Archive for August, 2008

Trade Analysis: Taj for Tasha

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

Never content to cede the spotlight, even to the Olympics, “Trader Bill” Laimbeer pulled off another big deal Tuesday, sending rookie center Tasha Humphrey, wing Shay Murphy and a 2009 second-round pick to the Washington Mystics for veteran center Taj McWilliams-Franklin. The deal is obviously a response to the loss of All-Star post Cheryl Ford for the remainder of the season to a torn ACL as the Shock looks to retain its position as the favorites in the Eastern Conference.

Does it accomplish that? Let’s take a look at the numbers. We’ll run through three scenarios: The Shock with a healthy Ford, with Humphrey and now with McWilliams-Franklin. For the most part, we can safely leave Murphy aside, since she had just played 122 minutes since joining Detroit in a deal earlier in the season.

Together, Ford and Humphrey had averaged an even 40 minutes per game for the Shock this season, so let’s consider them as playing one position even though they often played together and Ford was considered the power forward and Humphrey the center, with Kara Braxton and Olayinka Sanni also sharing time in the middle.

Let’s quickly look at the players as rated by my rating system, which estimates the Offensive Rating, the Defensive Rating and a winning percentage for an imaginary team made up of four average players and the player in question. Lastly, WARP estimates the wins the player has contributed as compared to a replacement-level player in their minutes.

Player       Win%   ORtg   DRtg   WARP--------------------------------------Ford         .606   96.7   93.8    3.1Humphrey     .624   99.4   95.9    1.6McWilliams   .581   94.9   92.7    3.6

Both Ford and McWilliams-Franklin have played liked All-Stars this season. Humphrey has actually been somewhat more effective on a per-minute basis, but has not been nearly as valuable because of her limited minutes. I’m not sure about the assertion that McWilliams-Franklin has been the better defender and Ford the better offensive player, but it’s no surprise that the undersized Humphrey comes out as a great offensive player who is something of a liability at the defensive end.

If we project out Ford’s and Humphrey’s minutes per game over a full 34-game season, Ford would be worth 5.1 WARP and Humphrey 2.9 for a total of 8.0 wins above replacement. Obviously, that’s excellent for one position. Unfortunately, that option was no longer available after Ford’s injury.

In theory, Detroit could have bumped Humphrey’s minutes way up, but for a variety of reasons – including foul trouble; Humphrey has averaged 7.9 fouls per 40 minutes – that was unlikely to happen. We got a look at this lineup, more or less, in Detroit’s loss to San Antonio before the Olympic break. Humphrey played 11 minutes after picking up four early fouls, with newly-signed Kelly Schumacher playing 18. Let’s assume Humphrey would have played about 20 minutes per game, with Braxton (who has rated right around average) adding five more and Schumacher (a replacement-level contributor last year in Phoenix) picking up the rest.

Under that scenario, Humphrey would be worth 4.2 WARP over a season, Braxton an extra 0.5 and Suchmacher at replacement level for a total of 4.7 WARP. That’s a fairly significant drop off from the Ford-Humphrey duo, though you didn’t need stats to tell you that.

Our last scenario is now reality. McWilliams-Franklin has been averaging 33.2 minutes per game in Washington. Let’s conservatively project that drops to 30 a night in Ddetroit, with Braxton again picking up five minutes a game and Schumacher the other five. There, McWilliams-Franklin would be worth 5.0 wins above replacement and the group 5.5 WARP.

Even though McWilliams-Franklin is an able replacement for Ford, giving up Humphrey means the Shock is still not as strong as before Ford’s injury. The short-term gain from this deal also might be less than conventional wisdom would have it, though this analysis was more conservative in projecting McWilliams-Franklin’s minutes than Ford’s. It’s also difficult to quantify the value of McWilliams-Franklin’s veteran presence in the postseason.

With Connecticut close in the East, every bit of improvement will help Detroit in its quest for a third straight WNBA Finals appearance and a third championship. However, the Shock may regret letting go of the promising Humphrey. That’s why this is a great trade for Washington, which contines to stockpile young talent by dealing veteran players for younger ones. In Humphrey, Alana Beard, Monique Currie and Crystal Langhorne, the Mystics have four building blocks in place. Only one thing is missing, and that’s a point guard. If Washington can address that this off-season, preferably in the draft but potentially in free agency, the Mystics will be back in the playoff picture as quickly as next season.

There’s reason to be careful in evaluating Humphrey, who has yet to play big minutes regularly in the WNBA and dropped to the 11th pick and Detroit in the April WNBA Draft. Still, when the Mystics acquired McWilliams-Franklin at the start of training camp for DeLisha Milton-Jones, I suggested Washington would have preferred to get a younger player. In Humphrey, the Mystics have gotten a talented one indeed.

Beijing Play Underway

Saturday, August 9th, 2008

Three games into the 2008 Olympics, the big winner is fans (at least in the U.S.) who are able to watch these games online. Although the lack of commentary requires a bit of an adjustment, the quality is excellent. You can also catch archives of the games at NBCOlympics.com.

The big result so far is China just knocking off Spain by a 77-74 final, an outcome that seems to confirm the notion that the hosts might be the best of the teams outside the big three (Australia, Russia, U.S.). China’s defense really seemed to frustrate Spanish star Amaya Valdemoro, and a big night from 18-year-old forward Alba Torrens (20 points and a spot on my radar) wasn’t enough to make up for it.

Belarus kept things reasonably close in the second half, but predictably Australia cruised in the tournament opener. In between, we saw an important game between Mali and New Zealand that could end up determining fifth and sixth place in Group B. Despite a commendable effort from the African champs, the Tall Ferns held on for the 76-72 win.

Olympics Links and More

Friday, August 8th, 2008

Hard to believe, but we’re seven and a half hours away from the start of women’s basketball in the 2008 Olympics. Australia tips things off against Belarus at 6:00 p.m. Pacific, a game that should theoretically be available in the U.S. via Webcast on NBCOlympics.com. You might be able to watch on NBC’s special basketball channel, but the Sports Northwest Magazine blog reported earlier this week that Comcast will not carry the channel locally.

The USA plays its first game against the Czech Republic tomorrow morning at 5:00 a.m. with coverage on the USA Network, but what’s not clear is whether that coverage will be live or not. On a Saturday morning, TiVo sounds like the way to go.

Alright, how about some links. First off, I hope you’ve been following WNBA.com as it covers the Olympics from all angles. My favorite so far has been a joint interview with Storm star Lauren Jackson and former Storm guard Tully Bevilaqua, the two active WNBA players on the Australian Defence Force Opals.

Adam Hirshfield got some help from NBC analyst and two-time gold medalist Teresa Edwards in breaking down all the competition in Beijing.

There’s also a nice photo gallery from Thursday’s U.S. practice. Meanwhile, USA Basketball offers quotes from Thursday’s media availability and a scouting report of the Czech Republic.

Q over at Rethinking Basketball offers his take on the U.S. Olympic Team, including an analysis of how the team is doing in terms of building on-court chemistry on the fly.

I’m of the opinion that the talk by the Aussies of physical U.S. play in the finale of the Diamond Ball Tournament has been blown way out of proportion by a media eager for any hint of scandal, but if you’re into that sort of thing I’d say The Australian – complete with a “Trash Talk” graphic featuring LJ and Lisa Leslieis the most dramatic example.

As for Storm center Kelly Santos, here’s a loose translation of an AP story on Brazil and its opening game against South Korea.

“I’m going to contribute with my experience because this is a very young team,” Santos said (roughly). “We have to continue working hard and I believe that we can advance to the quarterfinals.”

Lastly, a little WNBA news that affects the Storm and the Western Conference playoff race. Sacramento forward Rebekkah Brunson, who had been playing with torn cartilage, had surgery on her right knee Wednesday. If Brunson is able to get back in the minimum four-week timeframe, she would miss two games, which still could make it slightly more difficult for the Monarchs as they battle for one of the last two playoff spots in the West. At worst, Brunson could miss the remainder of the regular season. Though unheralded Crystal Kelly should be able to step up, Sacramento’s depth up front will take a hit in Brunson’s absence. There is an outside chance DeMya Walker could return to the lineup after the break.

USA Wins Thriller, Diamond Ball

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

If the Olympic gold-medal game is anything like this morning’s Australia-U.S. clash for gold in the FIBA Diamond Ball Tournament, we are in for a real treat. Even in what was technically an exhibition game, both teams played to win and the outcome came down to the final minutes as the U.S. women held on for a hard-fought 71-67 victory over the Australian Defence Force Opals to win the Diamond Ball Tournament. Here’s FIBA.com’s recap as well as one from USABasketball.com.

The USA led in the early going, but the game was tight throughout the second half. With 4:27 to play, two Laura Summerton free throws made it a two-point game at 67-65. From there, the U.S. women clamped down on defense, allowing just one basket over seven possessions the rest of the game. That score by Penny Taylor answered a Lisa Leslie on the bucket end to keep it a two-point game, but Tina Thompson’s midrange score made it a two-possession game with 1:09 to play. On the subsequent possession, the U.S. forced the Opals into a shot-clock violation after an errant attempt from downtown by Kristi Harrower. Harrower had the ball stolen with 10 seconds left and that was the game as the U.S. women dribbled out the clock.

“The top level athlete is so competitive, and they have so much pride, that it wouldn’t matter if they were playing for marbles,” USA Head Coach Anne Donovan said after the game. “I think they’d go just as hard. This was great to see, and it was great preparation. Absolutely the best preparation we could have going into next week.”

Storm point guard Sue Bird played 30 minutes for the U.S., using a legitimate rotation. Bird scored 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting and had only one turnover in that span. The stingy international scorekeeping on assists has limited Bird’s numbers in this tournament (she had one today), but Bird has done a terrific job of taking care of the basketball and added two steals. The USA also got strong production from the L.A. Sparks duo of Lisa Leslie (14 points, 10 rebounds) and Candace Parker (12 and eight).

The big thing for the U.S. was defense, as the team held an extremely potent Opals attack to 35.8 percent from the field and forced 18 turnovers. While Taylor scored 19 points and the Storm’s Lauren Jackson had 16 on 6-of-13 shooting with eight boards, the rest of the Aussie lineup struggled. Suzy Batkovic, Kristi Harrower and Belinda Snell combined to miss 22 of their 27 shot attempts. The defense has to be a very encouraging sign for Donovan and the U.S.; the gameplan was very similar to how the USA won gold in Athens, something they were unable to repeat in the 2006 World Championships.

“Tonight was a tough one,” Bird said. “Australia is a very very good team and we were fortunate to pull it out. We’ve only had five, six practices together, this was our third game as a unit and we’ve gotten better every game. That’s a good sign. We still have eight more to go but as long as we continue to get better, get after it out there and work towards our talent, I think we’ll be okay.”

With China claiming Bronze and Russia rallying to finish fifth, the Diamond Ball Tournament wrapped up with awards. Jackson was named Tournament MVP and was joined on the All-Touranment team by Bird as well as Candace Parker and Diana Taurasi from the U.S. and China’s Sui Feifei.

Australia and U.S. Set to Clash

Monday, August 4th, 2008

courtesy USA Basketball

The finale of the Diamond Ball Tournament in preparation for the Olympics will feature a highly-anticipated matchup between the defending Olympic champions (the U.S.) and the reigning World Champions (Australia) after both teams went 2-0 in their contests against teams from their group.

The Diamond Ball Tournament is a great tune-up for the Olympics because it features not only the U.S. and Australia but also 2006 World Championship silver medalist Russia and emerging China, which figures to be tough in the Olympics thanks in no small part to home-court advantage.

The U.S. and the Australia Defence Force Opals each had one matchup against the other competitors and a second game against lesser competition.

Australia drew China in its opener and led by as many as 22 points en route to an 84-70 victory. Lauren Jackson, returning after missing an exhibition against Brazil with a minor ankle injury, led the Opals with 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting, grabbing four rebounds. Suzy Batkovic and Penny Taylor added 17 apiece for the strong Aussie offense.

Game two for the Opals saw Mali, ranked #31 in the current FIBA rankings, hang right with Australia for a quarter. It was 21-19 Opals at the end of the first period before Australia outscored the outmatched opposition 30-5 in the second quarter. Thereafter, the Opals cruised to a 112-43 victory. Nine players scored at least eight points for Australia, which shot 53.2 percent and had just six turnovers all game. Jackson led the way with 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting, adding a pair of blocks and steals. Ho hum.

In their opener, the Americans faced Latvia and a red-hot Aneta Jekabsone-Zogota. She scored 24 points as Latvia hung tough throughout the game before the U.S. women ultimately prevailed 84-74. It was a balanced scoring attack for the USA, which got double-figure point production from five players, including the Storm’s Sue Bird. In 19 minutes, Bird scored 11 points, dished out a pair of assists and had two steals. Bird had three three-pointers, which was key as the U.S. struggled from downtown, shooting 33.3 percent (4-of-12).

Early this morning Seattle time, the U.S. women squared off with Russia, the team that ended their 50-game winning streak in major international play during the 2006 World Championships. It was also the first matchup for new Russian point guard Becky Hammon against her home country. Surprisingly, it proved a lopsided win for the USA, which led 43-19 at the half and finished with a 35-point victory, 93-58.

Bird had two points and two assists in the game, deferring to backcourt-mate Diana Taurasi, who scored a game-high 21 points. Really, the U.S. won with defense, limiting Russia to 37.1 percent shooting and forcing 26 turnovers – six by Hammon alone. She scored 10 points on 4-of-10 shooting and had only one assist, though she did come up with three steals.

I’m always wary of reading too much into any non-medal matchup with Russia, which has a history of saving its best performances. That goes double for a game that is merely an exhibition contest. However, a 35-point margin of victory is certainly a surprise, and Russian Head Coach Igor Grudin sounded displeased with his team afterwards.

“This game looks like we are not ready,” he said. “We have a little bit of time to do something. We will work for that.”

As the two undefeated teams on top of their respective three-team groups, the U.S. and Australia face in the championship game of the tournament tomorrow. If I’m understanding the conversion correctly, that game will take place at 4:30 a.m. Pacific time.

USA's Place Entering Olympics?

Friday, August 1st, 2008

I agonized over today’s column evaluating the U.S. women going into the Beijing Olympics. I first started looking at some of the numbers comparing the USA’s performance in the 2006 World Championships to Australia and to the U.S. in the 2004 Athens Olympics last fall, but chose not to use them in my “state of the national team” story. Now that there’s so much talk of “what went wrong” for the USA in Brazil and the challenges facing the team going into Beijing, I figured it might be the right time to revisit the numbers.

I’ve got to say, even I’m not totally sold. One thing I didn’t fit into the column was that, as well as the U.S. defended overall in Brazil, its defense did break down against Russia in a way that didn’t happen in the semifinals and finals in Athens, when strong defense carried a mediocre U.S. offense against Russia and Australia. Still, I think that offense was more of an issue in that game, and who’s to say how things are different if Oxana Rakhmatulina – 4-of-22 from three-point range the rest of the tournament – doesn’t hit three triples. That’s the kind of thing that can happen in a one-and-done format that isn’t necessarily predictive going forward.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers compelling? Is the U.S. the clear favorite? I’m curious what readers think.