For the first time all year – and certainly not the last – it’s time to turn our attention to WNBA advanced stats. As veteran StormTracker readers know, we’ll be going over these stats on a weekly basis (usually on Monday) throughout the regular season to offer a more accurate perspective on how teams and players are performing. For a primer on the statistics used here, check out our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle       105.5     Atlanta        87.9
Connecticut   102.2     Indiana        92.4
San Antonio   101.6     Washington     93.2
Atlanta        99.1     Connecticut    94.6
New York       98.5     Phoenix        95.6
Washington     98.4     San Antonio    95.8
AVERAGE        97.4     Seattle        96.8
Minnesota      96.0     Tulsa          96.8
Chicago        95.9     AVERAGE        97.4
Phoenix        95.1     Los Angeles   102.4
Tulsa          94.0     Minnesota     102.4
Indiana        92.3     Chicago       106.1
Los Angeles    91.5     New York      106.6

Would you believe that the best offensive team so far this season has been your Seattle Storm? The Storm has made up for inaccurate shooting (the team is 12th in effective field-goal percentage) by ranking in the league’s top three in all three of the other Four Factors, including the league’s lowest turnover rate on offense.

Of course, the most important caveat looking at these statistics is that it is incredibly early. Ridiculously early. Phoenix has played two games thus far, and something tells me the Mercury’s offense won’t be worse than its defense by season’s end. At the same time, the Storm’s Offensive Rating will probably slide a little, but that should be accompanied by an improvement at the defensive end. Besides simply sample size, schedules have yet to come anywhere close to evening out.

Some other notable numbers: New York has been all offense thus far, ranking fifth in Offensive Rating but dead last in the league in Defensive Rating. There’s a giant gulf between Tulsa, which ranks eighth in Defensive Rating but has been better than average, and the bottom four teams in the league, all of whom are giving up a ton of points.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .754     Atlanta        .773
San Antonio    .622     Washington     .658
Tulsa          .467     Connecticut    .642
Phoenix        .418     Indiana        .526
Minnesota      .335     New York       .260
Los Angeles    .260     Chicago        .253

As usual, this is expected winning percentage based on point differential. Usually, we’ll show expected wins, but since some teams have played two more games than others so far, we’ll look strictly at winning percentage for now. The Storm and Atlanta have paced the league, with the East far more impressive than the West in terms of differential so far. It’s early.

PACE

Team           Pace
-------------------
Tulsa          85.1
Phoenix        83.6
Atlanta        82.2
Minnesota      81.7
Los Angeles    81.2
San Antonio    79.6
Connecticut    77.7
Seattle        77.0
Washington     76.1
New York       76.1
Indiana        75.2
Chicago        73.2

I wanted to show this in large part to highlight just how fast Nolan Richardson has the Shock playing thus far. Tulsa is averaging 1.5 more possessions per 40 minutes than the Mercury. Beyond that, who has played whom makes a big difference right now. The Storm’s pace, for example, was much faster against Phoenix than in the team’s other two games.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Monique Currie      WAS   .819    1.2
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .797    1.0
Tamika Catchings    IND   .763    1.0
Angel McCoughtry    ATL   .756    1.0
Charde Houston      MIN   .716    0.9
Michelle Snow       SAS   .832    0.8
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .648    0.7
Shay Murphy         IND   .760    0.7
Tina Charles        CON   .722    0.7
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .624    0.7

Monique Currie is making an early case for Most Improved Player, shooting 50% from the field, better than 40% from three-point range and better than 90% at the free throw line. More on her in tomorrow’s Insider Preview as the Storm prepares to host the Mystics. Currie might have had a claim for Eastern Conference Player of the Week, but it’s hard to argue with the selections of Lauren Jackson and Angel McCoughtry. Give Michelle Snow a lot of the credit for San Antonio starting so well, and Tina Charles looks like an elite player within her first month in the WNBA. Still, it’s definitely early.

This entry was posted on Monday, May 24th, 2010 at 7:20 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.