The Storm and the Mercury aren’t the only teams tipping off their series tonight. In the East, the Indiana Fever hosts Game 1 against the New York Liberty, with the other two series following tomorrow. To give an idea of the likely outcomes in those series, I turned to the same schedule-adjusted point differential ratings that went into the projections of who would make the playoffs on StormTracker in recent weeks. In this case, we don’t have to use a simulation but just probability theory to find favorites.

West: (1) Minnesota 79.7 percent vs. (4) San Antonio 20.3 percent

Minnesota in 2: 42.8 percent
Minnesota in 3: 36.8 percent
San Antonio in 3: 10.4 percent
San Antonio in 2: 9.9 percent

The Lynx are the most overwhelming favorites in this year’s first round, but historically this isn’t a big percentage for a top seed, as the 1-4 matchup has gone to form 87.5 percent of the time. For a fourth seed, the Silver Stars – who won 18 games and had an even better point differential than that – are very good.

East: (1) Indiana 67.4 percent vs. (4) New York 32.6 percent

Indiana in 3: 35.6 percent
Indiana in 2: 31.8 percent
New York in 2: 16.7 percent
New York in 3: 15.9 percent

The same is true to an even larger extent in the Eastern Conference. I’d venture the guess that the two-game difference in the standings between the Fever and the Liberty is one of the smallest ever for a 1-4 matchup. Indiana is the better team, but this series is far from a lock.

East (2) Connecticut 64.5 percent vs. (3) Atlanta 35.5 percent

Connecticut in 3: 34.9 percent
Connecticut in 2: 29.6 percent
Atlanta in 2: 18.4 percent
Atlanta in 3: 17.1 percent

So here’s the problem with this series. The Dream’s +1.4 schedule-adjusted differential just doesn’t reflect how well Atlanta has played recently. Since July 16, Atlanta’s rating is +4.8, which would rank second behind Minnesota over the full season. If we give the Dream that rating, here’s the result:

East (3) Atlanta 52.5 percent vs. (2) Connecticut 47.5 percent

Atlanta in 2: 29.6 percent
Connecticut in 3: 29.1 percent
Atlanta in 3: 22.9 percent
Connecticut in 2: 18.4 percent

Suddenly the Dream becomes more likely than not to pull the upset. Home court still gives the Sun an excellent chance of pulling out the series, particularly if it goes the distance, but an Atlanta sweep is the single most likely outcome from this perspective.

Such an even 2-3 series isn’t really out of the ordinary. Historically, second seeds have had only a slight advantage over third seeds, winning 54.2 percent of the time.

So my picks for the first round are Minnesota in 2, Indiana in 3 and Atlanta in 2.

The 2011 regular season is in the books, and while much of this year’s WNBA story remains to be written, we can finalize regular-season statistics for players and teams.

Right now, I’m just going to post some player stats on the off chance any last-minute award voters are interested. I’ll edit in team stats later in the day.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .714    8.7
Tamika Catchings    IND   .745    8.5
Penny Taylor        PHO   .736    6.9
Angel McCoughtry    ATL   .702    6.5
Sue Bird            SEA   .650    6.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .658    6.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .677    6.3
Tina Charles        CON   .633    6.1
Maya Moore          MIN   .673    6.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .646    5.4

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Renee Montgomery    CON   .630    5.3
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .595    5.1
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .656    5.1
Katie Douglas       IND   .634    5.1
Candace Parker      LAS   .745    4.5
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .580    4.1
Seimone Augustus    MIN   .576    3.9
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .550    3.5
Kara Lawson         CON   .587    3.5
Rebekkah Brunson    MIN   .561    3.4

Fowles took advantage of Catchings sitting out yesterday’s game to win the WARP title for 2011 season. Statistically, both players stood far above their peers.

ROOKIE WARP

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Maya Moore          MIN   .673    6.1
Danielle Adams      SAS   .640    2.7
Elizabeth Cambage   TUL   .557    2.3
Jeanette Pohlen     IND   .521    1.7
Danielle Robinson   SAS   .457    0.8
Jenna O'Hea         LAS   .444    0.3
Kayla Pedersen      TUL   .431    0.3

Moore is going to win; WARP just makes it look a lot more legitimate than it seemed at midseason, when Adams was outplaying her. Even without Adams’ injury, Moore’s strong second half would have pushed her ahead.

SIXTH WOMAN WARP

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .656    5.1
Kara Lawson         CoN   .587    3.5
Jia Perkins         SAS   .564    3.1
Jessica Davenport   IND   .587    3.0
Essence Carson      NYL   .577    2.9
Danielle Adams      SAS   .640    2.7

An unusually strong field of reserves, thanks in no small part to the San Antonio Silver Stars, but this remains Bonner’s award to lose until she becomes a starter in Phoenix.

As we start the last month of the regular season (sort of), here’s the latest advanced statistics. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       110.9     Chicago        96.3
Minnesota     107.8     Minnesota      96.6
Indiana       104.7     Seattle        96.7
Los Angeles   103.4     Indiana        97.2
Connecticut   102.2     New York       97.5
New York      100.9     San Antonio    98.6
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta       100.1
San Antonio    99.6     Connecticut   100.5
Atlanta        99.3     LEAGUE        100.8
Seattle        97.4     Phoenix       105.7
Chicago        96.7     Washington    105.7
Washington     95.6     Los Angeles   106.7
Tulsa          90.7     Tulsa         108.5

There’s a really tight race for the best defense in the WNBA, with as many as five teams still in contention with less than two weeks remaining in the season. It’s close enough that the winner might be decided by schedule the rest of the way, which is bad news for the team that plays Phoenix in the penultimate game of the regular season. Offenses have mostly shaken out already, with the exception of the Silver Stars slipping after playing three games in a row against the Storm and the Lynx.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .775     Indiana        .668
Phoenix        .625     Connecticut    .564
San Antonio    .535     New York       .546
Seattle        .521     Chicago        .503
Los Angeles    .398     Atlanta        .503
Tulsa          .072     Washington     .279

The Dream’s hot August still hasn’t translated in point differential terms. Chicago is right there in the East, but doesn’t have the wins to make a playoff berth in all likelihood.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .775    8.1
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .723    7.9
Penny Taylor        PHO   .735    6.7
Sue Bird            SEA   .655    5.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .641    5.1
Katie Douglas       IND   .677    5.1
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .617    5.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .653    5.1
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .656    5.0
Maya Moore          MIN   .648    4.9

Sylvia Fowles made a push last week. With the Sky probably headed to the lottery, however, it’s going to be hard for her to garner much MVP support. The candidacy of Tina Charles isn’t really supported by the numbers; Charles dropped out of the top 10 in WARP this week, and while she’s been excellent on the glass, her scoring efficiency has been down from her rookie season. Charles’ True Shooting Percentage is below 50 percent, which just isn’t MVP caliber.

The most interesting name on the list is probably Maya Moore. Conventional wisdom is that Moore has had a disappointing rookie season, and if expectations were she would dominate from day one like Candace Parker (and I kind of thought she might), that’s true. Still, Moore has been a useful part of the Lynx’s league-leading run. Let’s compare her numbers with teammate Seimone Augustus, who has 3.2 WARP.

Player      TS%    Usg  Ast%   Reb%   Stl%    TO%
-------------------------------------------------
Moore      .535   .213   4.3    9.8    2.7   11.6
Augustus   .558   .239   3.2    7.4    1.6    9.2

Augustus is the better scorer, no doubt. She’s more efficient, uses more possessions and turns the ball over less frequently. Still, WARP rates Moore as the better offensive player. Her rebounding advantage is almost entirely at the offensive end, and Moore is a better passer. She also gets significant credit for spacing the floor with three-point shooting. That accounts for about 2/3 of the difference between the two players. Moore’s positives are a little more subtle than we expected, but they exist nonetheless.

With three weeks left in the regular season, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.1     Indiana        96.2
Minnesota     107.6     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.5     Minnesota      97.3
Los Angeles   103.2     Seattle        97.9
Connecticut   102.4     New York       98.0
New York      101.3     San Antonio    98.7
San Antonio   101.0     Connecticut    99.6
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.8
Atlanta        98.5     LEAGUE        100.8
Seattle        97.4     Washington    105.1
Chicago        96.4     Phoenix       106.4
Washington     96.2     Los Angeles   107.3
Tulsa          88.6     Tulsa         107.8

The Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky are putting the lie to the preeminence of defense this season. The Mercury and Sky are largely mirror images (first on offense/10th on defense for Phoenix, 10th/second for Chicago), yet Phoenix’s defense is so far ahead of the pack that the Mercury is one of the league’s better teams while the Sky might be left out of the postseason.

The Sparks have won two of their last three with Candace Parker back in the lineup, but her return has yet to invigorate their defense. Los Angeles will have to find a way to stop opponents to make as serious run at the postseason.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .762     Indiana        .690
Phoenix        .616     Connecticut    .595
San Antonio    .563     New York       .543
Seattle        .497     Chicago        .495
Los Angeles    .375     Atlanta        .490
Tulsa          .027     Washington     .297

The Sky has a slight edge on Atlanta in terms of point differential, but not in the all-important standings, and as a result the Dream is the heavy favorite to claim the last playoff spot in the East. Other than that, not a lot of chances for teams to move too far up and down the rest of the season.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .780    7.6
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .709    6.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .729    5.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .683    5.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .640    4.7
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .617    4.5
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .650    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .651    4.3
Renee Montgomery    CON   .635    4.3
Tina Charles        CON   .602    4.2

Tamika Catchings is really beginning to open up ground on the rest of the field in terms of WARP. This might finally be the year where she wins a long-overdue MVP award. Sylvia Fowles and Penny Taylor also have some separation, but thereafter it’s fairly close from fourth to 10th, a group that includes six guards and Tina Charles.

After a week’s break to deal with Sue Bird content, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.2     Minnesota      95.8
Minnesota     107.0     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.7     Indiana        96.9
Los Angeles   103.9     Seattle        97.7
New York      102.0     San Antonio    98.3
San Antonio   101.3     New York       98.7
Connecticut   101.1     Connecticut    99.4
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.6
Atlanta        98.0     LEAGUE        100.8
Washington     97.9     Washington    105.0
Seattle        97.0     Phoenix       106.3
Chicago        96.5     Los Angeles   108.1
Tulsa          88.5     Tulsa         108.3

The most interesting note this week might relate to the league average, which is down from 101.6 points per 100 possessions two weeks ago. Typically, offense tends to get better as the season goes on, possibly because of defensive fatigue and possibly because of improved continuity on offense. That hasn’t been the case this year, and certainly not for the Storm, which has struggled to score the last week and a half or so. Fourth place in defense is also about as low as the Storm has been in the rankings all season.

Offensively, the big movers were the Sparks, who are now fourth in the league without the benefit of Candace Parker (more on her in a second). If Los Angeles can get anywhere close to average defensively, the team’s offense is good enough to win games. The defensive tiers we saw previously no longer exist, at least at the top, where there’s a gradual progression among the first nine teams before a huge gulf between above-average Atlanta and the struggling Mystics.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .783     Indiana        .674
Phoenix        .615     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .580     New York       .541
Seattle        .500     Chicago        .493
Los Angeles    .371     Atlanta        .486
Tulsa          .015     Washington     .345

For the most part, differential tends to mirror the actual standings right now. The lone exception is Atlanta ranking behind Chicago in the East, though the difference between the two teams in negligible. The Dream has made up a lot of ground lately, especially with two wins against the Storm that dropped Seattle’s point differential.

In case you were curious, the Lynx’s differential is better right now (+8.6) than the Storm’s was in 2010 (+7.9), though that dropped significantly late in the season when Brian Agler rested starters. It was +9.9 through the team’s first 29 games.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .766    6.5
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .715    6.4
Penny Taylor        PHO   .724    5.3
Becky Hammon        SAS   .687    4.8
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .643    4.4
Sue Bird            SEA   .638    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .649    4.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .649    3.9
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .610    3.8
Katie Douglas       IND   .654    3.8

The same 10 players, though in a slightly different order. Sue Bird has slumped a bit recently, while Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen have surged.

In 30th place with 1.8 WARP, still tops on the Sparks, is Parker – who has been out since June 26. As she prepares to return, I wanted to take a look at how much different Los Angeles has been with her in the lineup. I adjusted the scores in each Sparks game for the quality of the opposition (based on season-long differential, for better or worse) and location.

Doing so shows that Los Angeles was 5.2 points per game better than average with Parker, which is more impressive than the 4-3 Sparks record would indicate. All seven of those games were against teams with above-.500 records and L.A. scored impressive blowouts of Phoenix and the Storm with Parker, as well as one of just five defeats the Lynx have suffered all season. A +5.2 differential would put the Sparks even with Indiana as the league’s second-best team.

Without Parker, Los Angeles has been about as bad as you’d assume. Their -6.7 differential is improved slightly by playing nine out of 15 games on the road, but the Sparks have still been 5.7 points per game worse than average since Parker’s injury.

The interesting part of this exercise is looking at L.A.’s remaining schedule. Because it’s home-friendly, an average team would go 7-5 the rest of the way. If the Sparks can get to +5.2 points per game – which might not be possible with Parker working her way back to 100 percent – we’d expect them to go around 9-3 in their last 12 games. That would require the Storm to go 6-4 the rest of the way to finish with a better record and guarantee a playoff spot.

A little late due to the busy week, here are the updated WNBA advanced stats. They serve as a testament to the performance of the Minnesota Lynx, who have emerged as the league’s top team with a seven-game winning streak. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       110.6     Minnesota      96.0
Minnesota     108.1     Seattle        97.2
New York      105.2     Indiana        97.3
Indiana       104.9     Chicago        97.5
Los Angeles   104.1     San Antonio   100.2
San Antonio   103.5     Connecticut   100.3
LEAGUE        101.6     New York      100.5
Connecticut   101.2     Atlanta       101.4
Seattle        99.1     LEAGUE        101.6
Chicago        98.0     Phoenix       105.9
Washington     97.5     Washington    106.6
Atlanta        97.0     Tulsa         108.5
Tulsa          89.2     Los Angeles   108.8

Minnesota is back on top in Defensive Rating and a strong No. 2 in Offensive Rating, having cut the gap with Phoenix in half over the last week. The league’s other most balanced team right now is the East-leading Indiana Fever, which also sits in the top four at both ends of the floor.

The Storm is moving up the Offensive Rating leaderboard. Currently, Seattle is in ninth place, the best the team has been since the early part of the season. The Defensive Rating standings are bizarre. At the top, there are four elite defenses. Then there is a group of four teams that have been better than average and all have allowed a similar number of points per 100 possessions. After them, there’s a big gap down to the four teams that have struggled at the defensive end. A blowout loss in Indiana sent the Sparks tumbling to the bottom of the rankings. So far, Joe Bryant has been unable to turn things around at the defensive end of the floor.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .800     Indiana        .668
Phoenix        .613     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .613     New York       .569
Seattle        .554     Chicago        .480
Los Angeles    .355     Atlanta        .424
Tulsa          .017     Washington     .304

In both conferences, one top team has emerged, with the next couple virtually indistinguishable in terms of point differential. Adjusting for schedule and recent play, however, tells a different story. The most recent Hollinger Power Rankings have the Storm all the way up to fourth in the WNBA, ahead of San Antonio.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .733    5.0
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .685    4.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .714    4.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .664    3.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .680    3.6
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .632    3.5
Katie Douglas       IND   .664    3.2
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .632    3.1
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .607    2.9
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .636    2.8

A couple of familiar names are surging up the rankings. One is Diana Taurasi, who has added a full win over replacement to her total since we last updated. Lindsay Whalen makes her first appearance in the top 10 after her excellent month of July. Angel McCoughtry still sits in 14th after a slow start to the season, but with another week like her last two, she’ll soon appear in the leaderboard.

Back from the All-Star break and ready for the second half of the season – which, in the case of several teams, means more than half their games. With a short week, there was relatively little movement in the advanced stats, but still a couple of notable changes. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       112.4     Seattle        95.8
Minnesota     107.7     Minnesota      96.6
New York      105.8     Chicago        97.3
Indiana       105.1     Indiana       100.0
Los Angeles   104.8     San Antonio   100.0
San Antonio   104.1     New York      100.2
Connecticut   102.9     Atlanta       101.4
LEAGUE        101.8     LEAGUE        101.8
Washington     98.7     Connecticut   101.8
Chicago        98.1     Phoenix       105.2
Seattle        97.0     Los Angeles   106.5
Atlanta        95.9     Washington    108.0
Tulsa          89.6     Tulsa         110.0

After last week, the Storm has ascended atop the league in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions. Moving ahead of Minnesota was equal parts the Lynx playing the Phoenix Mercury and the Storm shutting down the San Antonio Silver Stars (who dropped all the way from second in Offensive Rating to sixth). The Lynx look a little more offensive-minded than they did a week ago, having improved from fifth to second in Offensive Rating. Again, playing Phoenix has a tendency to make that happen.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .754     Indiana        .605
Phoenix        .702     New York       .568
San Antonio    .641     Connecticut    .568
Seattle        .542     Chicago        .488
Los Angeles    .439     Atlanta        .403
Tulsa          .000     Washington     .291

Less movement here; all 12 teams are in the same spot as last week. Notable developments include the Liberty and the Sun now pulling even for the second-best point differential in the East, while Atlanta is closing in on Chicago thanks to three wins in a row. The Storm, meanwhile, closed up part of the gap with San Antonio thanks to Thursday’s win. In fact, the Storm is now ahead of the Silver Stars in the Hollinger Power Rankings (which give less weight to the season’s early games, which saw San Antonio start strong).

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .731    3.7
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .708    3.7
Penny Taylor        PHO   .752    3.2
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .652    2.9
Sue Bird            SEA   .635    2.6
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .641    2.6
Katie Douglas       IND   .654    2.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .654    2.2
Renee Montgomery    CON   .646    2.1
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .629    2.1

It’s a great time for guards in the WNBA. While the three most valuable players in the league by WARP have all been forwards or center Sylvia Fowles, the rest of the top 10 is exclusively made up of guards. This is partially just one of those things – just one of the next 10 players is a guard – but also reflects a lot of talent coming into the league on the perimeter, with Renee Montgomery and Epiphanny Prince, for two, emerging as All-Star talents.

This week we’ll start taking a look at some of the component statistics that measure players’ value in certain skills. First up is True Shooting Percentage, the best measure of scoring efficiency. TS% can be thought of as what a player’s field-goal percentage would be if they were still just as efficient but every shot they attempted was a two-pointer. So it values threes and free throws, unlike traditional field-goal percentage.

TS% LEADERS

Player               Tm    TS%
------------------------------
Jenna O'Hea         LAS   .677
Temeka Johnson      PHO   .669
Jeanette Pohlen     IND   .662
Penny Taylor        PHO   .660
Kara Lawson         CON   .641
Ticha Penicheiro    LAS   .626
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .624
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .618
Shalee Lehning      ATL   .617
Rebekkah Brunson    MIN   .607

True Shooting Percentage is best used in conjunction with usage rate, which measures the percentage of a team’s offense a player uses. As players take on a larger role, their efficiency naturally tends to decrease. So looking strictly at True Shooting Percentage often favors role players, and in particular three-point specialists. Rookies Jenna O’Hea and Jeanette Pohlen both fall into that category.

What’s really impressive is to maintain a high TS% with a go-to role on offense. That’s part of what makes Penny Taylor, a perennial fixture on this list, such a valuable player. Same with Sylvia Fowles.

The two most surprising names to me were Ticha Penicheiro and Shalee Lehning, neither of whom is known for their scoring or shooting. Penicheiro has hit two-thirds of the limited three-pointers she’s attempted this season; it’s been turnovers, not missed shots, that have put Penicheiro on the bench in L.A.

We’re a week away from the All-Star break and as of today more than 40 percent of the WNBA’s regular-season schedule is complete, believe it or not. Here’s the latest advanced statistical breakdown of the league. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.8     Minnesota      94.7
San Antonio   106.4     Chicago        96.9
New York      106.1     Seattle        97.0
Los Angeles   105.9     New York       99.7
Minnesota     105.8     Indiana       100.0
Indiana       105.5     San Antonio   100.3
Connecticut   102.6     LEAGUE        101.6
LEAGUE        101.6     Atlanta       101.7
Washington     98.3     Connecticut   101.9
Chicago        98.0     Phoenix       103.4
Seattle        96.5     Los Angeles   106.4
Atlanta        93.5     Washington    107.3
Tulsa          89.6     Tulsa         110.0

Suddenly, the Mercury offense has become significantly more efficient than any other in the league. The style Phoenix playing right now – dominant offense and decent defense – has been a highly successful one for the Mercury in the past. On defense, the big mover last week was the Liberty, which vaulted from eighth to fourth. Playing the league’s two worst offenses will help that process, but New York also did a good job defensively against the Connecticut Sun in a game lost by uncharacteristically poor offense.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .753     Indiana        .610
Phoenix        .735     New York       .586
San Antonio    .687     Connecticut    .558
Seattle        .525     Chicago        .498
Los Angeles    .459     Atlanta        .345
Tulsa          .000     Washington     .292

With the Fever slumping a bit, the East has gotten much tighter at the top. Chicago still has the opportunity to make it a four-team race. In the West, Phoenix has leapfrogged San Antonio in terms of point differential. The Tulsa Shock has struggled so badly recently that a team with the Shock’s point differential would not be expected to win all season. Obviously that’s preposterous, and differential isn’t meant to be taken so literally at the extremes, but there is a lot of room for improvement in Tulsa’s current form.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Sue Bird            SEA   .639    2.2
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .628    1.9
Swin Cash           SEA   .607    1.9
Maya Moore          MIN   .608    1.6
Candace Parker      LAS   .728    1.5

Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .659    2.6
Katie Douglas       IND   .697    2.5
Tamika Catchings    IND   .736    3.3
Angel McCoughtry    ATL   .526    0.8
Tina Charles        CON   .606    1.8

We’ll look first at the starting lineups for Saturday’s All-Star Game. In the West, despite being injured, Candace Parker is still the most valuable center, so it’s hard to be too critical of fans voting her into the game. Personally, I think there’s fan voting for a reason, so I wouldn’t complain anyways. The healthy selection who’s drawn the most ire is rookie Maya Moore, who led all players in balloting. Moore has, statistically, been better than you’d believe from that reaction. She’s a versatile contributor and rarely turns the ball over. Teammate Rebekkah Brunson has been better, certainly (to say nothing of Penny Taylor) but Moore would belong in contention for a spot as a reserve.

In the East, I’d have gone Sylvia Fowles over Tina Charles, but again Charles belongs on the team. Angel McCoughtry’s low WARP total stands out. However, the alternatives at forward in the East were also relatively week.

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Penny Taylor        PHO   .743    2.9
Candice Dupree      PHO   .621    1.9
Rebekkah Brunson    MIN   .640    1.9
Danielle Adams      SAS   .737    1.9
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .639    1.8
Becky Hammon        SAS   .638    1.8
Kristi Toliver      LAS   .639    1.6
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .621    1.4
Sophia Young        SAS   .583    1.3
Jia Perkins         SAS   .592    1.2

Now let’s take a look at the reserves and fill out a ballot. (Like Storm Head  Coach Brian Agler, I’ll vote strictly for players from the other West teams.) At guard, Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen are easy choices. At forward, I’ll go for the Mercury’s duo of Taylor and Candice Dupree. That leaves the matter of center, where the best player in terms of WARP has been Phoenix’s Kara Braxton (1.1). I’d argue Brunson, who occasionally plays the pivot, ought to be eligible. If the picks are made strictly by positions on the ballot, then I’m going to use the loophole to pick rookie Danielle Adams, who wasn’t on the ballot as a reserve, and make Brunson a utility pick.

Strictly by the numbers, Kristi Toliver would be the president’s choice to replace the injured Parker on the roster, but I’d probably lean toward giving the hometown crowd another representative and choosing Sophia Young.

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .715    3.3
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .635    2.4
Renee Montgomery    CON   .634    1.9
Jessica Davenport   IND   .628    1.6
Essence Carson      NYL   .658    1.6
Kia Vaughn          NYL   .535    1.3
Kara Lawson         CON   .562    1.1
Nicole Powell       NYL   .537    1.1
Plenette Pierson    NYL   .528    1.0
Nicky Anosike       WAS   .515    0.9

In the East, if Fowles isn’t the backup center, we should call off the whole competition. Fortunately, I think we’ll be OK there. At guard, it’s the young duo of Renee Montgomery and Epiphanny Prince that has claimed places on the roster. The utility spot goes to Indiana’s Jessica Davenport, in the midst of a breakout season. Forward is a little trickier. If I could stretch positions, I’d pick Essence Carson, the best of a bunch of Liberty options near the middle of the East pack. Otherwise, Nicole Powell or Plenette Pierson is an acceptable pick. For the last spot, I’m going slightly off the board to take Crystal Langhorne. Langhorne’s just outside the top 10 East non-starters in WARP in part due to injury, and she has a better track record of success.