Archive for June, 2007

Check of the Numbers

Monday, June 18th, 2007

We’re almost a third of the way through the WNBA season, hard as that may be to believe, with most teams having played about 10 games. That makes this a good time for a check of the numbers. As always, check out the Statistical Analysis Primer for more on how they’re calculated and what they mean.

OFFENSIVE RATING

Team          ORating---------------------Indiana         106.7Los Angeles     104.6Seattle         104.3Phoenix         102.8Sacramento       98.9Connecticut      97.7New York         97.4Chicago          97.1Minnesota        96.8Detroit          96.5San Antonio      95.8Washington       92.8Houston          88.7

The Fever continues to lead the league in offense, a big surprise from a team that ranked near the bottom last season. Last year’s leading offense, Phoenix, has not been as strong this year, while Connecticut has fallen way off with the loss of Taj McWilliams-Franklin and slow starts from holdover players. New York has slid as the three-pointers that went in at an unsustainable clip early in the season have started going out. I was surprised to see San Antonio’s offense so low given how well Becky Hammon has played this season.

DEFENSIVE RATING

Team          DRating---------------------Detroit          89.7Sacramento       89.9Indiana          91.7New York         96.2San Antonio      96.3Phoenix          98.2Connecticut      98.8Chicago          98.8Seattle         101.3Los Angeles     101.8Minnesota       105.5Houston         107.9

Detroit and Sacramento have had dominant defenses for years, and nothing has changed. Connecticut has taken an even bigger hit on defense after ranking No. 2 a year ago. That’s not a surprise – Margo Dydek has struggled this year with her back and is never mobile in the best of circumstances, and Erika De Souza hasn’t been able to pick up for Dydek after a fast start.

Bet you’re suprised to see how good Phoenix is on defense.

If you’re looking for the reason the Storm has been inconsistent, you probably need to start at the defensive end of the floor, where Seattle is significantly below average. Here’s how the Storm defense has rated compared to league average under Anne Donovan:

2003: +0.3 (6/14)
2004: +2.2 (2/13)
2005: +0.1 (5/13)
2006: -0.9 (8/14)
2007: -2.9 (10/13)

The championship season was easily the best the Storm has been on defense, and the loss of players like Tully Bevilaqua, Adia Barnes, Sheri Sam and Kamila Vodichkova was felt the next season. Last year saw another slide, but this year the defense has been much worse in the early going.

POINT DIFFERENTIAL

If you go by point differential and expected wins, here’s what the standings would look like in each conference (wins projected to 34 games):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW------------------   ------------------Sacramento    25.1   Indiana       28.8Phoenix       20.0   Detroit       23.5Los Angeles   18.6   New York      17.6Seattle       17.9   Chicago       15.5San Antonio   16.3   Connecticut   15.4Minnesota     11.6   Washington     9.9Houston        1.9

While the East has, at worst, two of the best three teams in the league, there isn’t a lot of depth to the conference until or unless the Sun gets going. Barring that, it looks like an Indy-Detroit showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals. The West is significantly more interesting.

At the individual level, I also took a quick look at the PER leaders in the league:

Player      Tm   PER--------------------Jackson    SEA  35.9Catchings  IND  31.9Taurasi    PHO  27.6Brunson    SAC  26.1Augustus   MIN  25.9

Yeah, LJ is awesome. Rebekkah Brunson is off to a great start and should be an All-Star reserve if there’s any justice.

Turner Returns With Comets

Friday, June 15th, 2007

Barbara Turner is back in Seattle as a member of the Houston Comets. Released by the Storm in the team’s final cut, Turner joined the Comets at the start of June and has gotten an opportunity to start two games in the absence of injured WNBA legend Sheryl Swoopes, averaging 7.2 points and 2.8 rebounds per game.

“Things definitely worked out for the best,” Turner said before the Comets practiced Thursday afternoon. “I’m happy with my new team. They’ve welcomed me with open arms. I feel very comfortable.”

“It’s great,” said Storm Head Coach Anne Donovan. “I think Barbara landed in the perfect spot. Barbara’s one who looks to play minutes, and in Houston she’s a most-time starter. She’s doing a great job for them, so it will be good to see her out there.”

The decision to cut Turner and keep Shyra Ely as the backup small forward remains something of a contentious one. While she feels it worked out for the best, Turner expressed regret about skipping Game 7 of her Turkish team’s Finals series to return to Storm camp, feeling it was too late by that point for her to beat out Ely. Donovan, for her part, wasn’t surprised that Turner got picked elsewhere.

“I was surprised it didn’t come sooner, to be honest,” she said.

Turner was a fan favorite during her rookie season with the Storm, so it will be interesting to see how she is received by KeyArena tomorrow.

“I’m sure they’re going to be very supportive and I’m going to be excited to be in that atmosphere,” said Turner, “but once the ball goes up I’m going to be concerned with the game and trying to get a win.”

On the Storm side, the big storyline at Thursday’s practice was rookie Katie Gearlds, who had a whirlwind trip back to the Midwest. It started with a career game – 17 points and six boards – Tuesday at Chicago. Wednesday, with the Storm visiting Indianapolis, Gearlds had a street named “Katie Gearlds Way” in her honor in her native Beech Grove. Later that day, she played her first regular-season WNBA game at Conseco Fieldhouse but struggled, shooting 1-for-8 from the field.

“She had a great game at Chicago,” said Donovan. “We saw the Katie that played throughout most of training camp play in Chicago – very comfortable and confident. Then we go to Indiana and, very much like a rookie, up and down a little bit. You saw a little bit more of her rookie side in the Indiana game.”

Gearlds dismissed the notion that her return home had anything to do with the game.

“If anything, there was no pressure,” she said. “I was playing in front of people I love in a gym I’ve played countless number of games in. I’ve knocked down countless numbers of shots in that gym. It’s ten minutes from home, so there was no pressure.”

In the context of the discussion about the Storm’s zone offense, I asked whether Gearlds felt she missed shots she should have made or whether she could have gotten better looks.

“Some of the shots I took were definitely shots I felt like I should have made,” she answered. “We watched the first half and I missed four threes in the first half. Maybe one was kind of sketchy if I should have shot it. Those are shots that I’m going to knock down. I still feel very confident with it.”

Gearlds called yesterday’s street renaming “nice. There were some people there, some friends and family, some of my old teachers – community members who are high up in Beech Grove, so to speak. It was nice. I got to climb the ladder and cut the ribbon off the street sign. It’s definitely something that not a lot of people can say they have.”

First All-Star Voting Returns

Tuesday, June 12th, 2007

The first returns are in from the WNBA’s All-Star voting, and Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson are both leading at their respective positions.

Sue has an advantage of just 17 votes on Becky Hammon, but she’s got nearly twice the votes of the third guard in the voting, so she’s looking very good for a starting spot. That third guard is, at the moment, Betty Lennox, but it looks like she’ll have the cold comfort of being first runner-up.

At forward, Jackson (20,464 votes) and Diana Taurasi (18,584) have an enormous advantage over Sheryl Swoopes (9,232) and the rest of the pack.

The most interesting race is at center, where Ruth Riley of the Silver Stars has 12,240 votes to the 12,126 of the Storm’s Janell Burse, with Sacramento’s Yolanda Griffith also in quintuple digits.

The moral of that story: vote, vote, vote! Vote now! The Storm has a real chance of having three All-Star starters.

One slightly disappointing bit of news: Iziane Castro Marques doesn’t appear on the first returns, nor do any other write-in candidates. Call me a cynic, but I’d be very surprised if Izi hadn’t gotten at least 732 write-in votes (the total for Minnesota’s Tamika Raymond, last amongst forwards on the ballot) from intrepid Storm fans.

Holdsclaw Retires

Tuesday, June 12th, 2007

I’m still reeling from coming home tonight after playing basketball, opening up Women’s Hoops Blog and seeing the news that Chamique Holdsclaw has retired from the WNBA at the age of 30.

Really, the news probably should not be that surprising, as Holdsclaw talked openly about retirement in the past. Still, this sudden of a mid-season decision did come as something of a shock. I’ll leave it to others to analyze the decision and Holdsclaw’s too-brief WNBA career.

My interest lies primarily with how this affects the Sparks, who now find themselves without their leading scorer. Holdsclaw had been playing shooting guard in a big L.A. lineup; with Temeka Johnson still sidelined by microfracture knee surgery, Marta Fernandez and Lisa Willis are the only natural guards on the Sparks roster. Mwadi Mabika will probably see plenty of minutes at two guard, and you’d have to figure L.A. will sign a point guard to fill Holdsclaw’s roster spot.

I think Willis might be the big beneficiary in the short term. She’s averaged only 8.5 minutes per game this season, but has the talent to break out with more action.

The Sparks, who have six players besides Holdsclaw averaging at least five points per game, have the depth to survive her loss. Where it will really be felt, however, is in terms of creating offense. Until or unless Lisa Leslie returns after giving birth, L.A. doesn’t have a lot of players that can get shots for themselves and their teammates. Taj McWilliams-Franklin has been inconsistent this season, while Mwadi Mabika is really better suited as a complementary player. The person who might have to step up is, of all people, rookie guard Marta Fernandez. Fernandez is averaging 11.8 points and 5.2 assists per game. Is the Spaniard capable of more? We’ll find out soon enough.

Good Night and Goodbye

Sunday, June 10th, 2007

The photo above currently graces the frontpage of storm.wnba.com, but I thought it was worth a quick comment as well. Is there anybody who enjoys a good win better than Sue Bird and Lauren Jackson? Seemingly every time the Storm puts away an opponent early, there is a photo of the two All-Stars and good friends yukking it up on the bench or cheering on their teammates. For Storm fans, there is no better image, no clearer sign that a game has gone well.
The story of tonight’s game can probably be told pretty well with two players, Jackson and Minnesota’s Seimone Augustus. They came into tonight 1-2 in the league in scoring, with Augustus narrowly in the lead. Jackson, back after missing Thursday’s game with an illness, had 30 points on 12-of-15 shooting, nine rebounds and two blocks. Augustus scored only five points after the first quarter and was held to 5-for-17 shooting by the Storm (credit goes to Iziane Castro Marques and very effective help defense). As a result, Jackson and Augustus are still 1-2 in scoring, but now it’s the Storm’s Aussie that has the advantage.
Both teams had balanced scoring, with five players in double-figures a side, but Jackson’s advantage over Augustus was a big reason Bird and Jackson were on the bench for the final five minutes or so.
I also want to spotlight the performance of the bench in the first half. The bench never lost any ground and in fact made up some late in the first quarter and early in the second. That allowed the starters the chance to spurt ahead with a 14-0 run midway through the second period. From there on out, the Storm was never threatened.
Tonight’s game had a tinge of sadness because it was the last for Jennifer Carroll with the Storm after four-plus seasons, including the 2004 WNBA Championship campaign. In multiple different roles in the PR Department, working with the Sonics but focused on the Storm, JC has been a big reason why Seattle is the best market in the WNBA in terms of media coverage. Unfortunately, she’s moving on to a new position in corporate PR. Goodbye and good luck, Jennifer. We’ll miss ya.

Jackson Practices, Plans to Play Saturday

Friday, June 8th, 2007

The media got a surprise at Friday’s Storm practice. After being out all week due to illness, including missing last night’s loss at Sacramento, Lauren Jackson returned to the court for practice and it looks like she will play tomorrow when the Storm hosts the Minnesota Lynx (7:00 p.m., 1150 AM KKNW, ).

“Honestly, I feel good,” said Jackson. When asked if she’ll start, Jackson emphatically responded, “Heck yeah – I better.”

Storm Coach Anne Donovan was, typically, a bit more reserved in that regard, saying “it looks good” for Jackson to play against the Lynx.

“We’ll still watch her, and if she goes backwards at all, we would change that, but she looks good.”

Jackson is looking for privacy with regards to her health, but called the last week “a bit of a scare” and indicated that tests came up negative.

Sue Bird went through practice (skipping only shooting drills) despite a little inevitable swelling in her left knee after the flight. Bird said she was worried about how much she would be able to play during shootaround, but the knee felt better after a lengthy warm-up and some treatement prior to the game.

“I felt better in the game than I have any time in practice the last couple of days,” Bird said.

Bird downplayed the role of Jackson’s absence in her season-high 21 points, saying it was more about how the Monarchs defend on the perimeter (”equal opportunity” defense, she termed it to laughs, meaning Sacramento doesn’t adjust much to opposing personnel). However, her teammate and friend Jackson called it a “good chance for Sue to really get her game going, which she did.”

Palmer Named to UK Coaching Staff

Friday, June 8th, 2007

Storm veteran Wendy Palmer has a new off-season job. Palmer was named to the staff of the University of Kentucky women, moving over after two seasons as an assistant at Virginia Commonwealth.

New UK Coach Matthew Mitchell, a long-time SEC assistant, was happy to add Palmer.

“We are so excited that Wendy is joining our family,” Mitchell said. “Wendy is a WNBA pioneer and will bring so much experience to this staff. Her experience will prove to be invaluable to the success of this program.”

Mitchell and Assistant Coach Niya Butts were in Seattle during training camp to get to know Palmer.

Bird Practices; Jackson to Miss Thursday's Game

Wednesday, June 6th, 2007

The Storm got good news and bad news on the injury front at Wednesday’s practice.

Sue Bird, who had missed two days of practice because of a right quad contusion and swelling in her left knee, was able to practice. An MRI on Bird’s left knee was negative, but she wore a thin white sleeve on the knee. Bird did not participate in the shooting drill that ended practice, instead icing the knee on the sideline.

Bird said afterwards that she first experienced swelling Sunday morning, and that it was something of a concern because she didn’t have an explanation as to why. Also, this is the knee that Bird has had surgery on twice (she tore her left ACL in college and had microfracture surgery on the same knee after the 2003 WNBA season).

An MRI was negative and Bird is icing the knee nearly constantly to get any swelling out and reduce the discomfort. She hopes to play against the Monarchs, but will know more after this afternoon’s flight to Sacramento.

Bird also said she’ll have to have another MRI at some point when a game is not so near so that doctors can inject dye into the knee to get a better look at it.

Jackson is still not feeling well and is undergoing further evaluation. For precautionary reasons, she will not travel to Sacramento with the Storm and is out of tomorrow’s game.

“We’re just keeping her here with the doctors and trying to get her well,” said Storm Head Coach Anne Donovan.

The Storm is in much better position to play without Jackson this season than last year, when the team went 1-3 when Jackson did not play. Two of those games came under similar circumstances, where Jackson was unexpectedly unavailable. Seattle won at Los Angeles last June when Jackson did not travel but lost to Sacramento on July 18 when plantar fasciitis kept her out (that was also the day of the sale of the Sonics & Storm).

Although Donovan was noncommittal, Wendy Palmer will likely step into Jackson’s starting position, with Tye’sha Fluker and Ashley Robinson available as reserve posts. Shyra Ely could be an option as well. Sacramento, which just lost DeMya Walker to a season-ending knee injury, has been playing a lot of smallball under former Storm assistant Jenny Boucek. 6-3 Nicole Powell, usually a small forward, has seen extensive action at power forward.

Katie Gearlds really shot the ball well when the Storm worked against the practice squad. That will translate into a game sooner than later, and the couple of baskets Katie had at the end of last Saturday’s loss might have helped that process.

West Coach Up for Grabs

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

If you’re anything like me – and I sincerely hope, for your sake, that you are not – you’ve been wondering how the WNBA would pick the coach of this year’s Western Conference All-Star team. League rules dictate that it is the coach of the previous year’s WNBA Finalist from the conference, but with Sacramento’s John Whisenant stepping down to work solely as a GM, this year is different.

The WNBA announced today that this year’s coach will be picked as the NBA does it – by best record in the conference at a date prior to the All-Star break, in this case July 1. So there’s a little extra incentive for teams to get off to a good start.

Bird's MRI Negative

Tuesday, June 5th, 2007

The results of the MRI on Sue Bird’s left knee came back negative, and she’s day-to-day. We’ll know more Wednesday when the Storm returns to practice.

Good reading material this morning: a New York Times profile of Bill Laimbeer and the Shock.