Ah, there’s nothing quite like the day after the end of the season for the statistical analyst. All the numbers are final and in the books. Let’s take a look, shall we?
League Level
The final WNBA Offensive Rating of 98.5 points per 100 possessions was essentially unchanged from last year’s 98.6 mark. However, the league pace went up from 75.9 possessions per game to 77.8, which meant average scoring was up from 74.9 to 76.6 points per game.
One thing I never touched on here was the stunning improvement in league-wide free-throw shooting. The WNBA’s FT% went from 74.3% to 77.5%. Three-point percentage was also up from 33.5% to 34.8%, while two-point percentage was down from 45.0% to 44.3% (more physical play in the paint).
Turnover percentage went up from 17.6% to 18.2%; I bet if you had the numbers tracked like this, you’d find the entire difference was attributable to an increase in traveling/palming violations.
UPDATE: Paul Swanson contributes these numbers and confirms my suspicion. Traveling/Dribbling turnovers increased from 1.4% of possessions in 2006 to 2.4% in 2007.
Offensive Rating
Team ORtg------------------Phoenix 106.5Seattle 104.9Detroit 100.7Connecticut 100.1San Antonio 98.4Minnesota 97.5Sacramento 97.5Washington 97.0Chicago 96.6Indiana 96.2Houston 95.9Los Angeles 94.4New York 94.2
The two best offenses in the WNBA square off at KeyArena on Friday. Think this is going to be a fun series? … It’s hard to believe Indiana was third in the WNBA in offense at the time Tamika Catchings was injured; the Fever’s offense was already sliding a little, but went off a cliff without Catchings. Indiana’s defense, as we’ll see, was not as affected by the injury. … Usually when the worst offensive team in the league makes the playoffs, it’s on the strength of defense, but the Liberty isn’t that good on D.
Defensive Rating
Team ORtg------------------Indiana 91.4Detroit 94.6Sacramento 95.2San Antonio 97.1Connecticut 97.2New York 97.2Washington 99.4Houston 100.2Chicago 100.3Seattle 100.6Phoenix 101.1Los Angeles 101.8Minnesota 104.2
Places where you will be hearing the phrase “defense wins championships”: Indiana, Detroit, Sacramento and San Antonio (though the Silver Stars are more good than great defensively). Places where you will not be hearing the phrase “defense wins championships”: Seattle, Phoenix. Whoever wins the Storm-Mercury series will have point differential on their side (as you’ll see in a moment), but a substantial defensive disadvantage.
Pythagorean Standings
Again, the standings based on expected wins (as calculated from point differential):
WEST ExpW EAST ExpW------------------ ------------------Phoenix 21.0 Detroit 22.2Seattle 19.9 Indiana 20.6Sacramento 18.5 Connecticut 19.7San Antonio 18.1 Washington 15.2Minnesota 13.2 Chicago 14.2Houston 13.1 New York 14.1Los Angeles 11.2
Based on point differential, the Phoenix-Storm series should be the Western Conference Finals, not an opening-round series. The Silver Stars saw their differential take a hit playing reserves in yesterday’s 26-point blowout loss at Minnesota, but even if we take out that game San Antonio only improves to 18.9 expected wins.
In the East, the last team in differential made the playoffs, but New York wasn’t significantly behind Washington and Chicago.
Worth noting: the league-wide parity by differential. Detroit isn’t nearly as dominant in terms of differential, not anywhere near some of the league’s best teams of all times, while even the league’s second (or third) division was competitive.