Archive for September, 2009

Storm Rising in Latest WNBA Stats

Tuesday, September 1st, 2009

On the strength of the current five-game winning streak, the Seattle Storm has clinched a playoff berth and firmly established a foothold amongst the league’s top three teams. Naturally, that strong play over the last two weeks is reflected in the Storm’s advanced stats. The team again rates as one of the most balanced in the WNBA, ranking in the top five in both offense and defense. Let’s see how the Storm compares to its peers around the league.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       109.3     Indiana        93.8
Minnesota     104.2     Los Angeles    96.3
Atlanta       101.0     Seattle        97.3
Seattle       100.9     Atlanta        97.6
San Antonio   100.8     Connecticut    98.4
Indiana       100.4     Washington     98.5
Chicago       100.4     New York       98.6
AVERAGE       100.4     Detroit       100.4
Connecticut    99.6     AVERAGE       100.4
Sacramento     99.2     Sacramento    103.2
Detroit        98.9     San Antonio   103.7
New York       97.5     Chicago       105.2
Washington     96.4     Minnesota     105.6
Los Angeles    95.6     Phoenix       105.8

A little reshuffling on both ends of the floor. The Silver Stars, as much as they have struggled defensively, continue to score the ball efficiently and have in fact moved into the league’s top five offenses. At the other end, the Storm’s big move is apparent in the team emerging from a pack of contenders as the third-best defense in the WNBA on a per-possession basis.

The “defense wins championships” believers may want to avert their eyes from the bottom of the Defensive Rating chart. Not only will Phoenix be the favorite in the West with the league’s worst defense, the last three defenses in the league could all make the postseason.

Overall, offense took another slight jump around the league, and we’re now all but certain to see the final league Offensive Rating be over 100 points per 100 possessions, a nice milestone.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.4     Indiana        22.1
Seattle        20.0     Atlanta        19.4
Los Angeles    17.7     Connecticut    18.0
Minnesota      14.9     New York       16.2
San Antonio    14.8     Detroit        16.0
Sacramento     13.1     Washington     15.9
                        Chicago        12.8

The only real change in the point differential numbers over the last week was the Sun sliding after losses in Seattle and Phoenix. It’s hard to separate the two contenders for the last playoff spot in the West, while three of the four contenders for the last spot in the East are essentially equal – Chicago continues to lag behind.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .725    6.9
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .734    6.9
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .733    6.7
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .726    6.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .683    6.1
Janel McCarville    NYL   .692    5.3
Lindsay Whalen      CON   .630    4.9
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .644    4.7
Shameka Christon    NYL   .615    4.6
Jia Perkins         CHI   .631    4.5

We have a new leader on the WARP board for the first time in a while. Nicky Anosike had a quiet week, allowing fellow Tennessee alum Tamika Catchings to take over the top spot. Lauren Jackson might have been your leader had she not been sidelined indefinitely with stress fractures in her lower back. Alas, now the race between Anosike and Catchings and maybe Diana Taurasi.

Individually, the big mover is Lindsay Whalen. For all the talk of Whalen’s “down season,” she has come out well by WARP all year long and now has surged into the WNBA’s top 10 in WARP after averaging 16.0 points and 6.3 assists in four games last week.