Archive for the ‘WNBA’ Category

Phoenix Forces Deciding Game 5

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

Phoenix 90, Indiana 77 (Series tied 2-2)
Pace: 79.7
Offensive Ratings: Phoenix 111.1, Indiana 98.2

Most of the time, the sport of basketball is too complex to be reduced to one factor. Tonight was not most of the time. In every major category save one, the Indiana Fever had the upper hand on the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals. However, the disparity between the two teams’ shooting from beyond the three-point line proved decisive in the Mercury’s 13-point victory,  which forces a deciding Game 5 on Friday at the US Airways Center in Phoenix (6:00 p.m., ESPN2).

In a considerable upset, the Fever actually outscored the Mercury from beyond the arc in the first three games of this series, making 24 triples to Phoenix’s 23. Tonight saw the Mercury find its perimeter stroke, making 10 three-pointers – four of them by Tangela Smith, the WNBA’s leader in three-point accuracy during the regular season. Meanwhile, Indiana had a night to forget in terms of long-distance shooting. The biggest culprit was Katie Douglas, who was 1-of-7 from beyond the arc, but the whole team contributed to a dismal 2-for-18 effort. While the Fever was unlikely to continue its lights-out shooting from early in this series, the 11.1 percent accuracy was a season low.

Give credit to the Phoenix defense for some splendid rotations that allowed the Mercury to clamp down on the paint while still contesting on the perimeter. However, Indiana got makeable looks that simply would not fall for Douglas or rookie Briann January (who missed all four of her three-point attempts and shot 1-of-9 overall). It was, in a phrase, one of those nights for the Fever. Those are tough to survive against a team as potent as the Mercury.

Besides exhorting her team to attack the basket, as ESPN’s microphones caught her doing on several occasions, I’m not sure what Lin Dunn’s options were. Douglas is far too good to bench even on a night where she is shooting so poorly. While January did not shoot the ball well, Indiana was nearly even (-2) with her on the floor but was outscored by 11 when starter Tully Bevilaqua ran the point.

One possible personnel adjustment could be at center, where Tammy Sutton-Brown has had immense difficulty chasing Smith around in this series. The math still worked in the Fever’s favor when Sutton-Brown was dominating the paint at the other end, but Smith largely quieted her tonight. Sutton-Brown scored 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting and gathered just three rebounds. Jessica Moore fouled out in eight minutes of action, so she wasn’t really an option, but I’m surprised we didn’t see more of Jessica Davenport. During her brief three-minute stint, Davenport completed a three-point play.

On the other side, Corey Gaines tightened up his rotation. The fivesome of Cappie Pondexter, Smith, Diana Taurasi, Penny Taylor and Le’Coe Willingham each played over 30 minutes, and Temeka Johnson (who would have played more if not for foul trouble) was the only other Phoenix player to see at least 10 minutes of action. DeWanna Bonner saw her minutes slashed dramatically, while Nicole Ohlde made a brief cameo and Ketia Swanier received a DNP-CD for the first time in the postseason. It worked, as basically every Mercury regular was effective. The depth of contributions – four players scored at least 16 points – allowed Phoenix to overcome the fact that the Fever again did a good job of slowing Taurasi.

The best outcome tonight was from the league’s perspective, as we’ll get a fifth and final game in a series that has been a showcase for WNBA basketball played at its highest level. Interest continues to pour in from fans of the game who have never really followed the W before. Intensity should be at a fever pitch on Friday, and this series has already been played with tremendous energy and passion as the two teams follow the lead of their uber-competitive superstars, Taurasi and Tamika Catchings. Fortunately, it’s been clean – even a brief incident between January and Johnson tonight was resolved quickly and amicably.

I was a little concerned by the way the Fever players seemed to be hanging their heads after the game, as if implying they felt they’d blown their shot at winning this series. Certainly this was Indiana’s best shot, what with fans again packing Conseco Fieldhouse. However, we know both that the Fever can win at the US Airways Center and that it’s possible to go on the road and win the deciding game of the WNBA Finals, as Phoenix did two years ago. This series is a long ways from over, and that’s great news for fans who are enjoying every minute.

WNBA Finals, Game 4: What to Watch For

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

(Apologies for the lack of a Game 3 recap. Since I’ve been busy, I’ll turn this into more of a forward-looking post on tonight’s Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, which tips off at 4:30 p.m. Pacific on ESPN2.)

Indiana 86, Phoenix 85 (Indiana leads series 2-1)
Pace: 80.5
Offensive Ratings: Indiana 109.5, Phoenix 103.8

The Phoenix Mercury badly wanted Sunday’s Game 3. Of course, this being a best-of-five series, both teams want to win every game. However, Phoenix was able to shake off a Game 2 loss and look ahead. That was more challenging in the wake of Sunday’s loss, as Phoenix Stan from SwishAppeal reported from the Mercury locker room. Head Coach Corey Gaines also revealed the importance he placed on winning with his rotation. Diana Taurasi played 37 minutes, the most she’s played in any game this postseason, while Cappie Pondexter was at 33. Gaines brought his starters back more quickly than usual during the fourth quarter, going with the potent trio of Taurasi, Pondexter and Penny Taylor for the game’s final 9:07.

Now, Phoenix must win to extend the series and return home for Game 5, and Taurasi used the word “desperate” in talking with reporters yesterday (as reported by ESPN.com’s Mechelle Voepel). It would be a mistake to say that the Mercury needs to make big changes. After all, if Tangela Smith’s buzzer-beater had gone in, Phoenix would be a win away from the championship. The busy Voepel pointed to one of the most important things the Mercury could use tonight: improved production from DeWanna Bonner. The recipient of the WNBA’s Sixth Woman Award has fallen silent during the Finals, averaging 7.7 points on 38.9 percent shooting.

Lin Dunn said before the series that the Fever’s goal was to stop Diana Taurasi, and her team has been equal to the task. The WNBA’s MVP has been limited to 32.7 percent accuracy from the field and 6-of-26 shooting from downtown. That defensive attention should open things up for the Mercury’s secondary options. Le’Coe Willingham took advantage in Game 3, and Penny Taylor has been strong most of the series. It’s Bonner who could get the Phoenix offense back near its usual efficiency by shooting the ball better.

Also worth watching tonight: how Gaines uses Temeka Johnson. Phoenix’s starting point guard hit some big shots in Game 1, but has been largely invisible the last two games. She had the worst plus-minus of any Mercury starter on Sunday (-9; Taurasi, at -1, was the only other Phoenix starter in the negatives) and barely played in the fourth quarter. With everything on the line, will Gaines be more aggressive in benching Johnson to play Pondexter and Taurasi together in the backcourt?

Mercury Wins Game 1 Shootout

Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Phoenix 120, Indiana 116 (OT)
Pace: 82.4 (scaled to 40 minutes)
Offensive Ratings: Phoenix 132.0, Indiana122.8

It wasn’t for the defensive purists, but for the rest of us Game 1 of the WNBA Finals was a treat. For four quarters, Indiana and Phoenix matched each other point for point, producing the first overtime in the Finals since Connecticut and Sacramento needed the extra session in Game 2 of their series in 2005. With Tamika Catchings fouling out, Katie Douglas nearly carried the Fever to an improbable road win, but the Mercury got a pair of timely stops and two crucial buckets from Cappie Pondexter to pull out the win.

Other writers, including the incomparable Mechelle Voepel and Phoenix Stan over at SwishAppeal.com, have touched on just what a phenomenal game this was to watch. I’m going to focus on the strategic implications.

In contrast to what I suggested in my preview, Lin Dunn essentially eschewed smallball, choosing to make Corey Gaines match up with her personnel rather than the other way around. Dunn deserves a lot of credit for making that gutsy decision, and I generally tend to prefer dictating the matchups. Indiana did use Tully Bevilaqua and Briann January together in the backcourt at times, but only to give Douglas a break. The Fever never put Catchings at the four spot, going with a three-post rotation of Ebony Hoffman, Jessica Moore and Tammy Sutton-Brown. It worked brilliantly. Hoffman had the game of her life, scoring a career-high 27 points on 12-of-14 shooting and doing an excellent job of staying with smaller Mercury players on the other end. Sutton-Brown was tough to stop in the paint, scoring 19 points.

It was Gaines who had to counter by going to Nicole Ohlde at center in place of starter Tangela Smith. Ohlde did a much better job of contending with Sutton-Brown down low, though the magnitude of the discrepancy is still mind-boggling. In Ohlde’s 19-plus minutes of action, Phoenix outscored Indiana by a remarkable 24 points. The Mercury was -20 with Smith on the floor despite the fact that she scored 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting. It was that kind of game.

Gaines’ other interesting move was putting Diana Taurasi at guard for the final 6:27 of regulation and the entirety of overtime. That allowed Phoenix to better match up against Douglas’ size (Penny Taylor played her down the stretch, with Taurasi defending Catchings and vice versa) and kept both Taylor and DeWanna Bonner on the court, but at the expense of benching a starting guard. Amazingly, Pondexter was not on the floor for more than five minutes late in the fourth quarter, finally returning for defensive purposes with 26.6 seconds left. She then played the duration of the game as the Mercury sat Temeka Johnson and went without a true point guard.

I can’t imagine Gaines was thinking in these terms, but ultimately Pondexter was the freshest player on the court in overtime, and Phoenix ran high screen-and-rolls for her rather than going to Taurasi or Taylor with the game on the line. Throughout the season, the Mercury has had success late in games by virtue of its opponents getting fatigued. Last night, Pondexter and Taurasi were the lone Phoenix players over 30 minutes in a game that went 45. By contrast, all five Fever starters played at least 30 and Douglas was on the floor more than 40 minutes. This series is spaced out enough that Indiana will have time to rest (there are two days off between Games 2 and 3 and again between Games 3 and 4 and none of the back-to-backs we saw in the conference finals), but still you have to think that will work in the Mercury’s favor over the course of this series.

Final WNBA Advanced Stats

Tuesday, September 15th, 2009

For a statistical analyst, there’s nothing better than the end of the season. Finally, the numbers will stop fluctuating and be fixed for all eternity. This year, the fact that most of the playoffs were set entering the season’s final weekend created some oddities in terms of the final numbers. Most meaningful was Phoenix missing out on the best Offensive Rating in WNBA history while playing two games after clinching the top spot in the Western Conference. Still, the league finished with an average Offensive Rating of 100.4, cracking triple-digits for the first time in the most offensive (in a good way) season the league has ever seen.

Plenty of preformatted tables after the jump …

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WNBA Stats Entering the Final Week

Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

As we enter the final week of the WNBA’s regular season, there is still some movement in the advanced stats. Most notably, the league’s Offensive Rating continues to creep ever higher, with teams around the league now averaging a record 100.5 points per 100 possessions. Whether it is because of the opportunity to move back training camp and have everyone around, the culmination of rules changes (and reinterpretations, in the case of hand-checking) designed to emphasize offense or simply the rising talent level around the league, the WNBA has never before played such an exciting, entertaining brand of basketball.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       110.1     Indiana        94.3
Minnesota     103.9     Seattle        96.9
San Antonio   101.9     Los Angeles    97.8
Atlanta       101.7     Atlanta        98.6
Chicago       100.8     Washington     98.7
AVERAGE       100.5     New York       98.8
Sacramento    100.0     Connecticut    99.0
Seattle        99.8     Detroit        99.5
Indiana        99.6     AVERAGE       100.5
Connecticut    99.3     Sacramento    103.3
Detroit        99.2     San Antonio   103.5
New York       96.9     Minnesota     104.9
Washington     96.5     Chicago       105.3
Los Angeles    96.1     Phoenix       106.0

If the Phoenix maintains its current pace – and the Mercury does have something to play for this week, home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with Indiana – the team will join the 2000 Houston Comets as the only in WNBA history to average at least 110 points per 100 possessions. Moving up this week are the San Antonio Silver Stars, who have found unexpected scoring punch during a late playoff push that still has them in control of their own destiny for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Headed the other direction: the Storm and the Indiana Fever, in both cases due to injuries to star players. Without Katie Douglas, the Fever has reverted to its old all-D, no-offense style. The Storm’s offense has had its moments since Lauren Jackson was sidelined by a back injury, but turnovers have taken a toll on the team’s efficiency. At the same time, the Storm’s defense has surged into second in the league behind only Indiana.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        21.2     Indiana        21.2
Seattle        19.3     Atlanta        19.0
Los Angeles    16.8     Connecticut    17.4
San Antonio    15.6     Detroit        16.7
Minnesota      15.3     New York       15.9
Sacramento     13.7     Washington     15.8
                        Chicago        12.9

The Fever and the Mercury are in essentially a flat-footed tie in terms of point differential (Indiana is +116 over 31 games, Phoenix +120 over 32). The Pythagorean method, which emphasizes the fact that a four-point differential is different in a 90-86 game than an 80-76 one, has the lower-scoring Fever comfortably ahead. It is possible, depending upon the results of the final week, that just four teams finish with positive scoring margins.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .730    7.9
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .742    7.3
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .733    6.7
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .707    6.7
Becky Hammon        SAS   .677    6.5
Janel McCarville    NYL   .675    5.3
Cappie Pondexter    PHO   .615    5.2
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .648    5.2
Lindsay Whalen      CON   .618    4.9
Erika de Souza      ATL   .631    4.8

With injuries striking other leaders – Nicky Anosike sat out Saturday with a sore left knee, joining Jackson on the sidelines – it appears Tamika Catchings will lead the league in WARP. This is hardly unfamiliar territory for Catchings, a perennial favorite of the numbers above and beyond her stellar reputation in the league. Elsewhere, Cappie Pondexter used a good week to surge all the way from out of the top 10 to seventh in the WNBA.

Storm Rising in Latest WNBA Stats

Tuesday, September 1st, 2009

On the strength of the current five-game winning streak, the Seattle Storm has clinched a playoff berth and firmly established a foothold amongst the league’s top three teams. Naturally, that strong play over the last two weeks is reflected in the Storm’s advanced stats. The team again rates as one of the most balanced in the WNBA, ranking in the top five in both offense and defense. Let’s see how the Storm compares to its peers around the league.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       109.3     Indiana        93.8
Minnesota     104.2     Los Angeles    96.3
Atlanta       101.0     Seattle        97.3
Seattle       100.9     Atlanta        97.6
San Antonio   100.8     Connecticut    98.4
Indiana       100.4     Washington     98.5
Chicago       100.4     New York       98.6
AVERAGE       100.4     Detroit       100.4
Connecticut    99.6     AVERAGE       100.4
Sacramento     99.2     Sacramento    103.2
Detroit        98.9     San Antonio   103.7
New York       97.5     Chicago       105.2
Washington     96.4     Minnesota     105.6
Los Angeles    95.6     Phoenix       105.8

A little reshuffling on both ends of the floor. The Silver Stars, as much as they have struggled defensively, continue to score the ball efficiently and have in fact moved into the league’s top five offenses. At the other end, the Storm’s big move is apparent in the team emerging from a pack of contenders as the third-best defense in the WNBA on a per-possession basis.

The “defense wins championships” believers may want to avert their eyes from the bottom of the Defensive Rating chart. Not only will Phoenix be the favorite in the West with the league’s worst defense, the last three defenses in the league could all make the postseason.

Overall, offense took another slight jump around the league, and we’re now all but certain to see the final league Offensive Rating be over 100 points per 100 possessions, a nice milestone.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.4     Indiana        22.1
Seattle        20.0     Atlanta        19.4
Los Angeles    17.7     Connecticut    18.0
Minnesota      14.9     New York       16.2
San Antonio    14.8     Detroit        16.0
Sacramento     13.1     Washington     15.9
                        Chicago        12.8

The only real change in the point differential numbers over the last week was the Sun sliding after losses in Seattle and Phoenix. It’s hard to separate the two contenders for the last playoff spot in the West, while three of the four contenders for the last spot in the East are essentially equal – Chicago continues to lag behind.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .725    6.9
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .734    6.9
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .733    6.7
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .726    6.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .683    6.1
Janel McCarville    NYL   .692    5.3
Lindsay Whalen      CON   .630    4.9
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .644    4.7
Shameka Christon    NYL   .615    4.6
Jia Perkins         CHI   .631    4.5

We have a new leader on the WARP board for the first time in a while. Nicky Anosike had a quiet week, allowing fellow Tennessee alum Tamika Catchings to take over the top spot. Lauren Jackson might have been your leader had she not been sidelined indefinitely with stress fractures in her lower back. Alas, now the race between Anosike and Catchings and maybe Diana Taurasi.

Individually, the big mover is Lindsay Whalen. For all the talk of Whalen’s “down season,” she has come out well by WARP all year long and now has surged into the WNBA’s top 10 in WARP after averaging 16.0 points and 6.3 assists in four games last week.

Weekly Stats: Explaining the Rising Sparks

Monday, August 24th, 2009

The big story of the week in the WNBA is the Los Angeles Sparks, who went 4-0 to move from out of the Western Conference Playoffs to sitting third and even starting to put a bit of a scare into the Storm. I don’t think this surprised anyone, given the additions the Sparks made midseason (a healthy Lisa Leslie and Candace Parker, who may not quite be herself yet but is still the odds-on favorite to win Player of the Week) and their friendly schedule over the second half of the season. Still, I didn’t quite expect L.A. to ascend the Western Conference standings quite this quickly, and for that the Sparks can thank Minnesota (six straight losses) and San Antonio (five losses in the last six games) for that.

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Weekly WNBA Stats

Tuesday, August 18th, 2009

No catchy intro today. Alas, these ratings are already a bit outdated, with the Storm having completed a victory in Detroit. Still, for posterity’s sake …

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       109.3     Indiana        93.6
Minnesota     104.5     Connecticut    95.6
Indiana       102.3     Los Angeles    96.8
San Antonio   100.5     Atlanta        97.3
Atlanta       100.5     New York       98.1
Seattle       100.4     Washington     98.6
AVERAGE       100.2     Seattle        98.7
Chicago        99.8     Detroit       100.0
Connecticut    99.7     AVERAGE       100.2
Sacramento     99.1     San Antonio   102.8
Washington     97.3     Sacramento    104.1
New York       96.5     Minnesota     104.3
Detroit        96.3     Chicago       104.6
Los Angeles    93.6     Phoenix       106.0

The big jump on the offensive side is by San Antonio. Scoring a franchise-record 106 points, as the Silver Stars did Saturday against the Mercury, will do that. At the same time, have you noticed the Silver Stars struggling on defense? I know full well the danger of looking at point totals, but San Antonio has allowed 85-plus points in seven of the last eight games and has slipped to ninth in the league in Defensive Rating. Who would have figured the Silver Stars for an all-offense team?

Also, it’s time to take Atlanta seriously as a contender. The Dream and the Indiana Fever are the only teams in the league in the top five in both offense and defense. That label once applied to the Storm, but now Seattle is just outside the top five in both categories.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.2     Indiana        23.4
Seattle        18.5     Connecticut    20.6
Minnesota      16.0     Atlanta        19.4
Los Angeles    16.0     Washington     16.6
San Antonio    15.3     New York       15.8
Sacramento     12.2     Detroit        14.1
                        Chicago        13.0

A 17-point loss at the AT&T Center brought the Mercury back to a crowded pack in the Western Conference.  In the East, point differential is now reflecting three different tiers – Indiana, then Atlanta and Connecticut, then everyone else. As discussed time and again in this space, we’ll see when or if the East’s actual standings follow suit.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .752    6.1
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .729    5.8
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .739    5.8
Tamika Catchings    IND   .724    5.7
Becky Hammon        SAS   .718    5.6
Jia Perkins         CHI   .677    4.7
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .686    4.4
Janel McCarville    NYL   .671    4.3
Shameka Christon    NYL   .633    4.1
Cappie Pondexter    PHO   .614    4.1

In case you were curious, Lauren Jackson’s 36-point effort tonight against the Shock was alone worth 0.5 WARP and is enough to bump her back atop the leaderboard. Beyond that, things seem to have pretty well shaken out by this point.

WNBA Offensive Ratings Reach New Heights

Monday, August 10th, 2009

A week away, the Wall Street Journal’s relatively new and analytical sports section ran a feature in “The Count” looking at scoring in the WNBA. As if on cue, the WNBA’s league-wide Offensive Rating surged forward and hit a milestone last week – an even 100.0 points per 100 possessions around the league. I’ve been doing weekly ratings for the last couple of years now, and I can’t remember ever seeing the league average in triple digits. For comparison, the league’s Offensive Rating was 98.9 points per 100 possessions a year ago and topped out at 99.1 in 2006.

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Parity in the WNBA Stats

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The numbers are a day late today, but they still go only through Sunday (and do not include this morning’s Silver Stars win in L.A.) I want to talk a little about the WNBA’s parity (and a few things that quantify it), but for now we start with the Offensive and Defensive Rating rankings.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       108.9     Indiana        92.8
Minnesota     103.4     Connecticut    96.2
Seattle       101.6     Los Angeles    96.7
Indiana       101.4     Atlanta        97.5
Chicago        99.8     Seattle        97.7
AVERAGE        99.8     New York       97.9
Atlanta        99.6     Washington     98.9
Washington     99.1     AVERAGE        99.8
Connecticut    98.9     San Antonio    99.9
Sacramento     98.5     Detroit       101.0
San Antonio    98.3     Minnesota     103.2
Detroit        96.9     Sacramento    103.5
New York       95.4     Phoenix       105.0
Los Angeles    92.1     Chicago       105.4

The interesting case this week is that of the Los Angeles Sparks, who remain dead last in the WNBA in Offensive Rating but have moved up to third in Defensive Rating after Saturday’s slugfest with the Sacramento Monarchs. The per-possession ratings have shown for the last year-plus that, for all their offensive talent, the Sparks are better at stopping opponents than scoring. Still, this discrepancy is pretty remarkable.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.9     Indiana        22.9
Seattle        20.9     Connecticut    19.5
Minnesota      16.3     Atlanta        18.8
San Antonio    15.6     Washington     18.1
Los Angeles    14.3     New York       15.4
Sacramento     11.9     Detroit        13.7
                        Chicago        11.9

I feel sometimes like nobody believes me when I talk about the parity in the WNBA this year. Fortunately, Brian Agler has my back. As he pointed out Saturday, if the right teams had won and lost, it was possible for only three teams (Phoenix, Indiana and the Storm) to end the day above .500. Even the seeming extremes of the league – the aforementioned three teams and Sacramento at the bottom – come back to the pack when we look at point differential.

We’re in a league where the Atlanta Dream beat the Mercury by 30 points last week, which, incidentally, is why Phoenix is now decimal points ahead of the West in the Expected Wins standings. So far this season, there have been 13 overtime games; last year there were 17 all year. Similar story with games decided by three points or fewer – 25 last year, 24 this season already. The Storm has played a ton of close games all in a row, and it shouldn’t be a surprise anymore. The league is that even.

Differential also suggests the Sparks and Silver Stars have a pretty good shot at surpassing the Lynx with their additions. In the East, the Liberty and Sky retain their anomalous flip-flopped positions.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .753    5.1
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .762    5.0
Tamika Catchings    IND   .743    4.9
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .752    4.7
Becky Hammon        SAS   .746    4.6
Jia Perkins         CHI   .698    4.2
Shameka Christon    NYL   .680    3.7
Cappie Pondexter    PHO   .622    3.6
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .663    3.4
Charde Houston      MIN   .665    3.0

It looks like we’ve got a very interesting race for MVP shaping up down the stretch. Last week, Q handicapped the field and made Nicky Anosike his favorite, which surprised even me. However, her net plus-minus numbers back up what her Wins Above Replacement Player also show in terms of her indispensibility tot he Lynx. Now, things have tightened up and we have five players separated by a half a win. Any of them – or Cappie Pondexter, who still comes out low by my numbers – have the chance to seize control and become the favorite with a strong finish to the season.