Archive for September, 2011

Around the Web: Game Day

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

The WNBA Playoffs tip off tonight at KeyArena, which means tons of great coverage. Let’s get to it.

If you read just one thing today, make it Meri-Jo Borzilleri’s look at Storm fans and the KeyArena experience for ESPNW.com.

The team has built one of the most passionate fan bases in the WNBA, one that is credited by players with helping them win two league titles.

“This place is magical,” Storm forward Camille Little said of KeyArena.

The Storm, 15-2 at home this season and undefeated there last year (21-0, including playoffs), begin defense of their 2010 WNBA championship Thursday against Phoenix.

The rivalry between the Mercury and the Storm has favored the Storm lately, notes Percy Allen of the Seattle Times.

Seattle (2010) and Phoenix (2007 and ‘09) have combined to win three of the past four WNBA titles.

“They’ve been an awesome team for the last five, six years,” Cash said. “We just really enjoy playing them, and I’m sure they say the same about us.”

Maybe not.

In the Everett Herald, Aaron Lommers looks at the Storm’s shooting guards, Katie Smith and Tanisha Wright.

“The identity of our team, I think really, T is also that,” Bird said. “She kind of breeds that. The way she plays the game offensively and defensively, particularly defensively, she really sets the tone for us.”

Lommers also explains his picks for the WNBA awards, including Ashley Robinson for Most Improved.

Storm coach Brian Agler predicted on the opening night of the season that Robinson would win the most-improved award and she gave him no reason to back down from that forecast. Her numbers might not be that impressive, but anyone who watched the Storm last season knows Robinson made huge strides. There was not a player in the league who’s improvement startled me as much as Robinson’s.

The Associated Press also considers the familiarity between the two opponents.

Sue Bird isn’t afraid of leaking any strategic secrets the Seattle Storm might employ when opening defense of its WNBA title tonight at KeyArena against the Phoenix Mercury.

As the All-Star point guard sees it, there are simply no secrets remaining to leak in a rivalry that has become as fierce as any in the league.

On the other side, the Arizona Republic asks how the Mercury can solve the Storm.

Taurasi: “We still have to try to control the game with our pace. When you’re on the road, it’s always a little bit harder for some reason. There are a little bit more whistles, especially there (at Key Arena). I think we’ve proven we can play fast in the playoffs, fast in the finals, fast in a game 5 of a championship series. That’s the only way we know how to play.

“What’s so tough is they switch everything. So they take away the interior pretty well. We have to find a way to get easy baskets in transition.”

PhoenixMercury.com has video, including Penny Taylor after yesterday’s practice.

Around the Web: One Day Away

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

On the eve of the Storm and the Phoenix Mercury tipping off their playoff series, here’s what they’re saying.

The latest “Dishin’ it” with Sue Bird in the Seattle Times gets Bird’s take on the favorite going into the playoffs, naptime and more.

Q. What’s your biggest fear?

Bird: I’m not a real big fan of sharks. I don’t really go too deep. It’s one thing when you’re in a lake, swimming out is no problem. I love water skiing, even though I haven’t done that in like 10 years because we can’t — it’s in our contract. But when it comes to the ocean, I never liked to go out far where I couldn’t touch.

There’s something about sharks that freaks me out. I do NOT watch Shark Week.

Also in the Times, Percy Allen takes a look at Lauren Jackson’s health.

When asked if she has recovered from the hip surgery that stole most of her season, Lauren Jackson chuckled.

“Definitely I’m not 100 percent yet,” she said. “But I’m getting there. That’s the main thing.”

In his inimitable style, richyyy looks at the matchup between the Storm and the Mercury on WNBAlien.

While they ended up right next to each other in the standings, these teams are an exhibition in contrasts. The league’s slowest-paced team (and Seattle took it by a mile this year) faces its second-fastest (Atlanta once again finished just ahead of Phoenix in possessions per game). Seattle’s #1-ranked defense faces Phoenix’s #1 offense (it’s #9 offense vs. #10 defense at the other end, but that doesn’t sound nearly as impressive).

On ESPN.com, Michelle Smith has a video preview of the Storm and the Mercury.

SwishAppeal’s Nate Parham finishes up his look at WNBA awards by picking unconventional All-Defensive Teams that include two Storm players with two more as honorable mention.

Essence Carson vs. Tanisha Wright: Wright and Carson epitomize what makes defensive awards so difficult – both had huge defensive games for their teams on more than one occasion that can’t be ignored, but don’t necessarily have numbers to support the effort. So how then do we choose Wright over Carson? I edited this out of our initial discussion, I initially had Carson on my first team and then switched it 10 minutes late simply because if defense is an every play thing Wright playing more minutes matters. That’s not a strike against Carson, but has to be taken into consideration that Wright is usually assigned the top opposing perimeter player for a longer period of time.

The Associated Press writes about Ashley Robinson’s fine performance as a starter this season.

While some might have thought the Storm would falter during yet another injury-related absence for Jackson, Robinson helped them go 6-6 during those 12 games by averaging 5 points, 5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. That included her first career double-double — 14 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-69 loss at Chicago in her first start of those 12 games.

“I’m no Lauren, so I just do what I do,” Robinson said. “I’m tall and I’m athletic, so I rebound, run the floor, play good ‘D’ and try to finish my easy shots. It was simple, just go do my job.”

On the other side, Odeen Domingo writes about the importance of the Mercury using all its weapons in the Arizona Republic.

The Mercury seemed to have that in the first half of the season. They had seven games where three or more players scored at least 15 points each and were just a half-game out of first place in the West at the All-Star Break. But after the break, the Mercury had just four of those games.

“That’s what we’re hoping for more in the playoffs,” Mercury President and General Manager Ann Meyers Drysdale said. “The shots are there. I think the offense is run very well. We still led the league in assists. The offense is doing what it’s supposed to do. They’re executing. Now they just have to finish. Players on this team have had open looks. We can score. These players are capable of doing it.”

Around the Web: Playoff Previews Begin

Tuesday, September 13th, 2011

With Game 1 of the Storm-Mercury series just two days away, playoff previews are beginning to roll in. Here’s all the great content on the web today.

On ESPNW, Michelle Smith writes about a mature Lauren Jackson, using the perspective of teammate and friend Sue Bird.

Jackson is back in class after her injury derailed her studies temporarily.

“We’ll be in the locker room and people will have their headphones on and she’s at her locker with a notebook and a highlighter,” Bird said. “She will talk to you in-depth about women’s rights and Lady Gaga.”

A variety of analysts weigh in on ESPN’s series preview, including Rebecca Lobo on the key to the series.

Game 1 will be huge in this series. Seattle has the best home-court advantage in the WNBA and the Mercury haven’t won in Seattle since September 2009. I think they could steal one at Key Arena in the first game of the series, but it’ll be much more difficult to win a Game 3 in front of the Storm crazies.

Looking at the other side on ESPN, Mechelle Voepel has a fun story on the oft-overlooked Penny Taylor.

Of course, Taurasi is the big-personality player, the 2009 WNBA MVP, one of the primary faces of the league and women’s basketball in general. Taylor’s fans — of which there are many — will insist that the Aussie never gets enough credit. It’s not that those folks aren’t generally quite fond of Taurasi, too. Just that they’re convinced that the limelight is magnetically drawn to Taurasi in a way it isn’t to Taylor.

Voepel notes that this year’s postseason has more of a wide-open feel than last year’s Storm run to the championship.

“This year has the feeling of being more wide-open in both conferences,” said Connecticut coach Mike Thibault, whose Sun are back in the postseason after a two-year absence. “I think every playoff series is going to be crazy. You could be the first-place team and be done early because the fourth-place team in both conferences is really good.”

WNBA.com also previews the series:

While Jackson has yet to dominate as she has in the past since her return, her presence on the floor must be accounted for and makes life easier for Bird, Cash and the rest of the Storm. Will a healthy Jackson be the key to continue Seattle’s reign over Phoenix? Or can the Mercury rise up and find a way to defeat their nemesis when it matters most?

WNBA.com’s top 10 plays of the 2011 regular season prominently feature Bird.

In the Everett Herald, Aaron Lommers makes his picks for the postseason.

At SwishAppeal, they’re still reviewing the season with awards picks. Nate Parham puts Bird on his All-WNBA First Team.

There are guards in the league who have put up gaudier statistics and Bird has been more of a scorer than normal with a team-high 14.7 points per game, but arguably no guard has done more to win games for their team than Bird. That doesn’t necessarily make her the frontrunner for the MVP, but it takes a special player to carry her team as a distributor and scorer as often as Bird has.

A variety of Storm players also factor into Parham’s discussion of All-Defensive candidates with Richard Cohen.

What about Camille Little? Another defender I’ve loved over the years for her versatility, even as a rookie she took the toughest assignments whenever she was on the floor in San Antonio and guarded everyone from guards to centers. These days she’s almost exclusively on posts, but she’s still impressive.

Final 2011 WNBA Advanced Stats

Monday, September 12th, 2011

The 2011 regular season is in the books, and while much of this year’s WNBA story remains to be written, we can finalize regular-season statistics for players and teams.

Right now, I’m just going to post some player stats on the off chance any last-minute award voters are interested. I’ll edit in team stats later in the day.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .714    8.7
Tamika Catchings    IND   .745    8.5
Penny Taylor        PHO   .736    6.9
Angel McCoughtry    ATL   .702    6.5
Sue Bird            SEA   .650    6.5
Becky Hammon        SAS   .658    6.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .677    6.3
Tina Charles        CON   .633    6.1
Maya Moore          MIN   .673    6.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .646    5.4

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Renee Montgomery    CON   .630    5.3
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .595    5.1
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .656    5.1
Katie Douglas       IND   .634    5.1
Candace Parker      LAS   .745    4.5
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .580    4.1
Seimone Augustus    MIN   .576    3.9
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .550    3.5
Kara Lawson         CON   .587    3.5
Rebekkah Brunson    MIN   .561    3.4

Fowles took advantage of Catchings sitting out yesterday’s game to win the WARP title for 2011 season. Statistically, both players stood far above their peers.

ROOKIE WARP

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Maya Moore          MIN   .673    6.1
Danielle Adams      SAS   .640    2.7
Elizabeth Cambage   TUL   .557    2.3
Jeanette Pohlen     IND   .521    1.7
Danielle Robinson   SAS   .457    0.8
Jenna O'Hea         LAS   .444    0.3
Kayla Pedersen      TUL   .431    0.3

Moore is going to win; WARP just makes it look a lot more legitimate than it seemed at midseason, when Adams was outplaying her. Even without Adams’ injury, Moore’s strong second half would have pushed her ahead.

SIXTH WOMAN WARP

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
DeWanna Bonner      PHO   .656    5.1
Kara Lawson         CoN   .587    3.5
Jia Perkins         SAS   .564    3.1
Jessica Davenport   IND   .587    3.0
Essence Carson      NYL   .577    2.9
Danielle Adams      SAS   .640    2.7

An unusually strong field of reserves, thanks in no small part to the San Antonio Silver Stars, but this remains Bonner’s award to lose until she becomes a starter in Phoenix.

Around the Web: Game Day

Friday, September 9th, 2011

In the Seattle Times, Percy Allen writes about the Storm being in position to finish the regular season strong despite playing much of it without the MVP.

During her absence, the Storm went 10-10, thanks in large part to All-Stars Swin Cash and Sue Bird, who is having an MVP-caliber season.

“We struggled some, (but) we’re still in a pretty good position,” Little said. “To be second right now and have to play half of the season without Lauren, what more can you ask for?”

Nate Parham has been working overtime to cover tonight’s game. At SwishAppeal, he looks at key players for the two teams.

Tanisha Wright, SG, Seattle Storm: In the Storm’s one loss to the Mercury since 2009, Wright was absent. One thing Wright brings the Storm is a secondary ball handler next to point guard Sue Bird or the primary ball handler next to Katie Smith. Her ability to turn in an efficient performance goes a long way to cutting down turnovers.

On SB Nation Seattle, Parham weighs the significance of whether Penny Taylor plays tonight (all indications are she will):

The Mercury set up this scenario with a 91-76 win in Phoenix over the Tulsa Shock last night with forward Penny Taylor sitting out due to ongoing bouts with back spasms. As she is day-to-day, whether Taylor is able to play could have a significant impact on the outcome of the game: she is among the most versatile small forwards in the league and has put up MVP-caliber numbers this season.

The upside from the perspective of Mercury players, as shared in the Arizona Republic today by Odeen Domingo, is the chance to control their own destiny.

“It’s a good feeling to have,” guard Diana Taurasi said. “I’ve been in the playoff hunt where you have to rely on other teams to win or lose. When you do that, you feel helpless. But we’re in a position where we decide our fate, which is real nice.”

Forgot to link this one yesterday. Former Storm guard Alison Lacey told the Canberra Times yesterday that she plans to give up professional basketball after a year apiece in the WNBA and the WNBL.

”I wasn’t as passionate as I thought I should be to be a professional athlete,” Lacey said.

”I don’t want to waste my time, my teammates or my coach’s time if it’s not my main priority.

Lastly, while this isn’t a game-related story, it’s a must read. On Forbes.com, Alana Glass profiles Force 10 Hoops, the Storm’s ownership group.

When I first met Trudeau, former Microsoft executive and current nonprofit executive, Gilder, former Olympian and current investment CEO, and Brummel, former collegiate athlete and current Microsoft executive, my first impression was that these owners are true sports fans in every sense. They didn’t soak up the limelight, and they were extremely humble and approachable. And if you didn’t know that they are owners, you would think that they are just one of the loyal fans.

In fact, Gilder and Brummel both acknowledge that they have owner’s seats on the floor, but when they bought the team neither one of them changed their season tickets. Gilder said, “I’m in row 14 section 128 because I want to be with my community and I don’t want to give that up.”

After I sat down with these accomplished entrepreneurs, who are also the defending 2010 WNBA Champions, I learned that my impressions were true. I also discovered that they are smart and savvy businesswomen who like taking on hard problems, creating startups, and spend the bulk of their time focusing on what they are going to do to make tomorrow better for everyone.

Home Court on the Line Friday

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

There’s no question what’s at stake Friday when the Phoenix Mercury visits KeyArena (7:00 p.m., KONG 6/16, 1090 AM, TIX). Should the Mercury beat the Tulsa Shock tonight, the teams will go into Friday’s game knowing they will play each other in the first round of the playoffs – but not whether the series will open in Phoenix or Seattle. A Storm win would secure home court advantage in the matchup, while the Mercury winning on the road would put Phoenix a win away from hosting the series.

Camille Little and the Storm hope to win the season series with Phoenix and claim home court. (Barry Gossage/NBAE/Getty Images)

Camille Little and the Storm hope to win the season series with Phoenix and claim home court. (Barry Gossage/NBAE/Getty Images)

“It’s the deciding game for home court advantage,” said forward Camille Little. “I think it gets us over the hump with our series with them. [The Storm has won two of the three matchups thus far.] That’s important to most people. It’s important to us.

“Every game is important, but this really has some significance. We’ll go into it like any other game, but we want to make sure we have a good outcome.”

Don’t expect any rah-rah speeches from Storm Head Coach Brian Agler before tomorrow’s game. With a veteran team that understands the value of home court advantage, motivation should not be an issue.

“Our players don’t need a lot of pep talks and things like that,” said Agler. “They know what’s at stake. They’re great competitors and they’re hungry right now. Our job is to get them prepared and try to get them to game night healthy.”

To that end, the Storm had a light week of practice. After sweeping a back-to-back set on the road over the weekend, players had three days off to rest up for the final weekend of the regular season and the playoffs.

“We’re fresh, mentally and physically,” Agler explained. “It’s a catch-22. You don’t know how much time to give them off this late in the season because you don’t want to lose rhythm. I think we’re OK that way. We’ve had a couple of good days of practice. We’ll get ready to go tomorrow.”

CASH HONORED BY WNBA CARES

The league announced Thursday that Storm forward Swin Cash won the WNBA Cares Community Assist Award for the month of August. Cash credited everyone that helped her host two Cash for Kids events in the Seattle area last month as the reason she was recognized.

“I’m really happy for the kids that will benefit from this,” said Cash. “It’s an honor to win the award and be recognized, but I wouldn’t be able to receive this award without having a great team around me. My staff at Cash for Kids, the Storm organization, my Storm teammates, all of the fans and volunteers from the Boys & Girls Club really made August a success. I attribute this award to everyone that contributed.”

Cash for Kids will receive a $5,000 donation from the WNBA, which will go back to the young people that Cash’s charity serves.

“It means a lot because every dollar we put back into the community,” Cash explained. “Right now, we don’t have a lot of overhead. The money with the Storm Crazy T-shirt sales, all of that will be going back into the Seattle community and also to the McKeesport/Pittsburgh community. So knowing that kids are going to be helped in two different places is really great for us.”

Around the Web: Catching Up

Thursday, September 8th, 2011

What has been a quiet week as the Storm took time off with five days between games is about to heat up. First, we could get some clarity on the playoff picture tonight. If the Phoenix Mercury beat the Tulsa Shock at home, we will know that the Storm and the Mercury will be the second and third seeds and play each other in the first round of the playoffs, leaving only which team would have home court advantage to be determined on Friday. Phoenix is still unsure about the availability tonight of All-Star forward Penny Taylor.

Penny Taylor had missed two of the past three games because of a back strain. She played in the Mercury’s last game vs. Los Angeles on Saturday but aggravated the injury early in the third quarter and did not return. Taylor practiced on Wednesday and said she is continuing to receive treatment and could be ready to play when the Mercury host the Tulsa Shock at US Airways Center. “If everything goes well and if I take good care of it from here until (tonight),” Taylor said. “Depending on warming up before the game . . . it’s feeling really good and getting better every day.”

The awards race is heating up going into the final weekend of the regular season. On Slamonline.com, Ben York makes the case for Sue Bird as the WNBA’s MVP.

With Lauren Jackson hurt for over half the season, did anyone expect the Seattle Storm to potentially win 20 games? Or, finish second place in a hugely competitive Western Conference?

Bird does so much more for the Storm than simply facilitate their offense. She’s someone the team looks to in clutch situations, someone who generates offense both for herself and her teammates, and a player that they can rally around. Intangibles like these (including a unified belief in Bird as the Storm’s leader) goes an incredibly long way towards a team’s success.

Congrats are in order for Seattle Times Storm beat writer Jayda Evans, who will be taking the next couple of weeks off to get married.

Washington men’s basketball reporter Percy Allen will pick up the beat next week when Seattle (17-13) returns home for its final games against Phoenix (Sept. 9) and Chicago (Sept. 11).

If the Storm advances, I’ll be back for the Western Conference finals and definitely the start of the new Pac-12 and WCC women’s basketball seasons. But be sure to check back for the latest Storm news from Percy.

Playoff Picture: Sept. 4

Sunday, September 4th, 2011

After two big games Saturday night, the Western Conference Playoff picture is taking shape. Let’s look at where we stand currently, with the Storm still a half-game ahead of the Phoenix Mercury for second place in the West and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   7   -    1/2
Seattle        19  13  5.5   2/0
Phoenix        18  13  6.0   2/1
San Antonio    15  16  9.0   1/2
Los Angeles    13  18 11.0   3/0

More telling are the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     25.9  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Seattle       20.1   .00   .64   .36   .00   .00
Phoenix       20.0   .00   .36   .64   .00   .00
San Antonio   17.2   .00   .00   .00   .93   .06
Los Angeles   14.9   .00   .00   .00   .07   .93
Tulsa          3.3   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

So the obvious note here is that the Storm and the Mercury are now locked into second and third per our simulation. There is a scenario where Phoenix could slip to fourth by losing out with the San Antonio Silver Stars winning out, but our model regards this as impossible because the Mercury’s home game against Tulsa is statistically such a sure thing.

The Storm will definitely finish either second or third and has the inside track on second. A win next Friday against Phoenix would lock it up.

Los Angeles is still alive for fourth. The Sparks will need to beat San Antonio in L.A. on Tuesday and then get some help. The Sparks have a legitimate chance, but it’s going to be tough to make up two games with three to play.

The likely Storm scenarios:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 64%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 36%

Playoff Picture: Sept. 3

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

This much we know: The Storm is in the playoffs. Where the team will finish and who will line up on the other side when the WNBA Playoffs start Sept. 15 is still unclear.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   7   -    1/2
Seattle        18  13  6.0   2/1
Phoenix        17  13  6.5   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  8.5   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 10.5   3/1

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       21.6   .83   .12   .03   .01   .00
Connecticut   20.7   .14   .68   .10   .08   .00
New York      19.4   .02   .15   .67   .16   .00
Atlanta       18.9   .02   .07   .19   .72   .00
Chicago       15.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     25.9  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .44   .46   .11   .00
Seattle       19.5   .00   .56   .40   .04   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .14   .79   .06
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .06   .94
Tulsa          3.3   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Indiana’s three-game losing streak has thrown the Eastern Conference into significant chaos. Any finish of the top four teams in the East is possible with them separated by just 2.5 games. Despite winning a blowout, Atlanta was the loser, as New York’s surprising victory in Minnesota solidified the Liberty’s chances of a top-three seed.

In the West, it’s today’s matchups – the Storm at San Antonio and Phoenix at Los Angeles – that are likely to be telling. Today’s win did bump up the Storm’s chances of finishing second in the West. With a win tonight, the Storm can essentially ensure finishing no worse than third. I haven’t played out all the scenarios, but I don’t see one where the Silver Stars could finish ahead of the Storm without winning tonight.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 45%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 40%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 11%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 4%

Playoff Picture: Sept. 2

Friday, September 2nd, 2011

Just two games in the WNBA last night, but both had playoff implications. In the East, Atlanta’s run was stopped by Washington as the Dream badly missed Erika De Souza. Out West, San Antonio blew past Phoenix to get back in the mix for one of the top three spots in the conference.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   6   -    2/2
Seattle        17  13  7.0   2/2
Phoenix        17  13  7.0   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  9.0   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 11.0   3/1

The Storm currently would be the second seed by virtue of winning the tie with the Mercury. Last night’s Phoenix loss was also important because it gives the Storm some margin for error. As long as the Storm wins next Friday’s matchup with the Mercury, the team can afford to lose another game along the way and finish second no matter what.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.2   .92   .06   .02   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.3   .07   .73   .13   .08   .00
Atlanta       18.6   .01   .12   .36   .51   .00
New York      18.4   .00   .11   .50   .39   .00
Chicago       15.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.8   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.8  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .52   .38   .10   .00
Seattle       19.2   .00   .47   .44   .09   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .19   .75   .05
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .05   .95
Tulsa          3.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Atlanta’s loss didn’t really open the door for Chicago. The Sky made the playoffs in precisely one of the 500 simulations (and what a fascinating finish that must have been). The Dream is now most likely to finish fourth because New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. That shouldn’t thrill the Fever, though Atlanta is clearly a different team without De Souza.

In the West, San Antonio’s win helped and hurt the Storm. The upside is that the Storm is now much more likely to finish in second place in the conference. The downside is that there’s now a realistic chance the Storm finishes fourth and has to play Minnesota in the opening round. Phoenix has a higher chance of being fourth because the Silver Stars earned the tiebreaker against the Mercury, while the Storm would win a tie with San Antonio (as well as, by about any scenario I can envision, a three-team tie). We’ll know a little more after tonight and a lot more once the Storm has faced the Silver Stars on Saturday in a crucial game.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(3) at Phoenix (2): 43%
(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 37%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 10%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 9%