Phoenix 90, Indiana 77 (Series tied 2-2)
Pace: 79.7
Offensive Ratings: Phoenix 111.1, Indiana 98.2

Most of the time, the sport of basketball is too complex to be reduced to one factor. Tonight was not most of the time. In every major category save one, the Indiana Fever had the upper hand on the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals. However, the disparity between the two teams’ shooting from beyond the three-point line proved decisive in the Mercury’s 13-point victory,  which forces a deciding Game 5 on Friday at the US Airways Center in Phoenix (6:00 p.m., ESPN2).

In a considerable upset, the Fever actually outscored the Mercury from beyond the arc in the first three games of this series, making 24 triples to Phoenix’s 23. Tonight saw the Mercury find its perimeter stroke, making 10 three-pointers – four of them by Tangela Smith, the WNBA’s leader in three-point accuracy during the regular season. Meanwhile, Indiana had a night to forget in terms of long-distance shooting. The biggest culprit was Katie Douglas, who was 1-of-7 from beyond the arc, but the whole team contributed to a dismal 2-for-18 effort. While the Fever was unlikely to continue its lights-out shooting from early in this series, the 11.1 percent accuracy was a season low.

Give credit to the Phoenix defense for some splendid rotations that allowed the Mercury to clamp down on the paint while still contesting on the perimeter. However, Indiana got makeable looks that simply would not fall for Douglas or rookie Briann January (who missed all four of her three-point attempts and shot 1-of-9 overall). It was, in a phrase, one of those nights for the Fever. Those are tough to survive against a team as potent as the Mercury.

Besides exhorting her team to attack the basket, as ESPN’s microphones caught her doing on several occasions, I’m not sure what Lin Dunn’s options were. Douglas is far too good to bench even on a night where she is shooting so poorly. While January did not shoot the ball well, Indiana was nearly even (-2) with her on the floor but was outscored by 11 when starter Tully Bevilaqua ran the point.

One possible personnel adjustment could be at center, where Tammy Sutton-Brown has had immense difficulty chasing Smith around in this series. The math still worked in the Fever’s favor when Sutton-Brown was dominating the paint at the other end, but Smith largely quieted her tonight. Sutton-Brown scored 12 points on 5-of-10 shooting and gathered just three rebounds. Jessica Moore fouled out in eight minutes of action, so she wasn’t really an option, but I’m surprised we didn’t see more of Jessica Davenport. During her brief three-minute stint, Davenport completed a three-point play.

On the other side, Corey Gaines tightened up his rotation. The fivesome of Cappie Pondexter, Smith, Diana Taurasi, Penny Taylor and Le’Coe Willingham each played over 30 minutes, and Temeka Johnson (who would have played more if not for foul trouble) was the only other Phoenix player to see at least 10 minutes of action. DeWanna Bonner saw her minutes slashed dramatically, while Nicole Ohlde made a brief cameo and Ketia Swanier received a DNP-CD for the first time in the postseason. It worked, as basically every Mercury regular was effective. The depth of contributions – four players scored at least 16 points – allowed Phoenix to overcome the fact that the Fever again did a good job of slowing Taurasi.

The best outcome tonight was from the league’s perspective, as we’ll get a fifth and final game in a series that has been a showcase for WNBA basketball played at its highest level. Interest continues to pour in from fans of the game who have never really followed the W before. Intensity should be at a fever pitch on Friday, and this series has already been played with tremendous energy and passion as the two teams follow the lead of their uber-competitive superstars, Taurasi and Tamika Catchings. Fortunately, it’s been clean – even a brief incident between January and Johnson tonight was resolved quickly and amicably.

I was a little concerned by the way the Fever players seemed to be hanging their heads after the game, as if implying they felt they’d blown their shot at winning this series. Certainly this was Indiana’s best shot, what with fans again packing Conseco Fieldhouse. However, we know both that the Fever can win at the US Airways Center and that it’s possible to go on the road and win the deciding game of the WNBA Finals, as Phoenix did two years ago. This series is a long ways from over, and that’s great news for fans who are enjoying every minute.

(Apologies for the lack of a Game 3 recap. Since I’ve been busy, I’ll turn this into more of a forward-looking post on tonight’s Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, which tips off at 4:30 p.m. Pacific on ESPN2.)

Indiana 86, Phoenix 85 (Indiana leads series 2-1)
Pace: 80.5
Offensive Ratings: Indiana 109.5, Phoenix 103.8

The Phoenix Mercury badly wanted Sunday’s Game 3. Of course, this being a best-of-five series, both teams want to win every game. However, Phoenix was able to shake off a Game 2 loss and look ahead. That was more challenging in the wake of Sunday’s loss, as Phoenix Stan from SwishAppeal reported from the Mercury locker room. Head Coach Corey Gaines also revealed the importance he placed on winning with his rotation. Diana Taurasi played 37 minutes, the most she’s played in any game this postseason, while Cappie Pondexter was at 33. Gaines brought his starters back more quickly than usual during the fourth quarter, going with the potent trio of Taurasi, Pondexter and Penny Taylor for the game’s final 9:07.

Now, Phoenix must win to extend the series and return home for Game 5, and Taurasi used the word “desperate” in talking with reporters yesterday (as reported by ESPN.com’s Mechelle Voepel). It would be a mistake to say that the Mercury needs to make big changes. After all, if Tangela Smith’s buzzer-beater had gone in, Phoenix would be a win away from the championship. The busy Voepel pointed to one of the most important things the Mercury could use tonight: improved production from DeWanna Bonner. The recipient of the WNBA’s Sixth Woman Award has fallen silent during the Finals, averaging 7.7 points on 38.9 percent shooting.

Lin Dunn said before the series that the Fever’s goal was to stop Diana Taurasi, and her team has been equal to the task. The WNBA’s MVP has been limited to 32.7 percent accuracy from the field and 6-of-26 shooting from downtown. That defensive attention should open things up for the Mercury’s secondary options. Le’Coe Willingham took advantage in Game 3, and Penny Taylor has been strong most of the series. It’s Bonner who could get the Phoenix offense back near its usual efficiency by shooting the ball better.

Also worth watching tonight: how Gaines uses Temeka Johnson. Phoenix’s starting point guard hit some big shots in Game 1, but has been largely invisible the last two games. She had the worst plus-minus of any Mercury starter on Sunday (-9; Taurasi, at -1, was the only other Phoenix starter in the negatives) and barely played in the fourth quarter. With everything on the line, will Gaines be more aggressive in benching Johnson to play Pondexter and Taurasi together in the backcourt?