Archive for August, 2008

Playoff Picture: Aug. 31

Sunday, August 31st, 2008

After the Storm’s loss today in Connecticut, here’s how things look in the Western Conference.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+---------------------------------------------------San Antonio   19  10   0     1-2    8-10  3/2   5/0Seattle       18  10   0.5         12-5   2/4   3/3Los Angeles   17  12   2.0   1-1    9-7   3/2   4/1Sacramento    16  13   3.0   3-0    7-8   2/3   4/1Minnesota     14  13   4.0   2-0    8-7   2/5   3/4Houston       14  14   4.5   2-1    9-8   4/2   4/2Phoenix       12  16   6.5   3-1    4-12  3/3   5/1

After briefly taking over first in the West by percentage points with San Antonio’s loss last night to Los Angeles, the Storm drops a half-game off the pace with the loss. Los Angeles has now moved within 1.5 games of the Storm for home-court advantage in the first round, while Sacramento got a big head-to-head win over Houston, which has dropped into sixth place.

The Storm’s magic number to clinch against Houston dropped to two, but is still three against both Minnesota and Sacramento and overall.

The good news is, though the Storm could not pull out a tight game in Mohegan Sun, if the team plays like this the next two games, that should translate into victories. Even without Lindsay Whalen, Connecticut is a very dangerous team. Right now, the Sun has to be considered the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference and maybe even to win it all.

The only other game scheduled today features two East teams, so the playoff picture won’t change until tomorrow, when Minnesota visits L.A. in a big game in the West standings.

Playoff Picture: Aug. 29

Friday, August 29th, 2008

With the WNBA season back underway and just seven games remaining, it’s time to start focusing in on the battle to make the playoffs and for positioning within them. Here’s the first installment of storm.wnba.com’s Playoff Picture updates.

Team           W   L    GB  Storm  Conf   H/A  500+---------------------------------------------------San Antonio   19   9   0     1-2    8-9   3/3   6/0Seattle       18   9   0.5         12-5   2/5   4/3Los Angeles   16  12   3.0   1-1    8-7   4/2   5/1Sacramento    15  13   4.0   3-0    6-8   3/3   5/1Houston       14  13   4.5   2-1    9-7   4/3   5/2Minnesota     13  13   5.0   2-0    8-7   3/5   3/5Phoenix       12  16   7.0   3-1    4-12  3/3   5/1

With the top three teams in the West all winning, the Storm remains a half-game back of San Antonio for the top spot in the West and 2.5 up on third-place Los Angeles.

The more important doings are a little lower. With the Storm’s win and Phoenix’s loss, the Mercury can do no better than tie the Storm, and the Storm holds the tiebreaker. The most wins any of Houston, Minnesota and Sacramento can get is 21, so by winning three more games, the Storm would guarantee at least a tie with them. The Storm holds tiebreakers with both all three teams by virtue of head-to-head record.

There’s an extraordinarily unlikely possibility of a four-way tie with Houston/Minnesota, Los Angeles and San Antonio that would leave the Storm out of the playoffs, but for all intents and purposes the Storm’s magic number to clinch a playoff spot is three wins or any combination of Storm wins plus losses by TWO OF Houston, Minnesota and Sacramento that adds to three.

(UPDATED 8/29 at 3:00 p.m. to reflect Storm holding tiebreaker over Minnesota.)

Agler on KPLU

Thursday, August 28th, 2008

Tune in to 88.5 FM KPLU (NPR) either tomorrow or Saturday to hear Storm Head Coach Brian Agler chat about the playoff stretch run. The interview will air Friday on “Morning Edition” at 5:35 a.m. and 7:35 a.m. and “All Things Considered” at 4:44 p.m. On Saturday, it will be part of “Weekend Edition” at 5:34 a.m. and 7:34 a.m.

Burse Update

Thursday, August 28th, 2008

Storm Head Coach Brian Agler offered an update yesterday on center Janell Burse, who is sitting this season out. Agler had spoken earlier in the week to Burse, who was headed to Russia yesterday to prepare to play for Dynamo Moscow this upcoming season.

“She said that three or four weeks into the season or even when she got back, she really missed it,” shared Agler. “She’s excited about coming back to play and has been following us. She’s feeling better and refreshed and she’s going to go over and play in Moscow, so she’ll be in the same league as Sue (Bird) and Lauren (Jackson) and a lot of the players that play in our league.”

After Burse opted not to join the Storm, the team had to place her on the long-term suspended list to maintain her rights and not have her salary count against the cap. That meant that though her name was brought up by fans in the wake of Jackson’s injury as a possible replacement, Burse could not play in the WNBA this season.

Instead, Burse spent the summer rehabbing and working out with former long-time NBA coach John Lucas in Houston. Now she’s headed back overseas and will face high-level competition in the Russian Superleague as well as in the EuroCup. Before joining Russian rival Spartak, Bird spent two seasons playing for Dynamo.

WNBA Conference Calls

Wednesday, August 27th, 2008

As part of what the WNBA has branded “Welcome Back Week,” the league held conference calls with several players and coaches from around the league, including the Storm’s Brian Agler and Sue Bird. Here’s Agler and the other coaches:

“All seven teams right now in the Western Conference have a legitimate shot and a strong chance to work themselves into the race. It’s interesting if you see the match-ups and how one game – even one you aren’t involved in – can impact how you play. Match-ups and tie-breakers could play a big impact in the placement of teams.”

and Bird and her fellow players:

“2004 was similar with the Olympic break and the one thing I learned from that year is it’s actually more what you do before the break than what you do after. I don’t remember exactly the standings from that year back then but I know that we were in a very good spot…good enough where we actually lost five of our games after the break and we still were able to finish second. We know we have our work cut out for us, just like every other team. It’s going to be a fight but we did well prior to the break and hopefully we can get back to that level in these next few games and see what happens from there once we hopefully make the playoffs.”

Full-Strength Storm Focuses on Last Eight Games

Tuesday, August 26th, 2008

After a two-week pseudo-training camp, the Seattle Storm is ready to begin focusing on the Houston Comets and the final eight games of the 2008 season. Monday’s practice marked a shift as the Storm had all 11 healthy players on the floor. Center Kelly Santos returned from the Olympics in time for last Friday’s practice; Monday, she was joined by guard Sue Bird and forward Swin Cash. While Bird watched from the sidelines, Cash was on the floor.

“She did a good job today,” said Head Coach Brian Agler. “Just trying to get her up to speed, Sue up to speed in a couple of things we added.”

Agler was pleased with the results of the Storm’s practices during the Olympic break. The team was able to get healthier and also get extensive work together for the eight players who were with the Storm during the break.

Sheryl (Swoopes) has definitely come back in better shape,” he said. “Yo (Griffith) got refreshed having that the time off. I also think those younger players like Katie (Gearlds) and even Ashley (Robinson) and Shyra (Ely) have really come back and played pretty well in our training camp. I’ve been real pleased with how we’ve played here in practice. I hope it will carry over to the games.”

Though Cash did not participate in the Storm’s practices during the Olympic break, she hopes to see a benefit from the time off when it comes to a back injury that has been highly painful for her the last two seasons.

“The break was a time for me to really rest my back and do the things that we needed to do and get second opinions,” said Cash. “Now I’m going to be back here and train and see what happens.”

Cash acknowledged that she is coming up on long-term decisions about her back and her future. For now, however, she anticipates being able to continue battling through the injury.

“My issue right now is the pain issue and how you can deal with tolerance. Both of my doctors have said they don’t understand how I’m playing. I pride myself on being mentally tough and I take care of myself, whether it’s eating-wise, weights, doing certain things. Playing this game is worth it.

“I’m just here to battle with my teammates, and that’s going to be my focus.”

Donovan's Day

Sunday, August 24th, 2008

The great thing about the Olympics is how much they mean to players and coaches. The tough thing about the Olympics is how much they mean to players and coaches. Those of us who have worked with the Storm for some time saw familiar faces on both sides of this morning’s gold-medal game. While it was great to get a chance to see Sue Bird and Anne Donovan celebrate, it was at least equally as tough, if not more so, to see the disappointment etched on the faces of Lauren Jackson, Tully Bevilaqua and Suzy Batkovic.

At the end of the day (not quite literally, since the men’s final will keep me up late), the person I’m happiest for is Donovan, who joined Pat Summitt as the only two women ever to win gold medals as players, assistant coaches and head coaches, Donovan having also done so as an assistant coach. It’s easy to see how much this means to Donovan.

“I bleed red, white and blue,” Donovan said when she was named the USA’s head coach through the Beijing Olympics. “From the time I can remember, the Olympics were it. Staying up until all hours and watching the Olympians go for medals was something from a child that was a complete dream for me. When I stepped into the position as an athlete to fulfill that dream as a player, I thought that was the pinnacle. And then here I am as the coach. So it’s truly life-long dreams for me.”

It was evident to observers the kind of pressure Donovan put on herself in her dual role as head coach of the Storm and the national team in 2006 and 2007. That only increased when the U.S. was upset by Russia in the semifinals of the 2006 FIBA World Championships, snapping a 50-game winning streak in major international play and forcing the Americans to settle for bronze. In the wake of the loss, Donovan came under heavy criticism for her coaching, some of it justified but much of it ignoring the fact that Russia had played close before against USA squads that had the fortunate luxury of having Lisa Leslie at center.

That was before Donovan came under more fire this spring when she questioned Becky Hammon’s patriotism because of Hammon’s decision to play for Russia in the Olympics.

Ultimately, the 2006 loss proved a valuable learning experience for Donovan and her coaching staff. They recognized the need to return to the level of defense the U.S. won with despite subpar offensive efforts in the medal rounds in Athens. Defense was the focus of the USA’s brief training camp in Palo Alto, and the results were obvious. The U.S. women put together 80 minutes of incredible defense in their wins over Russia and Australia, and that translated into a gold medal.

The final +37.8 average margin of victory for this year’s team was the best ever for the USA in an Olympics, and when you consider that the conventional wisdom heading to Beijing was that the rest of the world had caught up, that’s pretty remarkable. Even the closest U.S. win, coming from behind against Russia in the semifinals, was far more decisive than the Russia-USA matchups in Athens or in the 2002 World Championships.

I watched the gold-medal game this morning with a handful of Storm co-workers, and at one point during the second half the discussion turned to whether this might be the best U.S. Olympic team ever. I took the dissenting position – the legendary names of ‘96 and that team’s incredible year-long run is tough to beat in my mind – but the mere fact that this is a discussion is testament to the coaching job Donovan and her staff did in the Olympics.

After the game and her USA head-coaching tenure were over, Donovan reflected publicly for the first time on the pressure she felt to win gold.

“There was no more pressure on me than the pressure I put on myself,” Donovan said. “That was just extremely disappointing to be the leader of that team that came away with bronze. And to know that we were better than that and could be better than that, drove me every day since 2006.”

Later, she added, “I’m not coaching the team any more, so I can sleep at night now.”

The last question of Donovan’s portion of the press conference asked her whether winning gold as a head coach was different than doing so as a player or assistant coach.

“It’s way different,” she said. “There is so much more … I think there is a lot of pressure I put on myself for this and there is just a tremendous amount of satisfaction to know the last three years … there have been a lot of challenges … so this is a great way to go out.”

Indeed it is. Congrats, Anne, and I hope you sleep well tonight.

Storm Predicts the Gold-Medal Game

Saturday, August 23rd, 2008

After Friday’s Storm practice, I surveyed several players and Head Coach Brian Agler on their picks for the gold-medal game of the Beijing Olympics between the USA (and Sue Bird) and Australia (and Lauren Jackson).

“You think I’m really going to pick Australia?” noted one American Storm player in response. OK, that’s fair. Still, I was interested in the responses – and center Kelly Santos, who played against Australia in Beijing, is an unbiased observer. Still, she picked the U.S., and so did everyone else besides Agler, ever the diplomat, who didn’t really pick either side but observed that the game would be very close just like the FIBA Diamond Ball warm-up tournament championship assuming Penny Taylor is able to play and play well.

“Obviously, I think the U.S. is going to win it,” said Tanisha Wright, who wished good luck to Jackson and former teammate Suzy Batkovic. “No reason they shouldn’t be able to finish it out strong.”

Camille Little reiterated her hope that Bird gets gold and Jackson silver, saying she expects a good game but the U.S. to pull it out.

As for Santos, she gives the USA’s post players the advantage in terms of size, but says that’s somewhat offset by the skill of the Opals’ posts. Santos thinks that Australia should like to push the tempo. Still, the U.S. will “probably” win.

Yolanda Griffith had the funniest response, saying directly that if the USA loses tomorrow, all the work the team has put in will be for naught. Griffith, a gold medalist in 2000 and 2004 as a member of those U.S. Olympic teams, doesn’t see why this squad should lose.

Agler gave the players their choice about how to handle practice, scheduled against the Seattle broadcast of the gold-medal game. They decided to leave the practice at regular time, then watch a replay of the broadcast, having already learned the outcome.

Storm Stands Pat at Deadline, Looking at Free Agents

Friday, August 22nd, 2008

After taking the last two days off, the Storm returned to the practice court Friday. At the end of practice open to the media, the team was working on applying and playing against full-court pressure with a very interesting drill: Three offensive and defensive players on each side of the court, none of them allowed to change sides. It was sort of like the old 6-on-6 game that women used to play in many parts of the Midwest.

Following practice, Storm Head Coach Brian Agler offered an update on the team investigating potential options to help add depth in the frontcourt with Lauren Jackson out for the next 4-6 weeks after ankle surgery. Yesterday’s trade deadline came and went without a move from the Storm (or any other WNBA team). Agler walked reporters through the team’s thought process with regard to a potential deal.

Having dealt a second-round pick to Atlanta for Camille Little in June, the Storm still has its first-round pick available, but Agler emphasized that the big picture has to be taken into account, especially making a deal this late in the season.

“Obviously, everybody’s always interested in first-round draft picks,” he said, “but what you consider trading a first-round draft pick, you want somebody who can come in and make an immediate impact for you. Then you have to evaluate that person and what the status of their contract is. If we were going to trade a first-round pick for somebody who was an unrestricted free agent, we would basically have them for eight games and, if we’re fortunate enough to get into the playoffs, the playoffs. Then you have no more rights. Now, you can get them and get them extended into a contract to keep them out of that free agency [as Detroit did with Taj McWilliams-Franklin last week].

“There’s just a lot of things to consider and we didn’t have a lot of time to put all those pieces into place.”

The Storm still has the opportunity to add a free-agent post player to the roster, and Agler said the team continues to explore those options. Immediately, many fans considered the possibility of signing a player who is currently playing in the Olympics but will be freed up at their conclusion. The Storm has looked into that, but Agler noted (specifically in regards to the Russian team) that visa issues could make adding an international player difficult.

“Unless they’ve got great contacts in the U.S. embassy,” he said, “to get something turned around to get a visa, it’s going to take weeks.”

Jackson’s Aussie teammate and former Storm center Suzy Batkovic might be a good fit, but she is getting married this fall and is not available.

The name of Russian center Maria Stepanova entered the rumor mill when Phoenix Mercury GM Ann Meyers Drysdale, offering color commentary for the U.S.-Russia semifinal, said Stepanova could sign with San Antonio after the break. A standout internationally who has played for the Mercury in the WNBA, Stepanova is now a free agent. However, it doesn’t appear she will be coming to the league.

“I know there were rumors out there of her going to San Antonio,” Agler said. “That was sort of the talk over there (in Beijing). Her agent said that’s not going to happen.

“It’s been a stretch to get her to come over for a max salary. Now we’re talking about a short period of time, getting a visa, people not having big dollars to throw at her to do it, because most people are stretching their cap as it is. I think that people looked into it, obviously, but when it’s all said and done it would have been real hard to do that.”

Olympic Stats/Semifinals Preview

Thursday, August 21st, 2008

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s semifinals, here’s a look at updated Olympic team stats.

Team             Gr    Diff   ORating Rank   DRating Rank    Pace

United States     B    58.7    133.8    1      76.6    1     73.6Australia         A    31.7    115.4    2      84.1    2     72.5China             B     6.3    101.1    4      94.1    5     72.0Russia            A     6.0    102.6    3      94.4    6     69.5Spain             B     3.2     96.7    5      92.8    4     73.0Belarus           A    -5.2     87.2   10      92.4    3     73.8Czech Republic    B    -9.8     89.5    9      99.5    8     72.9South Korea       A   -18.3     90.9    8     107.4    9     70.0

Here are the Four Factors numbers on offense and defense for all teams.

Team             Gr    eFG%    OR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.474   0.425   0.250   0.139Belarus           A   0.413   0.339   0.174   0.225China             B   0.465   0.274   0.239   0.164Czech Republic    B   0.431   0.303   0.221   0.222Russia            A   0.486   0.372   0.244   0.211South Korea       A   0.458   0.170   0.139   0.172Spain             B   0.485   0.300   0.220   0.219United States     B   0.607   0.423   0.167   0.127
Team             Gr    eFG%    DR%   FTM/FGA   TO%

Australia         A   0.406   0.768   0.196   0.203Belarus           A   0.434   0.738   0.225   0.184China             B   0.429   0.651   0.134   0.174Czech Republic    B   0.464   0.653   0.242   0.200Russia            A   0.438   0.732   0.194   0.169South Korea       A   0.525   0.561   0.242   0.233Spain             B   0.466   0.650   0.220   0.238United States     B   0.403   0.744   0.172   0.254

I’ve also used the Log5 method to predict each team’s chances of advancing and finishing in each position.

Team             Final   Gold  Silver  Bronze    4th

United States     99.6   94.0    5.6     0.4     0.0Australia         94.4    5.9   88.5     5.3     0.3China              5.6    0.0    5.6    47.8    46.5Russia             0.4    0.0    0.3    46.5    53.1

The USA remains a heavy favorite, to understate the issue. By these numbers, there’s little drama in the semifinals. Subjectively, that’s not the case. Let’s look at the two matchups.

USA vs. Russia
History is clear: Russia saves its best efforts for matchups against the U.S. Russia has always been unpredictable, but this year that’s even more true because of what appear to be legitimate chemistry issues only exacerbated by the addition of Becky Hammon. As I’ve noted before, however, Russia played much worse in the group round and in the quarterfinals in Brazil, and it did not matter in the semifinals.

From a statistical perspective, Russia’s size shows up on the glass, where Australia, the U.S. and Russia (in that order) are the three dominant teams. The USA has rebounded well against smaller teams, but sometimes allows offensive boards to bigger squads like Russia. If Russia wins, presumably 6-8 center Maria Stepanova will have a big game.

A key matchup will pit Hammon against Sue Bird at the point. Hammon has the ability to exploit the USA defense by getting to the basket. Nuria Martinez showed this vulnerability to dribble penetration in keeping Spain in the game for a half. However, the strength of the U.S. defense has been forcing turnovers, and Hammon has committed nearly four a game in these Olympics. (Her assist-to-turnover ratio is 5-to-23; ouch!) If the USA can turn Hammon over, it figures to frustrate both her and her Russian teammates while also offering transition buckets.

Lastly, watch the first quarter closely. In Brazil, Russia jumped out early thanks to hot shooting and the U.S. fell too far behind to catch up. While the last two games (blowing a big halftime lead against Australia, coming back against Spain) have bucked the trend, Russia generally plays much better from ahead. Team chemistry could be a major issue if the USA gets off to a quick start. If Russia is close after one quarter and especially at the half, the U.S. will likely be unable to pull away as it has against lesser competition thus far in the Olympics.

Australia vs. China
This game took on more drama when Penny Taylor sprained her right ankle during Tuesday’s quarterfinal win over the Czech Republic. Though Taylor has not had a big Olympics, she’s a key threat for the Opals, especially with Lauren Jackson playing at less than 100 percent. The Aussies hope to have Taylor for this game, but it’s more likely she will return on Saturday.

The Australian offense has yet to really click for an entire game in Beijing. Taylor’s absence would only exacerbate the issue. Belinda Snell will be critical with or without Taylor, but if Taylor is out and the Chinese defense is focused on Jackson (as it figures to be either way), Snell becomes the team’s best offensive option. Suzy Batkovic and Laura Summerton also need to offer the Opals scoring down low against a Chinese frontline that is not great defensively.

The offensive glass figures to be a major, major weapon for the Aussies. China is allowing opponents to grab 35.0 percent of their own misses, while the Opals have an Olympics-best 42.5 percent offensive rebounding rate. Add it up and it’s entirely possible that missed shots will be a 50-50 proposition for Australia, extending posessions and offering easy looks in the paint.

If China is to win, the Aussies will have to have a very poor shooting night, maybe get into some foul trouble up front and China will have to be hitting, its posts from midrange and perimeter players from long distance. China has the home-court advantage, and if that translates into the refereeing, that could help with getting Australia in foul trouble and keeping China out of it as well as keeping the Aussies off the line, where they like to live. The X-factor is that Tom Maher knows the Opals’ core players very well, information that could serve China well. It would still be a massive upset if Australia loses, but don’t rule it out.