Saturday’s matchup with Phoenix, which aired on NBA TV, was a showcase for what the New York Liberty has become during the second half of the season. New York won its eighth consecutive game in lopsided fashion, torching a lackluster Mercury defense while shutting down Diana Taurasi. Would you believe that Anne Donovan is two wins away from a career high for victories in a season during her last year coaching in the WNBA before moving to Seton Hall? Donovan’s Storm teams won 20 games in 2004 (the championship year) and 2005; the Liberty currently has 19 wins. New York is also putting together some impressive advanced statistics, all you see. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.7     Indiana        96.0
Seattle       109.7     Washington     97.7
New York      104.6     Seattle        98.4
Indiana       104.3     Atlanta        99.2
LEAGUE        103.0     New York      100.7
Atlanta       102.8     Chicago       102.1
San Antonio   102.7     Minnesota     102.5
Connecticut   102.7     Connecticut   102.7
Chicago       101.7     LEAGUE        103.0
Washington    101.6     Los Angeles   105.0
Los Angeles   100.8     San Antonio   108.0
Minnesota      98.1     Tulsa         110.6
Tulsa          95.0     Phoenix       111.6

Remarkably, four of the top fives in both offense and defense are identical right now. The Storm remains the league’s most balanced team, ranking second and third respectively, despite slowing down while resting starters last week. New York has joined that group, which also includes Indiana and Atlanta. Your more one-dimensional top teams? Phoenix (offense) and Washington (defense).

Among the teams battling for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference, the Silver Stars have shown more potency lately on offense (though that could be hurt if the team is without Chamique Holdsclaw the rest of the way after she was injured Sunday in Minnesota), while Minnesota has improved to better than league average on defense. It really is remarkably how much the Lynx, who were an all-offense squad a year ago, have changed their stripes this year.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Seattle        .775     Indiana        .693
Phoenix        .504     Washington     .610
Minnesota      .384     Atlanta        .594
Los Angeles    .380     New York       .587
San Antonio    .377     Connecticut    .505
Tulsa          .101     Chicago        .489

Surprisingly, though the Liberty has substantially improved its point differential, it still remains behind the other three playoff teams in the East. New York is close enough to Atlanta and Washington that could change this week, however.

As close as the West’s last three playoff contenders are in the standings, where all three are tied at 12-19, there is little more separation between them in terms of points scored and allowed. The gap between the Lynx and the Silver Stars is a difference of seven points all season.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .813    9.6
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .759    8.5
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .779    8.2
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .695    7.1
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .657    5.8
Tina Charles        CON   .658    5.8
Katie Douglas       IND   .657    5.7
Sue Bird            SEA   .655    5.5
Penny Taylor        PHO   .654    5.5
Crystal Langhorne   WAS   .606    5.0

As you’d expect, the time Lauren Jackson sat out last week with the Storm securing home-court advantage throughout its postseason run allowed Tamika Catchings to pull away in the race for the league’s best WARP total and Sylvia Fowles to pass Jackson for second. This is pretty clearly one of those situations where the numbers don’t tell the whole story in terms of Jackson and the Storm having already done their work to accomplish every regular-season goal.

If the season was 50 games long, Cappie Pondexter might be able to catch up to the leaders. If there was an MVP of the second half, Pondexter would be it. Over the course of the season, though, she can’t compare to the top three players.

After Pondexter, there’s a logjam, with five players separated by 0.3 WARP and .004 in terms of per-minute winning percentage. This is what pollsters refer to as within the margin of error. Any of the five would be good choices to round out the All-WNBA First Team. Crystal Langhorne popped back ahead of Angel McCoughtry in their multi-week battle for the 10th and final spot on this list.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 16th, 2010 at 7:02 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.