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Playoff Picture: Aug. 31

Wednesday, August 31st, 2011

The trends from the previous week reversed themselves yesterday. Not only did the Storm see a four-game winning streak snapped in L.A., every other Western Conference team save Tulsa was victorious, moving the Storm down the standings.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   6   -    2/2
Phoenix        17  12  6.5   3/2
Seattle        17  13  7.0   2/2
San Antonio    14  15  9.5   3/2
Los Angeles    13  17 11.0   3/1

Despite the Mercury currently holding a half-game advantage in the battle for second in the West, the Storm still controls its own destiny by virtue of the upcoming game between the two teams a week from Friday. The Storm is also still one win OR one Los Angeles loss OR one San Antonio loss away from clinching a playoff berth. That could happen as soon as tomorrow, when the Silver Stars host the Mercury.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.7   .92   .06   .02   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.2   .05   .60   .28   .07   .00
Atlanta       19.3   .04   .25   .41   .30   .01
New York      18.4   .00   .11   .30   .59   .00
Chicago       15.4   .00   .00   .02   .10  1.00
Washington     6.1   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.7  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.3   .00   .63   .33   .04   .00
Seattle       19.3   .00   .36   .59   .05   .00
San Antonio   17.4   .00   .01   .09   .77   .13
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .13   .87
Tulsa          3.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

The Mercury does now have the upper hand when it comes to claiming home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Other than that, not much change to the Western Conference projections. In the East, Atlanta has maintained its late surge up the standings. Back-to-back wins over Indiana give the Dream an outside chance of winning the conference. The Dream is now nearly as likely to finish second in the East as fourth, which has to be good news for the Fever. Indiana won’t want to see Atlanta until the Eastern Conference Finals.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(3) at Phoenix (2): 59%
(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 32%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 5%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 4%

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Around the Web: Aug. 29

Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

In her weekly interview for the Seattle Times, Jayda Evans talks with Storm center Ashley Robinson about the race for Most Improved Player in the WNBA and more.

Robinson: When you look at my career and my season? Definitely most improved. Honestly, I played like no minutes last year. You go from no minutes to getting to play important minutes for the defending champs? I could make an argument for myself and I know the Storm Crazies are making an argument. But I’m never mad for other people’s success.

Aaron Lommers scouts tonight’s rematch with the Sparks for the Everett Herald.

After Sunday’s victory, Bird talked about playing the Sparks twice in three days.

“We’ll just try to learn from this game,” Bird said. “It was tough. We had opportunities to go up 10 and maybe extend that lead and I think they were able to get back into the game. Hopefully we can learn from this, see what worked, see what didn’t, and I know they’re going to be doing the same thing. I think it is going to be another battle.”

In the process of breaking down Sunday’s game for Swish Appeal, Nate Parham highlights how Lauren Jackson’s return has helped the Storm take care of the basketball.

Part of the reason that the turnovers are going down is not only that Jackson is present, but also that she’s playing much, much better than she was early in the season, accounting for an average of 26.78% of the team’s overall statistical production; that’s MVP-caliber production, even if it’s still not Jackson at her best. With Jackson both demanding more attention from the defense and balancing the court with an interior threat, things have started to open up for the Storm meaning they haven’t had to force things nearly as much to create scoring opportunities.

WNBA.com’s Brian Marin takes a look at the playoff race.

Seattle (17-12) sits in second place – a full six games behind Minnesota – and holds just a half-game lead over Phoenix (16-12). This matchup is essentially a lock to happen in the first round, as neither team can catch the Lynx and they’re unlikely to be caught by San Antonio (13-15) or Los Angeles (12-17).

The league has also confirmed that the Storm can clinch tonight with a San Antonio loss.

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Playoff Picture: Aug. 28

Monday, August 29th, 2011

With last night’s win over the Los Angeles Sparks, the Storm is on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. In fact, based on my research (not yet confirmed by any outside sources), that could happen before the Storm takes the court Tuesday in Los Angeles. A Storm win will secure a playoff spot, as will a Sparks loss. In addition, a San Antonio loss should also do the trick. First, take a look at the standings and I’ll explain why.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      23   6   -    3/2
Seattle        17  12  6.0   2/3
Phoenix        16  12  6.5   3/3
San Antonio    13  15  9.5   4/2
Los Angeles    12  17 11.0   4/1

Los Angeles hosts the Silver Stars on Sept. 6, so the Sparks winning out would mean at least one more loss for San Antonio. So if the Silver Stars lost before then, the worst-case scenario for the Storm would be a three-way tie at 17-17 with San Antonio and Los Angeles. As best I can tell, the Storm would win any such tie.

The Storm is also closing in on guaranteeing a top-three spot in the West, which would mean avoiding the Minnesota Lynx in the first round of the playoffs. Two wins, or a win and a San Antonio loss, would do the trick.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.7   .91   .07   .01   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.8   .06   .76   .14   .04   .00
Atlanta       18.7   .02   .12   .43   .41   .01
New York      18.1   .00   .05   .41   .44   .10
Chicago       15.8   .00   .00   .02   .10   .89
Washington     6.1   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.7  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.1   .00   .46   .50   .04   .00
Seattle       19.8   .00   .54   .45   .01   .00
San Antonio   17.0   .00   .00   .05   .83   .12
Los Angeles   14.6   .00   .00   .00   .13   .87
Tulsa          3.7   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

While the West is beginning to take shape, Atlanta’s win over Indiana and Chicago holding off New York have combined to muddle the East picture. Suddenly, the Dream has an outside shot at home-court advantage in the first round and is the slight favorite to overtake the Liberty for third place. The Sky’s win kept alive Chicago’s flickering playoff hopes.

Out West, it looks likely that second place will come down to the Storm and the Mercury. Los Angeles still has some chance of coming back to surpass struggling San Antonio for the final spot.

Two other simulation notes: Minnesota now shows up with a 19 percent chance of winning out to match last year’s 28-6 finish by the Storm. Tulsa, meanwhile, is more likely than not to win another game and surpass the 3-27 1998 Washington Mystics for the worst record in league history. Given how well the Shock has played over the last nine games, I’d be a little surprised now if they didn’t win at least once more.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 50%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 45%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 4%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 1%

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Playoff Picture: Aug. 26

Saturday, August 27th, 2011

A big Friday night in the WNBA had huge ramifications on the Western Conference Playoff picture. The Minnesota Lynx handled the San Antonio Silver Stars at home, moving within a win of securing the top spot in the West. At the same time, the Phoenix Mercury was losing a close game to the Connecticut Sun on the road. Later in the evening, the Los Angeles Sparks were stunned at home by the Tulsa Shock, which snapped a 20-game losing streak. The results were all to the benefit of the Storm, which now stands all alone in second in the West. The Storm’s magic number for clinching a playoff spot of some kind is down to a combination of three wins plus Los Angeles losses. With a home-and-home set against the Sparks upcoming, the Storm has a chance to clinch as soon as Tuesday with a sweep.

Here’s how the standings look.


Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      22   6   -    3/3
Seattle        16  12  6.0   3/3
Phoenix        15  12  6.5   3/4
San Antonio    13  14  8.5   5/2
Los Angeles    12  16 10.0   4/2

Naturally, yesterday’s results also changed things substantially in our 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.6   .92   .07   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.7   .07   .90   .02   .02   .00
New York      18.5   .00   .05   .71   .20   .05
Atlanta       17.9   .00   .01   .25   .72   .02
Chicago       15.3   .00   .00   .02   .06   .92
Washington     6.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.2  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .38   .47   .14   .00
Seattle       19.7   .00   .58   .34   .08   .00
San Antonio   17.6   .00   .04   .18   .67   .10
Los Angeles   14.8   .00   .00   .01   .10   .89
Tulsa          2.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

What’s likely to draw your eye is the fact that the Mercury has a slight edge on the Storm on projected average wins, yet the Storm is much more likely to take the second seed. The explanation is that if the two teams tie, the Storm will almost certainly hold the edge. The best Phoenix can do is tying the season series 2-2 by winning at KeyArena on Sept. 9. However, because the Storm’s conference record (11-6) is much better than the Mercury’s (8-8), I don’t see a possible scenario where the second tie-breaker doesn’t favor the Storm.

Besides the results, changes in the simulation also reflect constantly updating our perceptions of team ability. That benefits the Silver Stars, who got Danielle Adams back in the lineup last night. That might not have made a difference at Minnesota, but will help San Antonio the rest of the season. With five of their last seven games at home, the Silver Stars are looking good for a playoff berth.

One last addition to the simulation was a specific look at which opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 44%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 33%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 14%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 8%
(3) at San Antonio (2): 1%

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Around the Web: Storm Hosts Tulsa

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

The latest edition of the Seattle Times Dishin’ It with Sue Bird series has a lot of fun material, like Bird evaluating her H-O-R-S-E competition on the Storm.

Q: Who’s the one player on the team you don’t want to play in H-O-R-S-E?

Bird: Snelly (Belinda Snell). She doesn’t miss. Watch her shoot, it’s scary.

Q: What’s the one shot you always take when you play H-O-R-S-E that you know will get you a letter?

Bird: I’ve got two. One is a bank free throw. Call ‘bank’. And the other is this little swoop shot. You’ve got to be standing kind of where the block is, but outside the key. You use your inside hand, and you can’t step inside the key and you have to bank it in.

(You may remember that a few years ago Bird beat ESPN 710’s Jim Moore in a game of H-O-R-S-E.)

In today’s Times, Jayda Evans looks at how Swin Cash is working to get out of a recent slump.

“You can consider it a slump, offensively I haven’t been playing as well or effective as I was the majority of the year,” said Cash, who’s looking for a turnaround when Seattle (15-12) hosts Tulsa (1-24) on Thursday. “I’m trying to work my way through. I know my team is going to need those things (scoring) from me, but I’ve got to just keep pushing. There’s not much you can do besides that.”

Evans also has a look at reaction by Storm players and coaches to the news that Tennessee legend Pat Summitt has been diagnosed with early-onset dementia.

Legendary Virgina coach Debbie Ryan, who retired in March, said she cried upon hearing the news Tuesday morning. Ryan coached for 34 years, defeating Summitt’s Vols once en route to winning a national championship.

Now a volunteer coach for the Storm, Ryan thought of her own public battle with pancreatic cancer. A survivor, she was diagnosed in 2000 and continued to coach the Cavilers.

“This is so difficult because she’s really been the matriarch of our whole sport and someone who you see as such a pillar of character and leadership,” said Ryan of Summitt, who led Tennessee to eight NCAA titles. “She will turn this around into something very positive because that’s the way she handles everything in life. She’ll find a good plan in helping millions and millions of people that might have to go through this. This was the first step, to talk about it.

Nate Parham previews tonight’s game for SBN Seattle.

6-foot-8 rookie center Liz Cambage is still adjusting to the WNBA in her first year in the U.S. from Australia, but has shown signs of coming around and becoming the type of player that made her the second pick in the 2011 WNBA Draft this spring. In her last game against the Storm at KeyArena on August 11, Cambage scored a career-high 24 points and 10 rebounds off the bench to help the Shock keep the game close in the fourth quarter.

On SwishAppeal, Parham looks at MVP candidates, including a certain Storm point guard.

3. Sue Bird, PG, Seattle Storm: Where would the Storm be without her?

Bird’s argument for the MVP award is pretty clear: it’s hard to imagine the Storm being close to playoff contention without Sue Bird.

That’s not only because of the clutch shots she’s made this season, but also because the Storm have always been noticeably less fluid with Bird off the floor and this year is no different. Aside from Lauren Jackson’s injury, most of their roster has seen a dip in productivity compared to last season. All Jackson’s injury has done is just remind us just how dominant a player Sue Bird can be when not focused exclusively on setting up teammates.

Parham also has a take on how Summitt’s diagnosis hit home for him.

I hesitated to even write this in the wake of Summitt’s sad news because it’s not really about me and I fully understand that it’s different for each person, particularly as I’ve learned more about the disease and seen other people who are dealing with it; it’s about what her and her family – real and Lady Vols – face as they try to get through this together. Nevertheless, this is the lens through which I read this news, both very literally at that moment and more abstractly; it’s hard to truly express the wave of empathy that came over me when I heard about this or anyone who has just been diagnosed at such a young age.

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Jackson’s Availability Still Day-to-Day

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Even though Lauren Jackson is back in the Storm’s lineup following hip surgery, the team continues to monitor how her hip is feeling and will alter her playing time accordingly – possibly even sitting her out entirely.

“How she feels the next day is what we base the next game’s minutes on – her recovery time,” said Storm Head Coach Brian Agler after Wednesday’s light workout. “Today she’s sore, so we’ll have to see how she feels tomorrow. As much as we don’t like to look in the big picture, we have to with her. She’s really sore today. She played a few more minutes last night than she did the first night. After the first game, it took her two days to really get back in the flow. We’ll gauge that tomorrow morning.”

Jackson played just under 22 minutes on Saturday in her first game in two months, then played 25 in last night’s win over San Antonio. If Jackson continues to respond well, her minutes will probably stay around 25 a night for the time being. But Agler is not taking for granted that Jackson will play all because the team does not want to overdo her comeback.

“I could see a scenario where if she doesn’t respond, we don’t play her,” he explained. “It can be that too. It’s not just using her for the moment and forgetting about the future for now. Let’s see how this goes, see how she feels, see how she recovers and then make our decision.”

Which is not to say the Storm does not expect Jackson to play tomorrow when the Tulsa Shock visits KeyArena (7:00 p.m., 1090 AM, Live Access, TIX).

“Right now we feel like she is, but tomorrow could be different,” said Agler. “Tomorrow she could be sore and she might not play. It’s just going to be a day-by-day, hour-by-hour thing.”

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Playoff Picture: Aug. 24

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Last night couldn’t have gone much better for the Storm. After finishing off the San Antonio Silver Stars in an important game, players turned on ESPN2 in the locker room to watch the final minutes of the New York Liberty’s road win over the Phoenix Mercury. The results gave the Storm a cushion of a game and a half over San Antonio for third and put the team a half-game back of Phoenix for second in the Western Conference. Here’s where we stand now, plus a bit on the remaining schedule:


Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      21   6   -    4/3
Phoenix        15  11  5.5   2/5
Seattle        15  12  6.0   4/3
San Antonio    13  13  7.5   5/3
Los Angeles    12  15  9.0   5/2

The Storm’s magic number for clinching a playoff berth is now down to a combination of five wins plus Los Angeles losses. Also worth noting is that the Storm now controls its own destiny for the West’s second seed. A win on Sept. 9 would give the Storm the tiebreaker and bring the two teams even in the loss column, so if the Storm wins out, it would win any possible tie with the Mercury.

Naturally, yesterday’s results also changed things in our 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.7   .94   .06   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.4   .05   .88   .04   .02   .00
New York      18.4   .00   .05   .69   .20   .06
Atlanta       17.8   .00   .03   .25   .70   .02
Chicago       15.1   .00   .00   .02   .07   .91
Washington     6.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.1  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.3   .00   .57   .34   .07   .02
Seattle       19.5   .00   .41   .50   .08   .02
San Antonio   17.3   .00   .02   .11   .55   .32
Los Angeles   16.3   .00   .00   .06   .29   .64
Tulsa          1.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

In the East, last night’s home loss to Atlanta was bad news for Chicago, which now makes the postseason in just nine percent of simulations. The Storm’s chances of finishing second in the West doubled after yesterday, with San Antonio now unlikely to finish any better than fifth. The Sparks also improved their odds of making the playoffs. Right now, Los Angeles is just a game and a half back of the Silver Stars.

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Advanced Stats Entering the Stretch Run

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

With three weeks left in the regular season, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.1     Indiana        96.2
Minnesota     107.6     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.5     Minnesota      97.3
Los Angeles   103.2     Seattle        97.9
Connecticut   102.4     New York       98.0
New York      101.3     San Antonio    98.7
San Antonio   101.0     Connecticut    99.6
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.8
Atlanta        98.5     LEAGUE        100.8
Seattle        97.4     Washington    105.1
Chicago        96.4     Phoenix       106.4
Washington     96.2     Los Angeles   107.3
Tulsa          88.6     Tulsa         107.8

The Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky are putting the lie to the preeminence of defense this season. The Mercury and Sky are largely mirror images (first on offense/10th on defense for Phoenix, 10th/second for Chicago), yet Phoenix’s defense is so far ahead of the pack that the Mercury is one of the league’s better teams while the Sky might be left out of the postseason.

The Sparks have won two of their last three with Candace Parker back in the lineup, but her return has yet to invigorate their defense. Los Angeles will have to find a way to stop opponents to make as serious run at the postseason.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .762     Indiana        .690
Phoenix        .616     Connecticut    .595
San Antonio    .563     New York       .543
Seattle        .497     Chicago        .495
Los Angeles    .375     Atlanta        .490
Tulsa          .027     Washington     .297

The Sky has a slight edge on Atlanta in terms of point differential, but not in the all-important standings, and as a result the Dream is the heavy favorite to claim the last playoff spot in the East. Other than that, not a lot of chances for teams to move too far up and down the rest of the season.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .780    7.6
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .709    6.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .729    5.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .683    5.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .640    4.7
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .617    4.5
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .650    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .651    4.3
Renee Montgomery    CON   .635    4.3
Tina Charles        CON   .602    4.2

Tamika Catchings is really beginning to open up ground on the rest of the field in terms of WARP. This might finally be the year where she wins a long-overdue MVP award. Sylvia Fowles and Penny Taylor also have some separation, but thereafter it’s fairly close from fourth to 10th, a group that includes six guards and Tina Charles.

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Around the Web: Storm Getting Healthy

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

With the return of Lauren Jackson the lineup and Katie Smith playing closer to 100 percent than she was at the start of the season, this may be the healthiest the Storm has been all year. That’s the crux of Jayda Evans’ story in today’s Seattle Times.

Guard Katie Smith still wears a protective boot for a left Achilles injury, but with her and Lauren Jackson (hip) in the lineup Saturday, the Storm was the healthiest it has been since June. Smith, the biggest offseason acquisition, is shooting 50.8 percent from the field in August while Jackson, a three-time MVP, scored 20 in Saturday’s one-point win over New York.

“The thing I felt as a coach is the depth we have,” Agler said. “It felt like finally we had our people back. (In the first quarter) we showed signs of what our team can be.”

On SwishAppeal.com, Nate Parham writes that Jackson’s dominant return is the latest evidence of her greatness.

However, what’s particularly remarkable about that performance is that she did all that in 21:43 minutes of play. If we look beyond just the fact that she scored 20 points in 22 minutes, the entirety of that level of performance is pretty remarkable in those limited minutes. Her valuable contributions ratio (VCR) – which is a per minute efficieny metric that approximates the quality of a player’s minutes – was a whopping 3.23; that number represents a player who is not only playing starter or All-Star level basketball, but someone who is dominant while on the court. Considering that she was obviously not yet in game shape – both in terms of visible signs of exhaustion and fouling out for the first time in years – it’s pretty remarkable.

In the Everett Herald, Aaron Lommers scouts tonight’s game with the San Antonio Silver Stars.

The next team to get a look at how much better the Storm can be is the San Antonio Silver Stars. A victory tonight over San Antonio would give the Storm a 11/2 game lead for third place in the Western Conference over the Silver Stars. It would also clinch the season series over San Antonio, giving the Storm the all-important tiebreaker.

Fun story in the Times on Sunday. Avid fisher Jackson went fishing with Times outdoor reporter Marc Yuasa and had better luck than usual catching salmon.

During the WNBA offseason, you can find Jackson on Australia’s eastern coast searching for fish or relaxing at her beachfront house.

“We go pretty much all the time when I’m home, and my mom and dad (who are retired) are out almost every day,” she said. “I go fishing with them for a couple of hours first thing in the morning, and if it’s not good, then we’ll go out after lunch.”

Big news from the WNBA, which announced yesterday the first league-wide marquee partnership deal with Boost Mobile.

As part of this partnership, the Boost Mobile brand will be prominently featured on the front of the game jerseys of ten WNBA teams, including Atlanta Dream, Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Indiana Fever, Los Angeles Sparks, Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, Tulsa Shock, and Washington Mystics. The jerseys, which will debut in games [tonight], will mark the first time the WNBA has had a league partner with jersey branding with multiple WNBA teams throughout the season other than adidas, the league’s official outfitter. Boost Mobile will also have a strong presence in these ten teams’ arenas, where its brand will be displayed on courts and pole pads.

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Playoff Picture: Aug. 22

Monday, August 22nd, 2011

With three weeks left in the WNBA regular season, it’s time to begin keeping an eye on where the Storm stands in the race for playoff positioning in the Western Conference. With a win and a San Antonio loss on Saturday, the Storm moved into third place in the conference.

Team            W   L   GB
--------------------------
Minnesota      20   6   -
Phoenix        15  10  4.5
Seattle        14  12  6.0
San Antonio    13  12  6.5
Los Angeles    11  15  9.0
Tulsa           1  23 18.0

Minnesota has clinched a playoff berth and Tulsa has been eliminated, but the other three spots remain up for grabs among four teams, including the Storm. Right now, the Storm’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is a combination of six Storm wins plus Los Angeles losses.

Tuesday’s game against San Antonio looms large in the playoff picture. A win would give the Silver Stars back the edge for third place, while a Storm victory would not only extend the lead to 1.5 games but give the Storm the edge in the head-to-head tiebreaker.

To try to get a sense of how much schedule will matter the rest of the way and give a sense of the possible outcomes, I built an Excel spreadsheet with a macro that simulates the remainder of the season 500 times. The simulator also breaks two-team ties correctly, but isn’t yet equipped to handle ties of three or more teams. Based on season performance to date, here’s how we’d expect things to play out, first in the East:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       23.7   .94   .05   .00   .00   .00
Connecticut   21.3   .05   .91   .04   .00   .00
New York      17.7   .00   .03   .61   .27   .09
Atlanta       17.1   .00   .02   .22   .50   .25
Chicago       15.8   .00   .00   .12   .25   .63
Washington     7.2   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.0  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       21.0   .00   .70   .24   .05   .00
Seattle       19.1   .00   .20   .50   .27   .03
San Antonio   18.2   .00   .10   .24   .57   .09
Los Angeles   15.4   .00   .00   .02   .12   .86
Tulsa          1.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

The top two spots in the East are almost locked up. There’s a little more variability after that,but we’d expect the Liberty and the Dream to round things out. In the West, there are virtually no scenarios where the Lynx finish anywhere but first. The Mercury has the inside track on claiming the second seed and home-court advantage, with the Storm currently ahead of the Silver Stars for third.

However, we know in the West that Lauren Jackson and Candace Parker returning from injuries has changed the playoff picture, as has Danielle Adams‘ absence. If I subjectively adjust the true team strength the rest of the season to reflect that, here are the results:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.2  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.9   .00   .72   .25   .03   .00
Seattle       19.1   .00   .22   .50   .23   .05
San Antonio   17.8   .00   .05   .21   .52   .22
Los Angeles   16.0   .00   .01   .05   .24   .71
Tulsa          1.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

This doesn’t make an enormous difference, which is probably instructive in and of itself. With just eight games remaining,it takes a lot to substantially alter a team’s outlook. But the Sparks do double their chances of making the playoffs. I for one am not ready to write Los Angeles off just yet.

A couple other notes on the simulation, using the subjective version:
- The Storm won at least 20 games 40 percent of the time.
- Eight percent of the time, Minnesota won out to match the WNBA record of 28 wins tied by the Storm last season.
- Tulsa finished with just one win 64 percent of the time, but there was one simulation out of 500 where the Shock ended up with three wins the rest of the way.

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