After a wild week, the WNBA now heads into the Olympic break, giving us a month to think about how things are going to shake out down the stretch. The Eastern Conference has tightened up at the top, with a half-game separating Connecticut, Detroit and New York and the Shock without Cheryl Ford for the rest of the season. There’s a little separation after San Antonio and the Storm in the West, but Houston, Los Angeles, Minnesota and Sacramento all have either 12 or 13 losses fighting for two playoff spots.

How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW------------------    ------------------San Antonio   19.6    Connecticut   21.5Seattle       19.5    Detroit       20.1Minnesota     19.2    New York      19.3Los Angeles   18.0    Indiana       17.6Houston       17.6    Chicago       15.2Phoenix       16.8    Washington    11.6Sacramento    16.7    Atlanta        5.3

The Minnesota Lynx continue to be the anomaly by differential. Their differential is virtually the same as the Storm’s and San Antonio’s, yet the Lynx are on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Sacramento’s seven-game winning streak did surprisingly little for the team’s differential, which remains worst in the West.

Connecticut looks strong in the East, though the Sun’s differential got an artificial boost with a 26-point win over Los Angeles on Thursday with Lisa Leslie, DeLisha Milton-Jones and Candace Parker all suspended. Something tells me that game goes a little differently with them active, though I still would have made the Sun the favorites. New York still lags a bit in terms of differential.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating---------------------     ---------------------Phoenix         107.4     Indiana          91.7Minnesota       103.3     Seattle          94.7Connecticut     101.9     San Antonio      95.1Detroit         101.9     Los Angeles      95.7New York        100.9     Connecticut      97.6Seattle          99.4     Detroit          97.7AVERAGE          98.7     Houston          97.8San Antonio      98.6     New York         98.4Chicago          98.3     Sacramento       98.4Sacramento       97.9     AVERAGE          98.7Los Angeles      97.8     Washington       99.0Houston          96.6     Chicago          99.6Atlanta          92.8     Minnesota       100.3Indiana          92.7     Atlanta         106.1Washington       91.5     Phoenix         108.1

For the most part, things have settled in here. A couple of notable changes: Sacramento has surged up the defensive rankings during the winning streak, while the Lynx have slipped down ahead of just Atlanta and Phoenix.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER----------------------------Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.4Sancho Lyttle      HOU  27.2Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.1Lindsay Whalen     CON  27.0Candace Parker     LAS  25.7Sophia Young       SAS  25.2Candice Wiggins    MIN  24.6Janel McCarville   NYL  24.5Cappie Pondexter   PHO  23.3Candice Dupree     CHI  23.2

Not much movement at this point of the season. Lyttle topped out at 23 minutes last week, and she needs more time on the court.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we’ll highlight turnover percentage, which is pretty simply the percentage of a player or team’s possessions that end in a turnover. I calculate this as TO/(FGA + (.44*FTA) + TO). Others will subtract offensive rebounds from the denominator, but I like the idea of a team’s possessions being divided into those that end in shots from the field, trips to the free-throw line and turnovers and having those three add up to 100 percent.

Here’s a look at how teams rate this season in terms of lowest turnover percentage (left) and highest opponent turnover percentage (right).

Team             TO%     Team             TO%--------------------     --------------------Phoenix         14.5     Sacramento      20.1Minnesota       15.0     Indiana         19.6Detroit         15.4     New York        19.3Connecticut     16.0     Washington      18.9Seattle         16.9     Detroit         18.9Chicago         17.5     Minnesota       18.3New York        18.0     Houston         18.3Sacramento      18.4     San Antonio     17.4San Antonio     18.7     Seattle         17.2Atlanta         18.9     Atlanta         16.9Houston         19.1     Chicago         16.5Los Angeles     19.2     Connecticut     16.0Indiana         19.5     Los Angeles     15.8Washington      21.0     Phoenix         15.2

Everyone thinks high-paced games mean lots of sloppy play and turnovers, but really that’s not the case for teams that shoot it before they have a chance to commit a turnover. San Antonio coughs it up more often than you would like for a contending team. In general, teams that really struggle with turnovers have issues at point guard.

For the most part, you have two different types of defenses – those that sit back and defend the shot and those that aggressively play for turnovers. The Storm, San Antonio and L.A. generally fit into the former group, while Sacramento and New York rely on turnovers. It’s possible to be successful either way. Of course, the strongest defenses combine both, and Indiana is the best example of that this season.

How about at the individual level. Here are the players that turn it over least often.

Player              Tm   TO%----------------------------Kelly Mazzante     PHO   7.5Seimone Augustus   MIN   8.5Raff. Masciadri    LAS   8.9Cheryl Ford        DET   8.9Katie Gearlds      SEA   9.4Alison Bales       ATL   9.5Lauren Jackson     SEA   9.6Jia Perkins        CHI   9.7Sophia Young       SAS  10.2Diana Taurasi      PHO  10.3

Again, Mazzante, Masciadri and Gearlds are examples of the “shoot it before you turn it over” philosophy. Many of the league’s top players are very surehanded given how much offense they’re creating. The outliers on this list are Ford and Bales.

Which players are most prone to turnovers?

Player              Tm   TO%----------------------------Nancy Lieberman    DET  66.7Kasha Terry        ATL  31.7Shannon Bobbitt    LAS  31.5Loree Moore        NYL  31.0Brooke Wyckoff     CHI  30.6Kristin Haynie     ATL  30.1A'Quon. Franklin   SAC  28.1Ruth Riley         SAS  27.7Kerri Gardin       CON  27.5Erica White        HOU  26.9Noelle Quinn       MIN  26.8

OK, Nancy Lieberman’s 11 minutes don’t really qualify her. Here you see a lot of point guards, which is not surprising. One adjustment many people make is to include assists with possessions used to account for the extra ballhandling done by point guards. I’m not a huge fan of doing so, but this explains wh it makes sense. That being said, I’m surprised how often Moore has turned it over. Her turnover rate was 23.9 percent a year ago, which is much more reasonable for a point

guard.

We’ll wrap things up by looking at the Storm’s turnover rates.

Player              Tm   TO%----------------------------Katie Gearlds      SEA   9.4Lauren Jackson     SEA   9.6Sheryl Swoopes     SEA  11.8Swin Cash          SEA  15.2Sue Bird           SEA  17.2Shyra Ely          SEA  20.0Tanisha Wright     SEA  21.3Yolanda Griffith   SEA  21.4Camille Little     SEA  22.0Ashley Robinson    SEA  30.4

Aside from Robinson, who rarely handles the ball on offense, the Storm doesn’t have anyone who has regular problems with turnovers. Little is another type of player hurt by this analysis – she can’t get any credit for setting screens, but can pick up offensive fouls that go in the books as turnovers.

A big part of Wright’s improvement this season has been slashing her turnover rate from 27.9 percent last season.

In the long run, I don’t think the lopsided nature of the Storm’s loss yesterday at Washington means much of anything. It does mean their numbers are no longer as dominant as we take our weekly look at WNBA advanced stats. Detroit has passed the Storm in expected wins based on point differential projected to a full 34-game season, though Seattle remains tops in the Western Conference.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW------------------    ------------------Seattle       20.1    Detroit       22.0Minnesota     19.4    Connecticut   19.7San Antonio   19.3    New York      18.7Los Angeles   19.0    Indiana       18.6Phoenix       16.8    Chicago       15.8Houston       16.0    Washington    12.0Sacramento    15.5    Atlanta        5.2

According to point differential, four teams have separated themselves in the West but are all tightly-bunched. In the real standings, Minnesota (11-11) would not make the postseason if it started today. The Lynx are only a half-game ahead of Phoenix and Houston and are a half-game back of Sacramento, which by differential has no business in the playoffs. I cannot emphasize enough how hilarious it is that the Monarchs were criticized in Sacramento a couple weeks ago for being unable to win close games. After yesterday’s win in Detroit, Sacramento is now 5-3 in games decided by five points or fewer and 10-5 in games decided by single-digits. With DeMya Walker added to the mix, the Monarchs might improve their differential down the stretch to match their record. Still, Minnesota has to be considered the favorite for the last playoff spot in the West.

Washington had the weirdest differential week ever, losing by 21 and 37 and then winning by 32. The net result was the Mystics stayed just about the same in the expected wins standings.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating---------------------     ---------------------Phoenix         107.5     Indiana          89.7Minnesota       103.6     Seattle          94.1Detroit         103.0     Los Angeles      94.3Connecticut     101.8     San Antonio      93.6New York        100.7     Detroit          96.3Seattle          99.4     Houston          98.1Chicago          98.9     Washington       98.6          AVERAGE          98.6Sacramento       98.3     Connecticut      99.0San Antonio      98.2     New York         99.0Los Angeles      97.5     Chicago          99.9Houston          95.1     Minnesota       100.5Atlanta          93.0     Sacramento      100.5Indiana          92.4     Atlanta         106.6Washington       91.6     Phoenix         108.2

The Detroit offense got clicking last week, moving up from fifth in the league to third. Deanna Nolan was a big reason why, scoring 53 points on 22-of-38 shooting in games over the weekend against Washington and Sacramento. Still, why isn’t Nolan mentioned more often as an inconsistent scorer? That output followed 16 total points in her previous three games.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER----------------------------Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.1Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.4Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.5Lindsay Whalen     CON  26.2Candace Parker     LAS  26.2Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.2Sophia Young       SAS  25.2Candice Wiggins    MIN  25.0Tasha Humphrey     DET  24.5Janel McCarville   NYL  24.4

At what point do we declare Lyttle legit? She’s kept up MVP-caliber production for several weeks now. 378 minutes isn’t a ton, but it’s more than a fluke. Lyttle’s net plus-minus (+10.1 points per 40 minutes) is 12th in the league. The newcomer this week is Humphrey, who now clears the 250-minute minimum and also improved her rating with 29 points and 17 rebounds in 55 minutes on 12-of-20 shooting.

We continue our look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. This week we’ll highlight True Shooting Percentage, the best measure of a player’s shooting efficiency. You can find TS% as PTS/(2*(FGA+(.44*FTA))). It’s points per shooting percentage divided by two to be on the same scale as field-goal percentage. Here are the league leaders this season.

Player              Tm   TS%----------------------------Crystal Kelly      SAC  .656Lisa Willis        NYL  .619Sancho Lyttle      HOU  .619Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611Le'Coe Willingham  PHO  .607Jamie Carey        CON  .604Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593Sidney Spencer     LAS  .591Crystal Langhorne  WAS  .587

Naturally, this tends to favor role players who take advantage of open shots. It’s very impressive for Whalen and Taurasi to make this list as go-to players for their teams. That’s not to knock the role players on the list. Surely there are plenty of WNBA players who can’t make those kinds of open shots.

Kelly has put up great numbers in limited minutes all year long as part of a deep Monarchs frontcourt. I hope Walker’s return doesn’t cut into her playing time too much. Willingham’s presence shows part of why the Mercury hasn’t missed the über-efficient Penny Taylor as much on offense as we expected. Langhorne has shown up consecutive weeks, first for rebounding and now for shooting efficiency.

Why is True Shooting Percentage a better measure than field-goal percentage? Willis is a good example. She’s shooting just 40.9 percent from the field, but about two-thirds of her attempts are threes, which she’s hitting at a 48.3 percent clip, and she’s 21-of-22 from the free-throw line this season. Add it up and she’s been extremely efficient. I use the term “secondary percentage” for the difference between a player’s TS% and their FG%. Willis’ secondary percentage is the biggest in the league.

If we take a look at the top players using at least 20 percent of their team’s possessions (league average), the list is different.

Player              Tm   TS%----------------------------Tasha Humphrey     DET  .611Lindsay Whalen     CON  .595Diana Taurasi      PHO  .593Ann Wauters        SAS  .578Janel McCarville   NYL  .577Katie Feenstra     ATL  .574Candice Wiggins    MIN  .571Candace Parker     LAS  .567Seimone Augustus   MIN  .566Lauren Jackson     SEA  .564

These are the truly devastating offensive forces, players who shoot a lot and shoot efficiently. Jackson usually leads this list, though her inconsistent three-point shooting drops her down this year. Wiggins is another great example of a player who is underrated by field-goal percentage, in her case more because she leads the WNBA in free throws than because of threes. As for Feenstra, she has scored very well this year but is turning the ball over on a horrendous 26.7 percent of her possessions, which is why the Dream has gone elsewhere in the post.