Archive for August, 2011

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Storm Hosts DigiGirlz

Friday, August 19th, 2011

The DigiGirlz with Karen Bryant.

On Aug. 19, the Storm welcomed the DigiGirlz to the team’s practice facility and business offices. 11 participants in this year’s Microsoft DigiGirlz High Tech Camp who indicated an interest in basketball were invited to attend a Storm practice and interview players Swin Cash, Ashley Robinson and Katie Smith while also meeting other members of the team.

After lunch, they returned to the Storm offices to write about their experience, edit photos and build a webpage. The DigiGirlz will also attend the Storm’s game against San Antonio next Tuesday and be recognized during a timeout. Check out their work!

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Going Beyond Wins and Losses

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

After last night’s loss to the Phoenix Mercury, the Storm now has four losses in the last five games, which works conveniently as a soundbite for analysts wishing to describe the team as “struggling.”

By any objective standard, however, it’s hard to describe last night’s game as a bad performance for the Storm, regardless of the outcome or the difference between the two halves. Playing one of the league’s better teams to a draw on the road is a positive effort. A better measure of performance incorporates the location of a game and the quality of the opposition, essentially putting performance on a level playing field.

On average, Phoenix has beaten teams by 3.4 points per game this season. Home court advantage in the WNBA tends to be worth about 3.5 points. Add those up and the Mercury would be expected to beat an average team by seven points at the US Airways Center. (In practice, Phoenix’s point differential at home is +7.8 points per game.) So even in a loss, the Storm played nearly five points better than average.

Often, Storm players will talk about how on the road, the goal is to have a chance to win at the end. The Storm has done that somewhat more frequently than its 4-10 record away from KeyArena would indicate. Three times this season, including last night, the Storm has had chances to tie or win in the closing seconds but has been unable to pull off the kind of miracle finish that was typical in 2010.

As a result, the Storm has several of what we’d term “good losses” – above-average performances in losses. The team’s last two road games (at New York before last night) both qualify, for example. Even a seven-point loss at Minnesota in July was a good loss because the Lynx have been so strong this season.

Intriguingly, this method produces more “good losses” for the Storm (five, in all) than “bad wins” (three, two of them against the Tulsa Shock). If the Storm had played average opposition every night, their record based on actual performance would be 15-10. In part, that reflects the fact that the Storm has played 14 road games to just 11 at home.

The Storm’s point differential, adjusted for schedule, isn’t quite as impressive as that record because of a pair of losses worse than any wins this season – Saturday’s home loss to Atlanta and a road blowout against the Los Angeles Sparks.

We can look at this graphically:

Adjusted performance (in green) is usually closer to average than point differential (in red) because we’re taking out the context of these games. Often, what is perceived as inconsistent performance by a team is really the variation in the schedule. A team that played exactly the same every night, for example, would have a straight line of green dots but red dots that would jump around depending on the quality of the opposition.

What of the last five games? Just twice in that span has the Storm’s true level of performance matched the outcome. A 14-point home win over Tulsa wasn’t really impressive, given the context, but the Storm played well on the road at both New York and Phoenix. This last five-game stretch has in fact been the Storm’s weakest of the season, but almost entirely due to how poorly the team played in losses both home and away to Atlanta. Those losses highlighted areas where the Storm needs improvement, but they’re also just two games.

None of this helps the Storm in the crowded Western Conference Playoff race, where the final scoreboard is in fact all that matters. But the team’s actual performance is a better indicator of what we can expect from the Storm over the last nine games of the season.

Posted in stats | Comments Off

Around the Web: Wright Suffers Personal Loss

Wednesday, August 17th, 2011

On her blog, Jayda Evans has the story about Tanisha Wright leaving the team and missing last night’s game after her mother passed away.

“All of us really feel for her (Tanisha) and support her and are here for her,” Agler said. “No one can imagine, unless you’ve gone through that, so we’ll welcome her back when it’s time for her to come back. Until then, we’ll be here for support.”

Wright was raised by her grandmother in Pennsylvania, leaving her mother in their native Brooklyn, NY at a young age. According to Agler, Wright will assume a lot of family responsibility in her mother’s absence.

In the Seattle Times, Evans writes about how last night’s game slipped away from the Storm.

Seattle, which has seemingly dealt with every kind of obstacle possible this season, carried on, but saw a 15-point lead slip away. It was the Mercury’s first win against the Storm since September 2009, ending a nine-game losing streak to Seattle.

With the score tied at 79, Bird said she made a bad read on a handoff to veteran Katie Smith. Mercury All-Star Diana Taurasi made a steal and raced downcourt for the game-winning layin with 6.3 seconds left in the game.

On SBN Arizona, Seth Pollack has a nice look at how the game turned around after halftime.

After the game both coaches acknowledged that Phoenix was able to take advantage of the Storm switching defense which put a smaller defender against a Mercury post player.

“They were just posting us deep in the lane on our defensive scheme an we didn’t fight around and got pinned deep and they took advantage of it,” Storm coach Brian Agler said.

Odeen Domingo of the Arizona Central writes about the importance of last night’s outcome.

The win gave the Mercury (14-10) sole possession of second place in the Western Conference, four games behind the Minnesota Lynx with 10 games left in the regular season. The second, third (San Antonio) and fourth (Seattle) places in the West are all within a game and a half of each other.

“It’s crunch time now,” Taurasi said. “One day you can be in second (in the conference) and the next you could be fourth. Against teams in our conference, we really have to step it up and feel like we can beat them. (Tuesday’s win) was huge for us.”

Posted in in the media | Comments Off

Advanced Stats: Offense Down

Monday, August 15th, 2011

After a week’s break to deal with Sue Bird content, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.2     Minnesota      95.8
Minnesota     107.0     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.7     Indiana        96.9
Los Angeles   103.9     Seattle        97.7
New York      102.0     San Antonio    98.3
San Antonio   101.3     New York       98.7
Connecticut   101.1     Connecticut    99.4
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.6
Atlanta        98.0     LEAGUE        100.8
Washington     97.9     Washington    105.0
Seattle        97.0     Phoenix       106.3
Chicago        96.5     Los Angeles   108.1
Tulsa          88.5     Tulsa         108.3

The most interesting note this week might relate to the league average, which is down from 101.6 points per 100 possessions two weeks ago. Typically, offense tends to get better as the season goes on, possibly because of defensive fatigue and possibly because of improved continuity on offense. That hasn’t been the case this year, and certainly not for the Storm, which has struggled to score the last week and a half or so. Fourth place in defense is also about as low as the Storm has been in the rankings all season.

Offensively, the big movers were the Sparks, who are now fourth in the league without the benefit of Candace Parker (more on her in a second). If Los Angeles can get anywhere close to average defensively, the team’s offense is good enough to win games. The defensive tiers we saw previously no longer exist, at least at the top, where there’s a gradual progression among the first nine teams before a huge gulf between above-average Atlanta and the struggling Mystics.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .783     Indiana        .674
Phoenix        .615     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .580     New York       .541
Seattle        .500     Chicago        .493
Los Angeles    .371     Atlanta        .486
Tulsa          .015     Washington     .345

For the most part, differential tends to mirror the actual standings right now. The lone exception is Atlanta ranking behind Chicago in the East, though the difference between the two teams in negligible. The Dream has made up a lot of ground lately, especially with two wins against the Storm that dropped Seattle’s point differential.

In case you were curious, the Lynx’s differential is better right now (+8.6) than the Storm’s was in 2010 (+7.9), though that dropped significantly late in the season when Brian Agler rested starters. It was +9.9 through the team’s first 29 games.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .766    6.5
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .715    6.4
Penny Taylor        PHO   .724    5.3
Becky Hammon        SAS   .687    4.8
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .643    4.4
Sue Bird            SEA   .638    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .649    4.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .649    3.9
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .610    3.8
Katie Douglas       IND   .654    3.8

The same 10 players, though in a slightly different order. Sue Bird has slumped a bit recently, while Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen have surged.

In 30th place with 1.8 WARP, still tops on the Sparks, is Parker – who has been out since June 26. As she prepares to return, I wanted to take a look at how much different Los Angeles has been with her in the lineup. I adjusted the scores in each Sparks game for the quality of the opposition (based on season-long differential, for better or worse) and location.

Doing so shows that Los Angeles was 5.2 points per game better than average with Parker, which is more impressive than the 4-3 Sparks record would indicate. All seven of those games were against teams with above-.500 records and L.A. scored impressive blowouts of Phoenix and the Storm with Parker, as well as one of just five defeats the Lynx have suffered all season. A +5.2 differential would put the Sparks even with Indiana as the league’s second-best team.

Without Parker, Los Angeles has been about as bad as you’d assume. Their -6.7 differential is improved slightly by playing nine out of 15 games on the road, but the Sparks have still been 5.7 points per game worse than average since Parker’s injury.

The interesting part of this exercise is looking at L.A.’s remaining schedule. Because it’s home-friendly, an average team would go 7-5 the rest of the way. If the Sparks can get to +5.2 points per game – which might not be possible with Parker working her way back to 100 percent – we’d expect them to go around 9-3 in their last 12 games. That would require the Storm to go 6-4 the rest of the way to finish with a better record and guarantee a playoff spot.

Posted in WNBA, stats | Comments Off

Storm Enters Stretch Run

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Ten games separate the Seattle Storm from the end of the 2011 regular season, but much of the Storm’s story is yet to be written. Most likely, the Storm won’t catch the Minnesota Lynx for first place in the Western Conference, which the Lynx now lead by five games. And the Storm is already assured of a better record than the 1-22 Tulsa Shock. Everything else is up for grabs over the next 10 games.

The Storm still has a shot to claim home-court advantage in the West, since just a half a game separates Seattle from the Phoenix Mercury and San Antonio Silver Stars, who are tied for second place. However, the Storm is not assured a playoff spot. The fifth-place Los Angeles Sparks, three games back overall and just two behind in the loss column, expect to get superstar Candace Parker back in the lineup Tuesday when they host the Atlanta Dream.

With that in mind, each of the Storm’s last 10 games is crucial, especially after a disappointing blowout loss to the Dream at KeyArena on Saturday night. That starts with Tuesday’s visit to Phoenix to face the rival Mercury (7:00 p.m., 1090 AM, Live Access).

“Every game definitely has importance – especially a game like tomorrow, when we’re competing against a team that’s right there with us trying to make the Western Conference Playoffs,” said Sue Bird. “I think it’s something we don’t even talk about because we all know it. It’s unspoken.”

The situation led Storm Head Coach Brian Agler to divert slightly from his usual laser focus on the Storm’s upcoming matchup and point out to the team where things stand going into the final 10 games.

“I don’t think you can help from doing that because it’s about being in the playoffs, putting ourselves in the best position possible,” he explained. “Obviously, other teams can affect that. You do at times have to look at the big picture, but our direct focus is just day to day and trying to get better, taking each game at a time.”

For the Storm, this week represents a rare opportunity to get better on the practice floor. Saturday’s game concluded a nine-day stretch where the Storm played every other day – traveling on three of the four “off” days. Agler was able to give the team a true day off on Sunday and go through an intense practice on Monday before flying to Phoenix in the afternoon. Following Tuesday’s game, the Storm will have three days off before hosting the New York Liberty on Saturday ().

“It gives us a chance to practice,” Agler said. “We need a lot of practice right now.  I think we’ve just got to start paying attention to detail better.”

There’s also a physical benefit as the Storm heads into a stretch of seven games in 15 days.

“Any time you can steal some rest in this league, it’s a positive thing,” said Bird. “It gets people off their feet. It gets people rested and ready to go for whenever that next game may be, so of course that’s a good thing.”

As the Storm heads into the closing stretch of the regular season, the team can draw on recent experience to see the value of finishing strong. Two years ago, the Storm brought an identical 13-11 record into the last 10 games. By going 7-3 over that span, the Storm reached 20 wins and secured home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. This year’s team would love to do the same.

Posted in practice notes | Comments Off

Around the Web: Sue Bird Tributes

Monday, August 15th, 2011

We were so busy last week creating Sue Bird content that we didn’t have much of a chance to highlight the other work out there around the Internet from a variety of sources.

ESPN.com’s Mechelle Voepel wrote a great tribute to Bird’s decade in Seattle and the way she’s become at home in the city.

So Bird has been an integral part of women’s basketball’s growth on both coasts.

“I actually never thought of it that way, but I guess I am proud of that,” Bird said. “When people ask me where I’m from, I always say New York. And I’m proud of that. But when it comes to where I live now, and where my home is, it’s Seattle. So I do represent both.

“I’m at ease when I’m in Seattle, and I feel the same way in New York. I always joke that my perfect world would be to somehow move Seattle to the East Coast, or uproot my friends and family and move them to Seattle.”

In the Seattle Times, Steve Kelley focused more on Bird’s legacy with the Storm and in Seattle.

For a decade now, Bird has been the Seattle Storm’s decision-maker. And no matter whom the Storm coach was, there hasn’t been a more secure feeling than seeing Bird with the basketball in her hands.

In a city that has been spoiled by a line of remarkable point guards from Lenny Wilkens to Gus Williams, Nate McMillan to Gary Payton, Bird belongs on the list.

Earlier in the week, Bird’s latest “Dishin’ It” feature in the Times saw her cover a number of different topics with Jon Fisch, from her music taste to her contract status.

Q. Are you going to sign a long-term deal like she did?

Bird: Possibly. It’s something that Brian (Agler) brought up a couple days ago. It’s something I need to talk about to my agent and the ownership and things like that.

Q. Do you want to wait until the end of the season, or while it’s still going on?

Bird: There are some rules where it benefits everybody if I sign during the season. If I wait, then I become an unrestricted free agent and then … there are all these rules! Too many! Assuming Seattle is the place I want to be, she says with an eye roll, it would benefit everybody for me to sign within the season. So I don’t know why that wouldn’t happen.

Our friends at King5 did a two-part series on Bird’s career with the Storm.

Also check out a video compiled of our list of Bird’s top 10 shots:

Bird is not the only Storm star in her 10th WNBA season. Jayda Evans looked at how Swin Cash has left a mark on both Detroit and Seattle during her career.

Cash was drafted behind Bird in the one of the best classes in WNBA history (2002). Today, her impact is clear.

“Any time you can be one place for a really long time, it’s special,” said Cash, a back-to-back All-Star Game MVP. “I don’t feel any less as far as it being my 10th year in the league. I appreciate my four years here and the other six that were in Detroit.”

This morning, the Times wrote about Sunday’s Wheaties signing at the Uptown QFC, for which fans lined up hours ahead of time.

“We’re Storm crazy,” said her aunt Marki Schillinger. While waiting, Sarah Lauer, of Bothell, and Rick Sakoda, of Seattle, talked about the first game they attended and when they bought their season tickets.

By the time they’d gotten through the line with their signed boxes — donated by QFC to promote the team and the community — they’d exchanged seat numbers and promises to look for each other.

“You can’t overstate how awesome the team and the fans are,” Sakoda said. “It’s like a party wrapped around a game.”

Posted in bird, in the media | Comments Off

How Sue Helped Me Fall for the WNBA

Thursday, August 11th, 2011

Even more so than last year’s celebration of Lauren Jackson, this year’s tribute to 10 seasons of Sue Bird has a personal meaning for me. You see, it’s also my 10th season. Not working for the Storm – that will be next year, and I’m counting on a bobblehead night. During 2002, however, I got my introduction to the Storm and the WNBA working to track defensive statistics for a project run by basketball analyst Dean Oliver, now of ESPN fame. I was credentialed for every game.

Jeff Reinking/NBAE/Getty Images

Jeff Reinking/NBAE/Getty Images

When I arrived for opening night, it was both the first time I’d ever been a member of the press (sort of) and my first WNBA game. I had never even seen Sue play on television, though obviously she needed no introduction by that point. Watching her in person figured to be one of the highlights of the season.

It took two games for Sue in particular and the WNBA in general to win me over. After a lackluster opening loss to the New York Liberty, the Storm went on the road to beat Portland before returning home to host the Minnesota Lynx. In many ways, the game was a preview of things to come. The Storm trailed by eight with eight minutes left before Bird lifted the team on her back and led the comeback.

The Storm would force overtime on two Kamila Vodichkova free throws in the closing seconds, and the extra session belonged to the home team, which outscored the Lynx by 10 points in OT. Bird scored eight of her 27 points in overtime and 21 in the second half. When the Storm won again two nights later, knocking off the defending Eastern Conference champs (the Charlotte Sting) behind 17 points and seven assists from Bird, I was hooked.

We all know how great Bird is now, but what might be hard to remember was how revolutionary she was in 2002. Back then, WNBA point guards were expected to pass first and shoot only when necessary. Dawn Staley (8.7 ppg), Jennifer Azzi (9.6 ppg) and Ticha Penicheiro (8.5 ppg) were the archetypes for the position. What Bird showed, and players like Lindsay Whalen have reinforced, is that it’s possible for a WNBA point guard to be a dangerous scoring threat without shirking playmaking responsibilities in the slightest.

I love watching Bird play now, when she’s seen it all and is in complete command of the game, but there was also a lot to be said for her more attacking style as a rookie. On a team lacking in offensive options, Bird carried a heavy load. She and Lauren Jackson quickly mastered their pick-and-roll pairing, and Bird has always had a knack for big shots in crucial situations. Her 33-point game against the Portland Fire to help the Storm to the first playoff berth in franchise history was maybe my favorite performance.

The other thing that stands out for me, looking back at 2002, was the way Sue and the Storm captured the city’s attention. Early in the season, the team played in front of sparse crowds that did not provide the home court advantage we’ve come to associate with KeyArena. By about midseason, things started to click attendance-wise. For the last two home games – the showdown with Portland and the win over the Utah Starzz that clinched the playoffs – enough fans turned out to open the upper bowl. They liked what they saw and stuck around.

And so did I.

Posted in bird | Comments Off

Stormin’ Every Continent

Wednesday, August 10th, 2011

There are Storm fans everywhere throughout the occupied world, but recently the Storm extended its presence to Antarctica. Thanks to Season Ticket Holder Derek Bryant, a Storm flag made its way to Pegasus White Ice Runway as part of Operation Deep Freeze. Check it out!

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Sue Does it Again

Friday, August 5th, 2011
Birds three in flight. (Neil Enns/Storm Photos)

Bird's three in flight. (Neil Enns/Storm Photos)

Was there ever any doubt? Not from Swin Cash, who put it simply, saying, “In Sue we trust.” With the Storm on the brink of defeat after a putback by Tina Charles, Sue Bird saved the day with her game-winning three-pointer with less than a second remaining Friday against the Connecticut Sun. It’s just another game-winning shot for Bird, who has made a habit of them, especially at KeyArena. After missing a pull-up jumper in the final minute, Bird was motivated to make the big play with the game on the line. That’s exactly what she did.

Posted in bird | 7 Comments »

Lynx Dominate Advanced Stats

Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011

A little late due to the busy week, here are the updated WNBA advanced stats. They serve as a testament to the performance of the Minnesota Lynx, who have emerged as the league’s top team with a seven-game winning streak. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       110.6     Minnesota      96.0
Minnesota     108.1     Seattle        97.2
New York      105.2     Indiana        97.3
Indiana       104.9     Chicago        97.5
Los Angeles   104.1     San Antonio   100.2
San Antonio   103.5     Connecticut   100.3
LEAGUE        101.6     New York      100.5
Connecticut   101.2     Atlanta       101.4
Seattle        99.1     LEAGUE        101.6
Chicago        98.0     Phoenix       105.9
Washington     97.5     Washington    106.6
Atlanta        97.0     Tulsa         108.5
Tulsa          89.2     Los Angeles   108.8

Minnesota is back on top in Defensive Rating and a strong No. 2 in Offensive Rating, having cut the gap with Phoenix in half over the last week. The league’s other most balanced team right now is the East-leading Indiana Fever, which also sits in the top four at both ends of the floor.

The Storm is moving up the Offensive Rating leaderboard. Currently, Seattle is in ninth place, the best the team has been since the early part of the season. The Defensive Rating standings are bizarre. At the top, there are four elite defenses. Then there is a group of four teams that have been better than average and all have allowed a similar number of points per 100 possessions. After them, there’s a big gap down to the four teams that have struggled at the defensive end. A blowout loss in Indiana sent the Sparks tumbling to the bottom of the rankings. So far, Joe Bryant has been unable to turn things around at the defensive end of the floor.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .800     Indiana        .668
Phoenix        .613     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .613     New York       .569
Seattle        .554     Chicago        .480
Los Angeles    .355     Atlanta        .424
Tulsa          .017     Washington     .304

In both conferences, one top team has emerged, with the next couple virtually indistinguishable in terms of point differential. Adjusting for schedule and recent play, however, tells a different story. The most recent Hollinger Power Rankings have the Storm all the way up to fourth in the WNBA, ahead of San Antonio.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .733    5.0
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .685    4.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .714    4.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .664    3.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .680    3.6
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .632    3.5
Katie Douglas       IND   .664    3.2
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .632    3.1
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .607    2.9
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .636    2.8

A couple of familiar names are surging up the rankings. One is Diana Taurasi, who has added a full win over replacement to her total since we last updated. Lindsay Whalen makes her first appearance in the top 10 after her excellent month of July. Angel McCoughtry still sits in 14th after a slow start to the season, but with another week like her last two, she’ll soon appear in the leaderboard.

Posted in WNBA, stats | Comments Off

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »