Trends continued to hold last week in the WNBA. The Indiana Fever looks like the best team in the East, and the Phoenix Mercury appears to be the strongest competition for the Seattle Storm in the West. What else did we see? Let’s take a look. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.
OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS
Team ORtg Team DRtg
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Phoenix 111.2 Indiana 92.6
Seattle 110.7 Washington 96.7
Connecticut 103.1 Seattle 97.4
Chicago 102.4 Chicago 99.4
Indiana 102.1 Atlanta 99.5
LEAGUE 101.9 New York 101.0
Atlanta 101.4 Connecticut 101.7
New York 101.3 LEAGUE 101.9
Washington 100.1 Minnesota 103.7
San Antonio 99.4 Los Angeles 105.3
Los Angeles 99.3 San Antonio 106.4
Minnesota 97.3 Tulsa 108.3
Tulsa 94.5 Phoenix 109.1
For the first time all year, the Mercury leads the WNBA in Offensive Rating, having exploded for 250 points in the last two games. Two overtimes in Minnesota, a fast pace and playing the Shock’s defense all were factors for Phoenix, but there’s no denying the Mercury offense is locked in right now.
The team that was struggling before Tuesday’s easy win in Tulsa was the Dream, which has slipped to fifth in the league in Defensive Rating and out of the top five in Offensive Rating. More on that in a second.
One last note: the league-wide Offensive Rating continues to reach new heights. We’re nearly averaging 102 points per 100 possessions.
EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS
Team Exp. W% Team Exp. W%
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Seattle .823 Indiana .717
Phoenix .579 Washington .619
Minnesota .345 Chicago .556
Los Angeles .329 Connecticut .549
San Antonio .319 Atlanta .543
Tulsa .141 New York .493
In the standings, the East is still wide-open – the Dream moved within a half-game of the Fever with today’s win (which is not reflected in these stats), though Atlanta is two back in the loss column. Point differential tells a very different story, with Indiana easily ahead of the rest of the conference. Given that the Fever has beaten both Atlanta and Washington (on the road) during a current four-game winning streak, it’s getting harder to argue with that conclusion.
Right now, Chicago is the WNBA’s hard-luck team. The Sky has a better point differential than the Sun, and was ahead of the Dream, yet still is on the outside of the playoffs looking in. If Chicago could only be a bit more consistent, we might see the Sky make its first-ever playoff appearance.
After Seattle and Phoenix, the West is still up for grabs, and statistically the Sparks have been as good as either of the two primary contenders for the last two playoff spots.
WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Sylvia Fowles CHI .774 6.9
Tamika Catchings IND .831 6.9
Lauren Jackson SEA .812 6.8
Cappie Pondexter NYL .675 4.9
Penny Taylor PHO .667 4.3
Diana Taurasi PHO .667 4.3
Katie Douglas IND .673 4.3
Tina Charles CON .669 4.2
Crystal Langhorne WAS .640 4.1
Sue Bird SEA .638 3.6
Same order for our top three but even less separation this week. The next three are all members of the 2009 Mercury. Cappie Pondexter is having a sensational season, even if having her carry such a heavy offensive load hasn’t been a great success for the Liberty (seventh in the league in Offensive Rating). Meanwhile, her old Phoenix teammates are able to share the load with each other and Candice Dupree (just outside the top 10).
Tina Charles has trailed off a little bit lately and is no longer near the MVP discussion, but she’s still easily tops among rookies in WARP. Epiphanny Prince (2.2) is the only other rookie over 1 WARP. The Storm’s Jana Veselá (0.7) is third.
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