One of the nice things about the WNBA All-Star break (technically, the Stars at the Sun break this season) is that it usually falls right about at the midpoint of the season. This year, teams have averaged about 18 games down of their 34-game schedules. That’s where the Storm currently stands. There is no better time than now to check in on the advanced numbers. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle       112.3     Indiana        92.0
Phoenix       109.7     Washington     96.4
Connecticut   103.0     Atlanta        98.0
Atlanta       102.6     Seattle        98.1
LEAGUE        101.7     Chicago        99.3
Washington    101.4     Connecticut   101.5
Indiana       101.4     LEAGUE        101.7
Chicago       101.1     New York      102.5
New York      101.1     Minnesota     104.0
San Antonio    98.4     San Antonio   105.2
Los Angeles    98.4     Tulsa         106.5
Minnesota      96.5     Los Angeles   106.7
Tulsa          93.3     Phoenix       109.6

The Storm and Mercury are actually widening their lead on the rest of the league in Offensive Rating. The difference between the two teams’ records thus far can be explained by the fact that the Storm ranks fourth in Defensive Rating, the Mercury last.

A couple of interesting trends. First, the Sun has really been struggling on defense during a three-game losing streak that has put Connecticut’s spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs in some jeopardy. The Sun dropped from fourth in the league in Defensive Rating, just behind the Storm, to sixth and far behind the league’s five best defenses.

While the Lynx offense continues to flounder, Minnesota has been clicking lately on defense, helping the Lynx solidify fourth place in the Western Conference.

PACE

Team           Pace
-------------------
Tulsa          84.0
Atlanta        84.0
Phoenix        83.8
Minnesota      79.2
Connecticut    79.0
LEAGUE         78.1
Los Angeles    77.3
San Antonio    75.9
Indiana        75.4
New York       75.2
Washington     75.0
Chicago        74.1
Seattle        73.3

At the break, we’ll add pace to the team statistics we consider. The Shock is barely edging out the Dream for the league’s fastest pace, with Phoenix an unfamiliar third. The Storm continues to play the league’s slowest basketball, though you wouldn’t know it from the team’s potent fast-break offense this season.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .842     Indiana        .711
Phoenix        .523     Washington     .658
Minnesota      .319     Atlanta        .622
San Antonio    .312     Connecticut    .546
Los Angeles    .293     Chicago        .507
Tulsa          .154     New York       .464

We’ve already discussed the two biggest changes here – Minnesota climbing in the West and Connecticut slipping in the East. It’s interesting to note that the Hollinger Power Rankings have a totally different pecking order in the East, with the Sun in last because of strength of schedule and the Sky up there with the conference’s elite teams. Both systems agree on the Fever being the class of the East, though Hollinger’s numbers actually have the Fever atop the league.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .817    5.4
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .767    5.4
Tamika Catchings    IND   .818    4.9
Tina Charles        CON   .681    3.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .673    3.5
Sue Bird            SEA   .679    3.4
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .645    3.3
Katie Douglas       IND   .671    3.1
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .630    3.0
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .640    3.0

Lauren Jackson sitting out Tuesday’s game allowed Sylvia Fowles to pull into a virtual tie for first place in the league in WARP. As you can see, Jackson has an advantage on a per-minute basis, but Fowles has played two extra games (one because of Jackson’s injury and one because Chicago has had an additional game on the schedule).

Jackson’s countrywoman Penny Taylor leaped all the way from 11th in our last update to fifth in the league. I’m surprised Taylor’s assist spree hasn’t gotten more attention. Doing more playmaking with Cappie Pondexter in New York, Taylor is a remarkable fifth in the league with 4.8 assists per game (she’s also in the top 10 in points and steals, free throws and three-point percentage, which is impressive stuff). We’re going to have to start calling her a point forward.

Speaking of Pondexter, she’s cracked the top 10 for the first time this season. Pondexter ranks fifth in the league in Offensive Rating, trailing Jackson, Taylor, Tamika Catchings and Diana Taurasi. Yes, three of the top five offensive players in the league by our numbers were teammates last year. So perhaps this Miami Heat trio isn’t completely unprecedented. …

This entry was posted on Monday, July 12th, 2010 at 7:24 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.