Archive for August, 2007

Wild Game 3s

Wednesday, August 29th, 2007

Hey, at least I predicted something right.

I said Sunday I expected some very competitive Game 3s after the mismatches that marked the first four days of WNBA Playoff action. That turned out to be a vast understatement, with two of the games going into overtime and the third decided with 0.5 seconds left. The last two days have been WNBA action at its finest.

While waiting for players to complete their exit interviews tomorrow at The Furtado Center, I’ll be working on my preview of the two Conference Finals series, which I hope to have posted by day’s end. Then again, after I correctly picked only one of the three First Round series – that being Detroit-New York, which, ahem, I did not see going three games and an extra five minutes before being decided – I’m not sure said preview will hold much value.

By the way … if you’re into semi-random WNBA stats (you know I am), Paul Swanson has some great numbers on his blog. Former Storm guard Tully Bevilaqua finished third in the WNBA, drawing 20 offensive fouls. In 2004 I made it my mission to track how many charges Tully drew, but I don’t recall getting very far. Storm center Janell Burse drawing 16 offensive fouls in 29 games was more surprising and impressive.

2007 Season Ends for Storm

Monday, August 27th, 2007

PHOENIX – We really believed. When the Storm rallied to tie the game at 85-all, it looked like a miraculous comeback was well within the team’s reach. Alas, Diana Taurasi and company destroyed that vision. Taurasi’s three-pointer seemed to be worth even more points, it was such a shocking turn of momentum and came from so deep. The Storm never recovered.

The nature of the WNBA Playoffs is that a defeat comes very suddenly; two games, in this case, and the season is over. It’s hard to process right away. There were so many highlights to the seson, including Lauren Jackson’s play all year long, but the ultimate result was the Storm falling short of what it set out to do.

The next couple of days, including exit interviews, should allow us to put the season in better perspective.

When the Storm blew out Phoenix on May 23, my big question was whether the Mercury had enough grit after losing Kristen Rasmussen and Kamila Vodichkova. I would say that over the last two games Phoenix has conclusively answered that question. Turns out Kelly Miller has more than enough scrappiness to cover the entire team.

It’s more than Miller, however. The Mercury may not be physically tough, but there is a mental resiliency provided by Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, amongst others. Phoenix answered every Storm run over the two games in this series and wasn’t rattled even when the Storm rallied from 22 down to tie the game.

Based on this series, the Mercury has to be considered the clear favorite in the Western Conference Finals against either Sacramento or San Antonio. How far could Phoenix go? There’s no reason to believe the Mercury can’t win this whole thing.

Can the Storm Add Another Game 3?

Sunday, August 26th, 2007

PHOENIX – Since the WNBA went to its current eight-team Playoff system in 2000, there have never been a full four Game 3s in the First Round. Just last year, the Seattle Storm participated in the only Game 3 of the four series. This afternoon, however, the Storm has a chance to make four Game 3s in two days by beating the Phoenix Mercury.

The first four days of the WNBA postseason have been competitive to the extent that all three series thus far have gone the distance, but the individual games have been surprisingly uncompetitive. Thursday’s triple-OT clash between Indiana and Connecticut was an instant classic and Detroit and New York went down to the wire today, but every other game has been lopsided. That’s a surprising outcome, and one I don’t think that will continue with the Game 3s starting tomorrow.

The other surprise – one the Storm hopes does not continue today – has been the dominance of home teams, which are 6-1 so far, with Phoenix earning the lone road victory to date.

The Storm traveled to Phoenix yesterday afternoon after practicing in Seattle, then held a shootaround at the US Airways Center this morning. I got in about 11 a.m. this morning and, after a quick lunch with some co-workers, now it’s killing time until we head to the arena. Once again, make sure to check out our inaugural road Live From Press Row.

You can pass the time by reading about this series, starting with our Insider Preview. Diana Taurasi blogged about Game 1 in her blog with Sue Bird, while the Mercury Web site has behind-the-scenes video from Game 1, including Bill Russell’s visit to the Phoenix locker room after the game.

Storm Ready to Go

Thursday, August 23rd, 2007

After taking Wednesday off, the Storm went through its final practice in preparation for taking on the Mercury starting tomorrow. During the portion of practice open to the media, the Storm was again working against Phoenix’s 3-2 zone with Adia Barnes playing the Diana Taurasi role of rover. Talking to Adia afterwards, she’s been very impressed with how the Storm has played this week in practice.

Storm Head Coach Anne Donovan cited the “good focus” in practice this week and praised the practice unit for playing as close to Phoenix’s style as possible.

Most of the discussion after practice centered on the relationships on both sides. Speaking of that, I need to work on my feature on that topic.

Update: As I transcribe, I want to make sure I find a place for this quote from Sue Bird on comparing the Storm with the Mercury:

“Their inside game is not as tall, not as Lauren Jackson as ours is.”

Storm Preparations Continue

Tuesday, August 21st, 2007

Day two of the Storm’s prep work in practice for the Phoenix Mercury focused more on working against the Mercury’s junk defenses – a triangle-and-two and, notably, the box-and-one against Lauren Jackson I wrote about yesterday.

“We put somebody on Lauren to frustrate her today,” explained Storm Head Coach Anne Donovan, “so hopefully she can get that frustration out in practice and not be so frustrated when she sees Diana (Taurasi) on Friday.”

Storm color analyst and former player Adia Barnes has been part of the practice squad the last few days, and today – at least during the portion of practice open to the media – she was assigned the task of filling Taurasi’s role in the Mercury’s zone.

There was a brief moment of shock when we walked into the practice court and saw Sue Bird on the sidelines having her foot worked on, but it turned out to be precautionary. Bird has a fourth metatarsal contusion, which means she’s got a bruised toe on her right foot. She sat out the end of practice, but the injury isn’t a serious concern.

I was interested to hear Wendy Carpenter of The News Tribune use the same word I did yesterday – “loose” – to describe the Storm’s attitude.

“I think we feel good about having enough time to rest, so nobody’s overworked – and it’s a mental and a physical rest – and yet when they’ve come here, they’ve come to work,” responded Donovan. “I would say loose, because we know our opponent and we know what we need to do. We’re in a good place. I guess that’s how I’d say it.”

Lastly, Izi Castro Marques delivered a perfect line one day late – I would have loved to use it in yesterday’s story on what a good matchup this is from the perspective of fans and the media.

“It’s a fun game,” she said. “I think everybody likes to watch that game, everybody likes to play that game because it’s a high-scoring game – the best offensive teams in the league. It’s going to be a fun game, but we know we can’t keep up running with them, so we’ve got to limit our turnovers and defend as much as we can because that’s what they do: Shoot and run, shoot and run.”

Also … if you haven’t checked out Taurasi’s latest entry in her blog with Sue Bird, be sure to do so. Apparently, she doesn’t talk much trash on the court. We’ll have to double-check with LJ on that one.

Back at Practice

Monday, August 20th, 2007

After taking the weekend off, the Storm returned to the practice court Monday and had a very successful effort. During the scrimmage against the practice squad open to the media, the Storm earned a 39-23 victory with some hot shooting.

“If we play the way we practiced today, I don’t think we’re going to have a problem against Phoenix at all,” said Lauren Jackson afterwards. “We had a great session.”

LJ was in a jovial mood after practice, reacting with a grin to news that she’d won another Player of the Week – her record-setting fifth. As a result, I asked her if there was a looseness around the team, and Jackson adamantly disagreed.

“Definitely not,” she said. “I think there’s definitely a sense of urgency, but it’s a really good feeling. I’m glad that we’re here. It’s a new season for us and everything that has happened has now been tossed out the window. It feels good.”

I agree that “Loose” was in fact the wrong word. However, I do sense a calming confidence in the team going into the playoffs with a three-game winning streak and a 2-1 record against the Mercury. That’s not disrespectful to Phoenix whatsoever, but there’s been a vocalized agreement most of the season that game outcomes are not about what the opponent does, they’re about what the Storm does. When this team plays its game, it can beat anyone in the league.

Final WNBA Stats

Monday, August 20th, 2007

Ah, there’s nothing quite like the day after the end of the season for the statistical analyst. All the numbers are final and in the books. Let’s take a look, shall we?

League Level

The final WNBA Offensive Rating of 98.5 points per 100 possessions was essentially unchanged from last year’s 98.6 mark. However, the league pace went up from 75.9 possessions per game to 77.8, which meant average scoring was up from 74.9 to 76.6 points per game.

One thing I never touched on here was the stunning improvement in league-wide free-throw shooting. The WNBA’s FT% went from 74.3% to 77.5%. Three-point percentage was also up from 33.5% to 34.8%, while two-point percentage was down from 45.0% to 44.3% (more physical play in the paint).

Turnover percentage went up from 17.6% to 18.2%; I bet if you had the numbers tracked like this, you’d find the entire difference was attributable to an increase in traveling/palming violations.

UPDATE: Paul Swanson contributes these numbers and confirms my suspicion. Traveling/Dribbling turnovers increased from 1.4% of possessions in 2006 to 2.4% in 2007.

Offensive Rating

Team          ORtg------------------Phoenix      106.5Seattle      104.9Detroit      100.7Connecticut  100.1San Antonio   98.4Minnesota     97.5Sacramento    97.5Washington    97.0Chicago       96.6Indiana       96.2Houston       95.9Los Angeles   94.4New York      94.2

The two best offenses in the WNBA square off at KeyArena on Friday. Think this is going to be a fun series? … It’s hard to believe Indiana was third in the WNBA in offense at the time Tamika Catchings was injured; the Fever’s offense was already sliding a little, but went off a cliff without Catchings. Indiana’s defense, as we’ll see, was not as affected by the injury. … Usually when the worst offensive team in the league makes the playoffs, it’s on the strength of defense, but the Liberty isn’t that good on D.

Defensive Rating

Team          ORtg------------------Indiana       91.4Detroit       94.6Sacramento    95.2San Antonio   97.1Connecticut   97.2New York      97.2Washington    99.4Houston      100.2Chicago      100.3Seattle      100.6Phoenix      101.1Los Angeles  101.8Minnesota    104.2

Places where you will be hearing the phrase “defense wins championships”: Indiana, Detroit, Sacramento and San Antonio (though the Silver Stars are more good than great defensively). Places where you will not be hearing the phrase “defense wins championships”: Seattle, Phoenix. Whoever wins the Storm-Mercury series will have point differential on their side (as you’ll see in a moment), but a substantial defensive disadvantage.

Pythagorean Standings

Again, the standings based on expected wins (as calculated from point differential):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW------------------   ------------------Phoenix       21.0   Detroit       22.2Seattle       19.9   Indiana       20.6Sacramento    18.5   Connecticut   19.7San Antonio   18.1   Washington    15.2Minnesota     13.2   Chicago       14.2Houston       13.1   New York      14.1Los Angeles   11.2

Based on point differential, the Phoenix-Storm series should be the Western Conference Finals, not an opening-round series. The Silver Stars saw their differential take a hit playing reserves in yesterday’s 26-point blowout loss at Minnesota, but even if we take out that game San Antonio only improves to 18.9 expected wins.

In the East, the last team in differential made the playoffs, but New York wasn’t significantly behind Washington and Chicago.

Worth noting: the league-wide parity by differential. Detroit isn’t nearly as dominant in terms of differential, not anywhere near some of the league’s best teams of all times, while even the league’s second (or third) division was competitive.

Bird as Barista

Friday, August 17th, 2007

Sue Bird served as a Celebrity Barista at the packed Pike Place Starbucks yesterday as part of the Market’s Centennial Celebration and Storm Photographer Terrence Vaccaro got some great shots:


By the way, I think everyone should know that “The A Team” – Storm broadcasters Adia Barnes and Alan Horton – was unfamiliar with the term “barista” before Tuesday’s game. Just before reading a promo, Alan asked me if it was pronounced BARE-is-tuh.

The Rest of the MVP Ballot

Friday, August 17th, 2007

Hopefully, by now you’ve seen our Lauren Jackson for MVP page, which makes the case for Jackson to win the WNBA’s highest individual honor for the second time in her career. You might accurately guess that Jackson is at the top of my (strictly mythical) MVP ballot. How about the rest?

Tamika Catchings has key numbers – PER and net plus-minus, notably – that are not far behind LJ’s. Had Catchings stayed healthy, it would have been hard to begrudge MVP voters for rewarding Catchings for her years of excellence. As it is, she ends up second on my ballot.

The other player who comes out looking very good in the stat table that anchors the LJ for MVP page is Penny Taylor. The Phoenix forward has been as good on offense as anyone in the WNBA this season, and it’s translated into the Mercury’s success with her on and off the court in a way Diana Taurasi’s play has not. Taylor carried Phoenix during the middle of the year, including dominating performances in the two games Taurasi missed due to league suspension. She gets my third-place vote.

My fourth-place vote goes to Becky Hammon. Hammon might be getting more credit for San Antonio’s turnaround than her performance would justify – especially keeping in mind the Silver Stars going 4-1 without her and a relatively low net plus-minus rating – but she has still had a brilliant season, one of the best for a point guard in league history.

To round out my (again, mythical) ballot, I’m going with something of an oddball pick: Lindsay Whalen. The Sun is campaigning for Whalen’s backcourt-mate, Katie Douglas, for MVP, but it’s Whalen who has keyed the team’s run in the second half of the season. I broke Whalen’s performance down into her first 16 games of the season and her second 16 and her PER skyrocketed from 17.0 to 27.3 over those two spans. Whalen was rebounding and passing the ball well, but she’s been on fire with her shooting since the end of June, shooting 55.4% from the field over the last 16 games. Add it up and Whalen has been as valuable as anyone in the league over the last month and a half.

Storm on WNBA.com

Friday, August 17th, 2007

A couple of very good reads today on WNBA.com featuring the Storm. First, Sue Bird has updated her blog with Diana Taurasi, writing about a get-together at her house last night with Mama Palmer (that’s Wendy’s mother, not Wendy herself) cooking:

I was the host, Wendy’s mom was the chef and we had pretty much everyone over. A couple of people couldn’t make it but it was fun. We had the New York-Washington game on NBA TV and everyone was eating their “soul food.” We had mac-and-cheese, pork chops, ribs, chicken casserole, pound cake for dessert and some banana pudding. We tore it up.

And then, of course, we finished off the night with a little Guitar Hero. Some of the older crowd left, but I have to admit, Izi was killing it. For her first time, the Brazilian has some moves on the guitar. It was fun to just hang out and we have a team that really likes each other and gets along so it was good to come together…

Also, WNBA.com has a Q&A with Storm Assistant Coach Heidi VanDerveer.

Q. What are your specific duties with the team?
VanDerveer: We split the scouting between Shelley and myself and I work primarily with the perimeter players and Shelley works with the post people and I watch our offense quite a bit and Shelley watches our defense quite a bit.