While the Storm has already opened up a healthy lead in the Western Conference, the East remains a mess as we approach the end of June. The top four teams are separated by just a game and a half, and advanced statistics do little to help us make distinctions between these teams. Still, let’s take a look. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle       111.5     Indiana        94.0
Phoenix       108.9     Washington     95.9
Atlanta       102.8     Seattle        98.1
Connecticut   102.8     Connecticut    98.3
New York      102.0     Atlanta        98.4
LEAGUE        101.8     Chicago       101.0
Chicago       101.7     LEAGUE        101.8
Indiana       101.7     New York      102.6
Washington    100.5     San Antonio   105.0
San Antonio    99.8     Tulsa         105.8
Los Angeles    97.7     Minnesota     106.5
Minnesota      97.2     Los Angeles   107.1
Tulsa          94.9     Phoenix       109.3

For the most part, we’re starting to see Offensive and Defensive Ratings stabilize, so let’s consider some interesting teams.

Chicago and New York are the two closest teams to league average this season. The Sky ranks an identical sixth in both offense and defense on a per-possession basis, while the Liberty is fifth and seventh, respectively, but also just above and just below the league as a whole in both categories. In this year’s Eastern Conference, that has proven an unsuccessful combination, as Atlanta and Connecticut offer similar balance at a higher level at both ends of the floor and Indiana and Washington have won with a defense-first mentality.

The Lynx continue to lag everyone save Tulsa in Offensive Rating, which is surprising because the Lynx had the league’s second-best offense most of 2009 – even without Seimone Augustus. Minnesota’s two-point percentage (40.8 percent) almost looks like a typo; nobody else in the league is shooting worse than 44.4 percent inside the arc. All three Lynx shooting guards – Hamchetou Maiga-Ba (39.4 percent), the injured Candice Wiggins (32.1 percent) and inconsistent rookie Monica Wright (31.7 percent) – have shot under 40 percent on twos, while Nicky Anosike (42.9 percent), Charde Houston (43.9 percent) and Lindsay Whalen (40.9 percent) have all shot far worse than their career marks. You have to figure this will turn around, but right now it is proving costly for Minnesota.

On a more positive note, the Mystics have emerged as one of the league’s best defenses. Fifth a year ago, Washington has taken another leap and now ranks behind only the Fever in terms of Defensive Rating. Washington is doing it without any players, save newly added Katie Smith, considered great individual defenders, and even Smith is no longer the defensive force she once was. The Mystics are last in the league in shot blocking and only average in terms of steals, but Julie Plank’s defensive system puts players in the right place and they have executed very well.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .833     Indiana        .678
Phoenix        .497     Washington     .642
San Antonio    .342     Connecticut    .602
Los Angeles    .289     Atlanta        .602
Minnesota      .283     Chicago        .490
Tulsa          .207     New York       .474

Here’s where the Eastern Conference continues to tighten up. The difference between first and fourth in terms of expected wins based on point differential is less than three games over a full 34-game season. The Sky and Liberty are both playing well from this perspective. The Hollinger Power Rankings, which take schedule into account, do suggest that Indiana is clearly the No. 1 team in the East. The Fever has played a hard slate, including two games apiece against the Storm and the Sun.

The biggest difference between actual record and expected record now has to belong to the Mercury, which is 5-9 after dropping four consecutive games but has barely been outscored on the season. After playing in Atlanta on Tuesday, Phoenix has four of its next five games at home, so don’t be surprised if the Mercury gets rolling sooner rather than later.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .784    4.4
Tamika Catchings    IND   .812    4.0
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .730    3.7
Tina Charles        CON   .714    3.1
Sue Bird            SEA   .669    2.8
Monique Currie      WAS   .695    2.8
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .650    2.7
Katie Douglas       IND   .681    2.7
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .660    2.7
Camille Little      SEA   .678    2.6

It’s not even the midpoint of the season, but I think we can safely say that – barring injury – Tina Charles has Rookie of the Year wrapped up. The No. 1 overall pick has been the league’s fourth-best player in terms of WARP, while no other rookie has posted more than 1.4 WARP (Chicago’s Epiphanny Prince is second). The more pressing question is how historic Charles’ debut campaign might be. Just two true rookies in league history have surpassed 6.5 WARP: Tamika Catchings (11.2; she was a year older because she missed her first season out of college with a torn ACL) and Candace Parker (10.5). Lauren Jackson (6.4) ranks third on the list; it’s kind of amazing in hindsight that she lost out on ROY honors to Portland’s Jackie Stiles (1.7).

Elsewhere, Crystal Langhorne breaks into the top 10 for the first time since the end of June on the strength of a performance that earned her Eastern Conference Player of the Week. Phoenix’s Penny Taylor drops out, though it was hardly much of a slide. She’s currently 11th in WARP.

Having already played 13 games, the Storm has moved well past the first third of its season, but this is the closest we’ll get for the league as a whole, which has completed 34.3 percent of the schedule thus far. By this point, things should be shaking out a little, yet the standings remain muddled in both conferences – aside from the Storm leading the West.

Let’s take a look. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle       111.6     Indiana        92.9
Phoenix       110.4     Connecticut    96.2
Connecticut   103.9     Washington     96.4
Atlanta       103.0     Seattle        97.7
LEAGUE        102.2     Atlanta        98.9
Chicago       101.8     LEAGUE        102.2
Indiana       101.1     Chicago       102.3
New York      101.0     New York      104.8
Los Angeles   100.4     Tulsa         106.4
Washington     99.8     San Antonio   106.7
San Antonio    98.7     Minnesota     106.8
Minnesota      97.5     Los Angeles   108.2
Tulsa          95.4     Phoenix       108.7

The first thing worth taking note of here is the league rating, which has surged to 102.2 points per 100 possessions. As we’ve discussed in the past, offenses tend to get better over the course of the season, so for the league to be scoring so efficiently overall this early is really quite remarkable. Last year, the league’s final Offensive Rating was 100.4, which was a WNBA record that might be very short-lived.

The Storm remains the class of the league offensively, but is getting heat from the Phoenix Mercury. The Mercury’s last five games are remarkable statistically. Phoenix is averaging an off-the-charts 122.4 points per 100 possessions on offense, but the Mercury’s Defensive Rating in that span is an incredible 114.7. You’ll remember that not long ago Phoenix actually ranked better on defense than on offense. Not anymore. The Mercury is nearly back to its familiar place atop the league’s offenses … but an equally familiar worst in the league in defense. That combination won Phoenix the championship last season.

As for the Storm, after battering San Antonio on the offensive glass last night, Seattle is now collecting 39.5 percent of its own misses. That would be the best offensive rebounding percentage in league history, eclipsing the 38.6 percent mark of the 2007 Monarchs.

There’s a huge gap between the Storm and the Mercury and everyone else in the league on offense, but Connecticut has emerged as one of the most balanced teams in the WNBA on both ends of the floor along with the Storm. Indiana, meanwhile, has gotten its offense going during a 6-1 stretch.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .846     Indiana        .704
Phoenix        .530     Connecticut    .678
Los Angeles    .319     Washington     .625
San Antonio    .286     Atlanta        .582
Minnesota      .266     Chicago        .460
Tulsa          .220     New York       .414

After the Sun’s pair of road victories out West this weekend, the Eastern Conference is now 16-5 in interconference play this season (with three of those five West wins coming from the Storm). The dominance is no less great in terms of point differential. The other four West teams are separated by just 1.5 games in the current standings, but the Mercury’s differential separates Phoenix from the rest of this back. The Mercury has outscored its opposition on the season, while Phoenix’s last three losses have come by a combined six points, which has left Phoenix below .500 at 5-7.

The Sky has been the hard-luck team in the East, winning 1.5 fewer games than an average team with the same point differential. Either way, though, Chicago trails the four playoff favorites in the East. Separating among this group is a little trickier. Atlanta’s point differential doesn’t match the team’s record, but the Dream has played nine out of 13 games on the road so far and should fare better as the schedule evens out.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .780    3.7
Tamika Catchings    IND   .820    3.5
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .755    3.2
Monique Currie      WAS   .756    2.7
Sue Bird            SEA   .676    2.7
Camille Little      SEA   .729    2.6
Tina Charles        CON   .708    2.3
Penny Taylor        PHO   .681    2.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .636    2.1
Katie Douglas       IND   .660    1.4

The three players at the top of the WARP leaderboard may be separating themselves from the pack, as they appear in the same order as they did in our last update two weeks ago. That means a potential MVP showdown at KeyArena when the Fever visits Friday. Tamika Catchings has been slightly better than Lauren Jackson on a per-minute basis, but the odd thing about that is they’ve reversed their usual patterns. Catchings is shooting 48.1 percent from the field this year, while it’s Jackson who is down at 42.0 percent, largely because nearly a third of her attempts have been beyond the arc.

11 games into the season, it’s becoming clear Monique Currie is in this leaderboard to stay. Currie’s 50 percent three-point shooting is somewhat fluky, but even if we take her down all the way to 33.3 percent she’s still among the league’s best players because she’s maintaining a solid True Shooting Percentage while using more than a quarter of Washington’s possessions as the go-to player for the Mystics in Alana Beard’s absence.

Interesting question posed to me by Dick Fain before yesterday’s Storm game: Was Sue Bird’s five-game stretch before Sunday, when she averaged 17.2 points and 6.6 assists on 53.3 percent shooting, better than her performance as the Storm’s lead scorer when Jackson was injured late in the 2008 season? I’d say yes, because of the combination of scoring and playmaking Bird has maintained lately – not to mention an assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly five during that run.

This is the first appearance in the top 10 this season for Mercury teammates Diana Taurasi and Penny Taylor, driving the team’s recent offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, we wave goodbye to Candace Parker for good after season-ending shoulder surgery. While her team was struggling, Parker was off to a strong start to the year. We’ll hope to see her back at 100 percent to start 2011.