After two big games Saturday night, the Western Conference Playoff picture is taking shape. Let’s look at where we stand currently, with the Storm still a half-game ahead of the Phoenix Mercury for second place in the West and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   7   -    1/2
Seattle        19  13  5.5   2/0
Phoenix        18  13  6.0   2/1
San Antonio    15  16  9.0   1/2
Los Angeles    13  18 11.0   3/0

More telling are the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     25.9  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Seattle       20.1   .00   .64   .36   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.0   .00   .36   .64   .00   .00
San Antonio   17.2   .00   .00   .00   .93   .06
Los Angeles   14.9   .00   .00   .00   .07   .93
Tulsa          3.3   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

So the obvious note here is that the Storm and the Mercury are now locked into second and third per our simulation. There is a scenario where Phoenix could slip to fourth by losing out with the San Antonio Silver Stars winning out, but our model regards this as impossible because the Mercury’s home game against Tulsa is statistically such a sure thing.

The Storm will definitely finish either second or third and has the inside track on second. A win next Friday against Phoenix would lock it up.

Los Angeles is still alive for fourth. The Sparks will need to beat San Antonio in L.A. on Tuesday and then get some help. The Sparks have a legitimate chance, but it’s going to be tough to make up two games with three to play.

The likely Storm scenarios:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 64%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 36%

This much we know: The Storm is in the playoffs. Where the team will finish and who will line up on the other side when the WNBA Playoffs start Sept. 15 is still unclear.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   7   -    1/2
Seattle        18  13  6.0   2/1
Phoenix        17  13  6.5   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  8.5   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 10.5   3/1

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       21.6   .83   .12   .03   .01   .00
Connecticut   20.7   .14   .68   .10   .08   .00
New York      19.4   .02   .15   .67   .16   .00
Atlanta       18.9   .02   .07   .19   .72   .00
Chicago       15.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     25.9  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .44   .46   .11   .00
Seattle       19.5   .00   .56   .40   .04   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .14   .79   .06
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .06   .94
Tulsa          3.3   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Indiana’s three-game losing streak has thrown the Eastern Conference into significant chaos. Any finish of the top four teams in the East is possible with them separated by just 2.5 games. Despite winning a blowout, Atlanta was the loser, as New York’s surprising victory in Minnesota solidified the Liberty’s chances of a top-three seed.

In the West, it’s today’s matchups – the Storm at San Antonio and Phoenix at Los Angeles – that are likely to be telling. Today’s win did bump up the Storm’s chances of finishing second in the West. With a win tonight, the Storm can essentially ensure finishing no worse than third. I haven’t played out all the scenarios, but I don’t see one where the Silver Stars could finish ahead of the Storm without winning tonight.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 45%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 40%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 11%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 4%

Just two games in the WNBA last night, but both had playoff implications. In the East, Atlanta’s run was stopped by Washington as the Dream badly missed Erika De Souza. Out West, San Antonio blew past Phoenix to get back in the mix for one of the top three spots in the conference.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   6   -    2/2
Seattle        17  13  7.0   2/2
Phoenix        17  13  7.0   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  9.0   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 11.0   3/1

The Storm currently would be the second seed by virtue of winning the tie with the Mercury. Last night’s Phoenix loss was also important because it gives the Storm some margin for error. As long as the Storm wins next Friday’s matchup with the Mercury, the team can afford to lose another game along the way and finish second no matter what.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.2   .92   .06   .02   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.3   .07   .73   .13   .08   .00
Atlanta       18.6   .01   .12   .36   .51   .00
New York      18.4   .00   .11   .50   .39   .00
Chicago       15.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.8   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.8  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .52   .38   .10   .00
Seattle       19.2   .00   .47   .44   .09   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .19   .75   .05
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .05   .95
Tulsa          3.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Atlanta’s loss didn’t really open the door for Chicago. The Sky made the playoffs in precisely one of the 500 simulations (and what a fascinating finish that must have been). The Dream is now most likely to finish fourth because New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. That shouldn’t thrill the Fever, though Atlanta is clearly a different team without De Souza.

In the West, San Antonio’s win helped and hurt the Storm. The upside is that the Storm is now much more likely to finish in second place in the conference. The downside is that there’s now a realistic chance the Storm finishes fourth and has to play Minnesota in the opening round. Phoenix has a higher chance of being fourth because the Silver Stars earned the tiebreaker against the Mercury, while the Storm would win a tie with San Antonio (as well as, by about any scenario I can envision, a three-team tie). We’ll know a little more after tonight and a lot more once the Storm has faced the Silver Stars on Saturday in a crucial game.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(3) at Phoenix (2): 43%
(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 37%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 10%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 9%

With last night’s win over the Los Angeles Sparks, the Storm is on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. In fact, based on my research (not yet confirmed by any outside sources), that could happen before the Storm takes the court Tuesday in Los Angeles. A Storm win will secure a playoff spot, as will a Sparks loss. In addition, a San Antonio loss should also do the trick. First, take a look at the standings and I’ll explain why.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      23   6   -    3/2
Seattle        17  12  6.0   2/3
Phoenix        16  12  6.5   3/3
San Antonio    13  15  9.5   4/2
Los Angeles    12  17 11.0   4/1

Los Angeles hosts the Silver Stars on Sept. 6, so the Sparks winning out would mean at least one more loss for San Antonio. So if the Silver Stars lost before then, the worst-case scenario for the Storm would be a three-way tie at 17-17 with San Antonio and Los Angeles. As best I can tell, the Storm would win any such tie.

The Storm is also closing in on guaranteeing a top-three spot in the West, which would mean avoiding the Minnesota Lynx in the first round of the playoffs. Two wins, or a win and a San Antonio loss, would do the trick.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.7   .91   .07   .01   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.8   .06   .76   .14   .04   .00
Atlanta       18.7   .02   .12   .43   .41   .01
New York      18.1   .00   .05   .41   .44   .10
Chicago       15.8   .00   .00   .02   .10   .89
Washington     6.1   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.7  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.1   .00   .46   .50   .04   .00
Seattle       19.8   .00   .54   .45   .01   .00
San Antonio   17.0   .00   .00   .05   .83   .12
Los Angeles   14.6   .00   .00   .00   .13   .87
Tulsa          3.7   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

While the West is beginning to take shape, Atlanta’s win over Indiana and Chicago holding off New York have combined to muddle the East picture. Suddenly, the Dream has an outside shot at home-court advantage in the first round and is the slight favorite to overtake the Liberty for third place. The Sky’s win kept alive Chicago’s flickering playoff hopes.

Out West, it looks likely that second place will come down to the Storm and the Mercury. Los Angeles still has some chance of coming back to surpass struggling San Antonio for the final spot.

Two other simulation notes: Minnesota now shows up with a 19 percent chance of winning out to match last year’s 28-6 finish by the Storm. Tulsa, meanwhile, is more likely than not to win another game and surpass the 3-27 1998 Washington Mystics for the worst record in league history. Given how well the Shock has played over the last nine games, I’d be a little surprised now if they didn’t win at least once more.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 50%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 45%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 4%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 1%

A big Friday night in the WNBA had huge ramifications on the Western Conference Playoff picture. The Minnesota Lynx handled the San Antonio Silver Stars at home, moving within a win of securing the top spot in the West. At the same time, the Phoenix Mercury was losing a close game to the Connecticut Sun on the road. Later in the evening, the Los Angeles Sparks were stunned at home by the Tulsa Shock, which snapped a 20-game losing streak. The results were all to the benefit of the Storm, which now stands all alone in second in the West. The Storm’s magic number for clinching a playoff spot of some kind is down to a combination of three wins plus Los Angeles losses. With a home-and-home set against the Sparks upcoming, the Storm has a chance to clinch as soon as Tuesday with a sweep.

Here’s how the standings look.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      22   6   -    3/3
Seattle        16  12  6.0   3/3
Phoenix        15  12  6.5   3/4
San Antonio    13  14  8.5   5/2
Los Angeles    12  16 10.0   4/2

Naturally, yesterday’s results also changed things substantially in our 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.6   .92   .07   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.7   .07   .90   .02   .02   .00
New York      18.5   .00   .05   .71   .20   .05
Atlanta       17.9   .00   .01   .25   .72   .02
Chicago       15.3   .00   .00   .02   .06   .92
Washington     6.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.2  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .38   .47   .14   .00
Seattle       19.7   .00   .58   .34   .08   .00
San Antonio   17.6   .00   .04   .18   .67   .10
Los Angeles   14.8   .00   .00   .01   .10   .89
Tulsa          2.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

What’s likely to draw your eye is the fact that the Mercury has a slight edge on the Storm on projected average wins, yet the Storm is much more likely to take the second seed. The explanation is that if the two teams tie, the Storm will almost certainly hold the edge. The best Phoenix can do is tying the season series 2-2 by winning at KeyArena on Sept. 9. However, because the Storm’s conference record (11-6) is much better than the Mercury’s (8-8), I don’t see a possible scenario where the second tie-breaker doesn’t favor the Storm.

Besides the results, changes in the simulation also reflect constantly updating our perceptions of team ability. That benefits the Silver Stars, who got Danielle Adams back in the lineup last night. That might not have made a difference at Minnesota, but will help San Antonio the rest of the season. With five of their last seven games at home, the Silver Stars are looking good for a playoff berth.

One last addition to the simulation was a specific look at which opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 44%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 33%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 14%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 8%
(3) at San Antonio (2): 1%

Last night couldn’t have gone much better for the Storm. After finishing off the San Antonio Silver Stars in an important game, players turned on ESPN2 in the locker room to watch the final minutes of the New York Liberty’s road win over the Phoenix Mercury. The results gave the Storm a cushion of a game and a half over San Antonio for third and put the team a half-game back of Phoenix for second in the Western Conference. Here’s where we stand now, plus a bit on the remaining schedule:

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      21   6   -    4/3
Phoenix        15  11  5.5   2/5
Seattle        15  12  6.0   4/3
San Antonio    13  13  7.5   5/3
Los Angeles    12  15  9.0   5/2

The Storm’s magic number for clinching a playoff berth is now down to a combination of five wins plus Los Angeles losses. Also worth noting is that the Storm now controls its own destiny for the West’s second seed. A win on Sept. 9 would give the Storm the tiebreaker and bring the two teams even in the loss column, so if the Storm wins out, it would win any possible tie with the Mercury.

Naturally, yesterday’s results also changed things in our 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.7   .94   .06   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.4   .05   .88   .04   .02   .00
New York      18.4   .00   .05   .69   .20   .06
Atlanta       17.8   .00   .03   .25   .70   .02
Chicago       15.1   .00   .00   .02   .07   .91
Washington     6.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.1  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.3   .00   .57   .34   .07   .02
Seattle       19.5   .00   .41   .50   .08   .02
San Antonio   17.3   .00   .02   .11   .55   .32
Los Angeles   16.3   .00   .00   .06   .29   .64
Tulsa          1.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

In the East, last night’s home loss to Atlanta was bad news for Chicago, which now makes the postseason in just nine percent of simulations. The Storm’s chances of finishing second in the West doubled after yesterday, with San Antonio now unlikely to finish any better than fifth. The Sparks also improved their odds of making the playoffs. Right now, Los Angeles is just a game and a half back of the Silver Stars.

With three weeks left in the WNBA regular season, it’s time to begin keeping an eye on where the Storm stands in the race for playoff positioning in the Western Conference. With a win and a San Antonio loss on Saturday, the Storm moved into third place in the conference.

Team            W   L   GB
--------------------------
Minnesota      20   6   -
Phoenix        15  10  4.5
Seattle        14  12  6.0
San Antonio    13  12  6.5
Los Angeles    11  15  9.0
Tulsa           1  23 18.0

Minnesota has clinched a playoff berth and Tulsa has been eliminated, but the other three spots remain up for grabs among four teams, including the Storm. Right now, the Storm’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is a combination of six Storm wins plus Los Angeles losses.

Tuesday’s game against San Antonio looms large in the playoff picture. A win would give the Silver Stars back the edge for third place, while a Storm victory would not only extend the lead to 1.5 games but give the Storm the edge in the head-to-head tiebreaker.

To try to get a sense of how much schedule will matter the rest of the way and give a sense of the possible outcomes, I built an Excel spreadsheet with a macro that simulates the remainder of the season 500 times. The simulator also breaks two-team ties correctly, but isn’t yet equipped to handle ties of three or more teams. Based on season performance to date, here’s how we’d expect things to play out, first in the East:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.7   .94   .05   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.3   .05   .91   .04   .00   .00
New York      17.7   .00   .03   .61   .27   .09
Atlanta       17.1   .00   .02   .22   .50   .25
Chicago       15.8   .00   .00   .12   .25   .63
Washington     7.2   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.0  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       21.0   .00   .70   .24   .05   .00
Seattle       19.1   .00   .20   .50   .27   .03
San Antonio   18.2   .00   .10   .24   .57   .09
Los Angeles   15.4   .00   .00   .02   .12   .86
Tulsa          1.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

The top two spots in the East are almost locked up. There’s a little more variability after that,but we’d expect the Liberty and the Dream to round things out. In the West, there are virtually no scenarios where the Lynx finish anywhere but first. The Mercury has the inside track on claiming the second seed and home-court advantage, with the Storm currently ahead of the Silver Stars for third.

However, we know in the West that Lauren Jackson and Candace Parker returning from injuries has changed the playoff picture, as has Danielle Adams‘ absence. If I subjectively adjust the true team strength the rest of the season to reflect that, here are the results:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.2  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.9   .00   .72   .25   .03   .00
Seattle       19.1   .00   .22   .50   .23   .05
San Antonio   17.8   .00   .05   .21   .52   .22
Los Angeles   16.0   .00   .01   .05   .24   .71
Tulsa          1.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

This doesn’t make an enormous difference, which is probably instructive in and of itself. With just eight games remaining,it takes a lot to substantially alter a team’s outlook. But the Sparks do double their chances of making the playoffs. I for one am not ready to write Los Angeles off just yet.

A couple other notes on the simulation, using the subjective version:
- The Storm won at least 20 games 40 percent of the time.
- Eight percent of the time, Minnesota won out to match the WNBA record of 28 wins tied by the Storm last season.
- Tulsa finished with just one win 64 percent of the time, but there was one simulation out of 500 where the Shock ended up with three wins the rest of the way.

Even with a loss to the Minnesota Lynx last night, the Seattle Storm clinched home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs because the Los Angeles Sparks fell to the San Antonio Silver Stars. At the same time, the Storm’s loss and a win by the Phoenix Mercury ensured Phoenix the top overall seed regardless of the outcome of Thursday’s matchup between the two teams at KeyArena, which remains a potential playoff preview.

From the Storm’s perspective, the remaining drama is in terms of a first-round opponent. L.A., Minnesota and San Antonio all still have a shot at the third seed in the West. Both the Sparks and Silver Stars control their own destiny because the two teams face each other again Tuesday at the STAPLES Center. A win would draw San Antonio even in the standings and give the Silver Stars the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Meanwhile, the Lynx will get their own chance at the Sparks on Friday, though they need a lot of help–in addition to winning out, Minnesota needs L.A. to lose at least one of its other two games and San Antonio to lose twice.

As the host in the first round, the Storm will be out on the road to play Game 1 either Wednesday, Sept. 16 or Thursday, Sept. 17. Game 2 will be played at KeyArena either Friday, Sept. 18 or Saturday, Sept. 19. Stay tuned for tickets to that game going on sale. If necessary, the Storm would also host Game 3 on either Sunday, Sept. 20 or Monday, Sept. 21.

Here is a glance at the latest standings after a busy night in the association. While the Storm was winning in New York, Phoenix was falling at Detroit. Later in the evening, L.A. lost at home to Atlanta. Where does that leave us with four games left to go in the season for everyone save Sacramento?

The Storm has not yet clinched home-court advantage. As we explained in the last playoff picture, the Storm needed four wins + L.A. losses to do the trick unless one win/loss was against a Western Conference foe. Since then, the Storm has won two games and the Sparks have lost one, but all against East teams. So while the Storm has clinched at worst a tie for the second-best record in the Western Conference, the tiebreaker between the two teams is not yet decided.

If the Storm lost out and L.A. won out, the teams would both be 19-15, have split the season series 2-2 and have identical 12-8 records within the conference. The next tiebreaker is winning percentage against teams ultimately at or above .500, which is hard to predict because we don’t know whether, say, Connecticut might suddenly get hot and finish at .500. However, under this scenario the Storm and Sparks would have identical records against all the teams currently at or above .500 as well as the two teams most likely to get there (Detroit and Washington, the latter the Storm’s next opponent). That would likely leave us at the little-used fifth head-to-head tiebreaker – point differential in head-to-head matchups, which would favor L.A. by virtue of a blowout win over the Storm at the STAPLES Center in June.

Of course, all of this is moot with a Storm win or a Sparks loss.

Remarkably, with the Mercury losing last night, the Storm now controls its own destiny in the race for the top seed in the West. If the Storm wins out, Phoenix would have to lose again (because the two teams play next Thursday at KeyArena), leaving the teams at worst tied at 23-11. The teams would then have tied the season series and the Storm would have a superior record against other West teams, winning the tiebreaker. That’s why the next two games are huge for the Storm, and why you will want to be at the Key for next Thursday’s Fan Appreciation Night. The road doesn’t get any easier for the Mercury, which plays tonight at Indiana on NBA TV (4:00 p.m.).

There it is, folks, an x in the standings next to the Storm’s name. Last night’s win over Connecticut clinched a playoff berth, the Storm’s sixth straight and seven in the last eight years. Since Sue Bird joined Lauren Jackson in Seattle, the only thing that has kept the Storm out of the playoffs has been a tiebreaker with Minnesota in 2003. However, there is still work to be done.

“It says a lot about our franchise and what we’ve accomplished, but it’s still just making the playoffs,” said Bird after the game.

“We still want to try to position ourselves as best we can,” added Head Coach Brian Agler. “That’s very important. We want to try to get as many wins as possible, because you can only help yourself that way.”

The Storm is a win or a Minnesota loss away from ensuring no worse than third place in the Western Conference based on the tiebreaker situation. When Los Angeles lost last night to Phoenix, that moved the Storm a step closer to securing home-court advantage in the first round. The magic number to clinch at worst the second seed is a combination of four Storm wins and Sparks losses, though it will go down to three if the Storm defeats a Western Conference foe or L.A. loses to another West team (neither of which can happen until Sept. 5). That would ensure the Storm the tie-breaker by virtue of a better record against conference opponents.

The West-leading Mercury still remains within the Storm’s sights. Phoenix has a two-game advantage, but has to come to KeyArena to play on Sept. 10 in the Storm’s regular-season home finale. A win in that game would likely give the Storm the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams.