics.

Australia vs. China
This game took on more drama when Penny Taylor sprained her right ankle during Tuesday’s quarterfinal win over the Czech Republic. Though Taylor has not had a big Olympics, she’s a key threat for the Opals, especially with Lauren Jackson playing at less than 100 percent. The Aussies hope to have Taylor for this game, but it’s more likely she will return on Saturday.

The Australian offense has yet to really click for an entire game in Beijing. Taylor’s absence would only exacerbate the issue. Belinda Snell will be critical with or without Taylor, but if Taylor is out and the Chinese defense is focused on Jackson (as it figures to be either way), Snell becomes the team’s best offensive option. Suzy Batkovic and Laura Summerton also need to offer the Opals scoring down low against a Chinese frontline that is not great defensively.

The offensive glass figures to be a major, major weapon for the Aussies. China is allowing opponents to grab 35.0 percent of their own misses, while the Opals have an Olympics-best 42.5 percent offensive rebounding rate. Add it up and it’s entirely possible that missed shots will be a 50-50 proposition for Australia, extending posessions and offering easy looks in the paint.

If China is to win, the Aussies will have to have a very poor shooting night, maybe get into some foul trouble up front and China will have to be hitting, its posts from midrange and perimeter players from long distance. China has the home-court advantage, and if that translates into the refereeing, that could help with getting Australia in foul trouble and keeping China out of it as well as keeping the Aussies off the line, where they like to live. The X-factor is that Tom Maher knows the Opals’ core players very well, information that could serve China well. It would still be a massive upset if Australia loses, but don’t rule it out.

As we head to the quarterfinals (mere hours away), let’s take a last look at the numbers from group play.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.2    132.3    1      75.1    1     73.9Australia         A    28.9    115.8    2      88.5    3     72.6Spain             B     8.9     96.8    5      87.0    2     74.1China             B     3.3     98.9    3      95.1    6     72.6Russia            A     1.7     98.2    4      94.0    5     69.9Belarus           A    -2.1     86.9   11      88.7    4     74.7Czech Republic    B    -2.7     95.0    6      96.9    7     73.2Brazil            A    -4.8     92.4    8      98.7    8     70.6South Korea       A    -9.5     92.2    9     100.5    9     69.5Latvia            A   -15.0     94.4    7     110.1   11     70.5New Zealand       B   -28.0     87.0   10     114.9   12     73.6Mali              B   -39.2     67.5   12     108.0   10     75.0

The USA’s amazing differential really never came down over the course of group play. It’s interesting to note that while the U.S. was dominant on defense, its offense was much further ahead of the pack. The Opals and the Americans were the only two teams to average a point per possessions, and the USA blew by that mark with ease. Australia’s offense continues to lag compared to 2004 and 2006, but the Aussies have defended well. Look out for Spain as a darkhorse.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.484   0.417   0.246   0.141Belarus           A   0.400   0.315   0.197   0.210Brazil            A   0.441   0.277   0.203   0.194China             B   0.453   0.293   0.220   0.167Czech Republic    B   0.463   0.319   0.235   0.224Latvia            A   0.474   0.284   0.225   0.221Mali              B   0.344   0.347   0.203   0.290New Zealand       B   0.414   0.299   0.224   0.222Russia            A   0.470   0.364   0.249   0.222South Korea       A   0.462   0.169   0.151   0.172Spain             B   0.488   0.308   0.209   0.223United States     B   0.610   0.406   0.163   0.135

Note that Spain has shot the ball better than anyone else besides the U.S.

Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia        A       0.433   0.771   0.205   0.200Belarus          A       0.417   0.722   0.203   0.190Brazil           A       0.447   0.690   0.213   0.174China            B       0.420   0.673   0.149   0.149Czech Republic   B       0.473   0.682   0.236   0.215Latvia           A       0.495   0.641   0.219   0.165Mali             B       0.503   0.660   0.176   0.169New Zealand      B       0.564   0.627   0.288   0.209Russia           A       0.434   0.730   0.179   0.163South Korea      A       0.507   0.575   0.258   0.265Spain            B       0.447   0.661   0.220   0.254United States    B       0.395   0.727   0.192   0.270

Australia crushed Russia on the offensive glass and dropped Russia way back to the pack in terms of defensive rebounding, just ahead of the USA.

Let’s close out by using the Log5 method to predict each team’s chances of advancing and winning it all.

Team             Semi   Final   Champ

United States    99.9    99.5    95.9Australia        96.9    92.0     4.0China            65.6     5.2     0.0Belarus          34.4     1.6     0.0Czech Republic    3.1     1.2     0.0Spain            70.5     0.4     0.0Russia           29.5     0.1     0.0South Korea       0.1     0.0     0.0

So, as you can see, the USA is something of a favorite. Now, two things throw off these numbers. They’re based on each team’s Pythagorean winning percentage (based on points scored and allowed) and the U.S. has been so, so dominant as to show up as virtually unbeatable. Subjectively, while the U.S. women are good, they aren’t that good. Second, if Russia really has been playing possum, the numbers cannot pick up on that, giving Spain an edge that again doesn’t match our subjective assessment.

What I do agree with is showing China as a favorite over Belarus to advance to the semis. The numbers do also show, even if it’s exaggerated, how much Spain was hurt by finishing third to China in Group B. The Spanish would have a reasonable 10.2 percent chance of reaching the final had they finished second; as it is, it will be extremely difficult to get past both Russia and the U.S.

Back with another check of the numbers. First, a note on what to look for tonight/tomorrow as group play wraps up. Obviously, first place in Group A is on the line when Australia faces Russia at 8:15 p.m. Pacific. I’ll be watching on NBC’s webcast. I half suspect Russia won’t bring its A game, not caring about group positioning and preferring to play the U.S. in the semifinals anyway.

South Korea and Latvia follow them with a spot in the medal rounds on the line. Belarus has beaten both teams and will finish third in Group A even with a loss to Brazil.

In Group B, the four teams are set, but after the U.S. the order is a mess. If China beats the Czech Republic, the host country finishes second with Spain third and the Czech Republic fourth barring a wildly improbable Mali upset over Spain.

If the Czech Republic wins that game, again assuming Spain takes care of business, we have a three-way tie that can’t be resolved via head-to-head results. As best I can tell, that would be determined by point average (a misleading term which really would better be called “point ratio”) from head-to-head games.

Spain is in good shape, having beaten the Czech Republic by 19 points. Their point average is 1.131. To reach that, the Czechs would have to win by about double, or 38 points(bad math) about 34 points. To finish ahead of China, the Czech Republic would have to win by about 11 points or more.

Again, this is huge because the second-place team in Group B gets Belarus and a relatively clear path to the semifinals, while the third-place team has to face the loser of Australia-Russia and fourth place will play the winner of that game.

Anyways, here are the numbers.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    PaceUnited States     B    59.9    131.3    1      72.8    1     74.7Australia         A    28.9    117.9    2      90.2    3     73.6Russia            A     9.3    102.3    3      90.8    4     70.2Belarus           A     2.3     90.4    9      87.8    2     75.1Czech Republic    B     2.0     96.1    4      93.5    5     73.8Spain             B     0.3     96.0    5      95.2    6     72.6China             B    -1.4     96.0    5      96.2    7     73.1Brazil            A   -11.4     92.3    7     105.3    9     69.9South Korea       A   -13.1     87.8   10      99.6    8     70.7Latvia            A   -17.0     92.2    8     109.6   10     72.0New Zealand       B   -22.5     87.5   11     109.8   11     74.4Mali              B   -39.1     70.2   12     110.3   12     73.6

The USA’s numbers remain impeccable, though I think Spain’s first-half challenge showed where the team could have some difficulty. When Sue Bird had a tough time with Nuria Martinez’s quickness, the U.S. struggled to fill in for her. Kara Lawson was too prone to turnovers, while Cappie Pondexter isn’t a true point guard. Having either another true point like Lindsay Whalen or a complementary player like Loree Moore available would have given Anne Donovan more options.

Offensive Four Factors:

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%Australia         A   0.509   0.401   0.242   0.143Belarus           A   0.419   0.307   0.238   0.218Brazil            A   0.447   0.288   0.209   0.208China             B   0.437   0.318   0.195   0.173Czech Republic    B   0.491   0.307   0.232   0.241Latvia            A   0.482   0.227   0.223   0.227Mali              B   0.348   0.367   0.203   0.278New Zealand       B   0.398   0.317   0.249   0.213Russia            A   0.500   0.398   0.246   0.231South Korea       A   0.442   0.157   0.141   0.171Spain             B   0.485   0.295   0.223   0.225United States     B   0.606   0.423   0.164   0.138

Australia has not shot the ball particularly well, but the Opals’ offense is still second only to the U.S. because the Aussies are doing everything else well on offense.

And defense:

Team               eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%Australia         0.452   0.776   0.191   0.204Belarus           0.417   0.712   0.209   0.203Brazil            0.480   0.701   0.259   0.173China             0.433   0.680   0.126   0.147Czech Republic    0.461   0.651   0.213   0.231Latvia            0.483   0.616   0.223   0.162Mali              0.504   0.662   0.180   0.157New Zealand       0.545   0.617   0.325   0.230Russia            0.447   0.794   0.154   0.171South Korea       0.525   0.595   0.266   0.281Spain             0.475   0.641   0.225   0.232United States     0.372   0.714   0.212   0.272

Yeah, I’d say the U.S. commitment to defense has paid off so far.

With the first three games of group play in the book, I’ve got my spreadsheet updated to take a look at advanced possession-based stats for all 12 Olympic teams. They’re sorted below by differential per 100 possessions.

Team            Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    62.2    133.4    1      70.9    1     75.6Australia         A    27.9    113.0    2      86.3    3     74.2Spain             B    17.9    101.5    3      85.0    2     72.7Russia            A     7.5    100.5    4      90.2    4     70.7Belarus           A    -1.3     91.0    8      92.7    5     76.0Brazil            A   -10.4     92.2    7     104.6    9     70.3China             B   -11.2     95.2    5     104.7   11     74.2Czech Republic    B   -11.2     86.4   11      97.8    6     74.4Latvia            A   -12.0     88.9   10     101.7    7     72.1South Korea       A   -12.8     93.0    6     103.2    8     70.3New Zealand       B   -16.0     89.7    9     104.6    9     75.1Mali              B   -41.8     70.7   12     114.0   12     74.9

The U.S. … wow. Just wow. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a number that big in any context. Spain figures to present a greater challenge on Friday, but my expectation was that China was the second-best team in Group B – and China will finish second with a win over the Czech Republic – and the USA ran the Chinese out of the building on Monday. So … yeah.

The Opals are about where you’d expect on defense. They haven’t scored as efficiently as is typical, largely because Lauren Jackson and Penny Taylor haven’t lived up to their own lofty standards. I don’t think that’s much of a concern.

Since losing to China, Spain has played very well. The Spanish women will see their rating go way down after playing the USA tomorrow, however. It’s possible that if the U.S. wins in a rout we could have only three teams with positive differentials.

A couple of decent teams – Brazil likely to be one of them – will be left home from Group A, which is much more balanced than the stratified Group B.

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

                            OFFENSE                           DEFENSETeam             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%       eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.516   0.361   0.293   0.173     0.411   0.752   0.172   0.184Belarus           A   0.399   0.287   0.227   0.177     0.442   0.683   0.233   0.207Brazil            A   0.443   0.330   0.228   0.220     0.473   0.743   0.295   0.165China             B   0.434   0.327   0.237   0.187     0.471   0.713   0.122   0.119Czech Republic    B   0.449   0.291   0.185   0.249     0.481   0.651   0.230   0.219Latvia            A   0.446   0.257   0.211   0.213     0.478   0.667   0.268   0.201Mali              B   0.365   0.351   0.228   0.295     0.525   0.645   0.214   0.166New Zealand       B   0.396   0.306   0.277   0.195     0.520   0.613   0.307   0.235Russia            A   0.500   0.389   0.280   0.244     0.444   0.780   0.156   0.172South Korea       A   0.476   0.136   0.141   0.166     0.532   0.596   0.260   0.258Spain             B   0.514   0.294   0.204   0.212     0.419   0.700   0.263   0.244United States     B   0.606   0.378   0.174   0.117     0.368   0.718   0.190   0.275

Q noted that the U.S. women struggled on the glass in the big win over Mali, but over the course of the tournament it has not been a big problem. Russia’s giant frontline will test the USA on the glass. Remarkably, Russia and the Czech Republic, two good, veteran teams, have turned the ball over more frequently than anyone besides lowly Mali.