It’s been two weeks since we checked in on the advanced NBA statistics, which has been enough time for some movement to take place. While Seattle and Indiana remain tops in their respective conferences, other contenders are starting to emerge – most notably in the Big Apple. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       112.7     Indiana        95.9
Seattle       110.8     Seattle        97.6
Indiana       103.4     Washington     98.2
New York      103.3     Atlanta        99.1
LEAGUE        102.9     New York      101.1
San Antonio   102.8     Chicago       101.3
Connecticut   102.7     Connecticut   102.9
Atlanta       102.7     LEAGUE        102.9
Chicago       102.1     Minnesota     104.1
Washington    101.5     Los Angeles   104.7
Los Angeles   100.3     San Antonio   108.4
Minnesota      98.2     Tulsa         109.9
Tulsa          94.3     Phoenix       110.3

The league just continues to get better and better on offense. Teams are now averaging nearly 103 points per 100 possessions, and just two of the WNBA’s 12 teams are below a point per possession. In part due to the rise in scoring around the league, the Phoenix Mercury is likely to set an interesting pair of records this season. In terms of raw per-possession ratings without any adjustment for league context, the Mercury will almost certainly have both the best offense in WNBA history (surpassing the 2000 Houston Comets, who posted a 110.1 Offensive Rating) and the worst defense (surpassing the 2000 Charlotte Sting, which allowed a 107.9 Defensive Rating).

The big climber over the last two weeks has been New York, which has joined the Storm and the Fever as teams in the top five in both offense and defense. Actually, that took improvement on offense from Indiana as well. The Fever and Liberty bumped down the Sun and Dream, who have struggled to score lately. San Antonio has also surged in terms of Offensive Rating.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .827     Indiana        .668
Phoenix        .583     Washington     .596
Los Angeles    .367     Atlanta        .595
Minnesota      .356     New York       .540
San Antonio    .355     Connecticut    .509
Tulsa          .101     Chicago        .506

Saturday’s overtime loss at Minnesota was probably a death knell for the Sky’s season. Chicago’s un-magic number is two to be eliminated from playoff contention. There is little question that the Sky has been the league’s most unlucky team. Chicago will likely finish with a worse record than 2008 (16-18) despite dramatically improving its point differential. The Sky also drew the short stick in terms of playing in the loaded Eastern Conference; in the West, Chicago would still be very much in the postseason mix.

After Indiana, the East still looks very wide-open. Meanwhile, point differential does little to help us separate the three contenders for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .815    8.6
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .790    8.1
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .755    7.9
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .665    6.0
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .672    5.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .662    5.3
Tina Charles        CON   .659    5.3
Katie Douglas       IND   .660    5.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .649    5.0
Angel McCoughtry    ATL   .616    4.5

With a couple of big recent efforts, Tamika Catchings has taken the league lead in WARP for the first time. Lauren Jackson remains right on her heels, but statistically it won’t help her that Brian Agler plans to reduce minutes for his starters during the Storm’s remaining road games.

Atlanta’s Angel McCoughtry returns to this list for the first time since early in the season, bumping out slumping Crystal Langhorne.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 9th, 2010 at 5:00 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.