Well, that didn’t resolve anything. Los Angeles, Minnesota and San Antonio came into last night tied for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference at 12-19. All three played close, but all lost, so they finished the night … all tied for the last two playoff spots in the Western Conference at 12-20.
We know that there will be a little more clarity by Friday, because the Sparks and Lynx play each other in a crucial showdown at the Staples Center. Before then, though, I wanted to put some numbers to the various possibilities. There are 32 different scenarios remaining (since there are a total of five games left; 32 is two to the fifth power). I took a look at each one and used tie-breakers to help figure out where each team would finish (as you imagine, there’s a pretty good chance at least two teams end the season tied).
I then used the Hollinger Power Rankings and home-court advantage to estimate the chances of each outcome for the remaining games. For example, the numbers indicate that Los Angeles has a 59.5 percent chance to win Friday’s game, almost entirely due to home-court advantage. The last step was summing up all possibilities.
Now, before I show you the numbers, allow me to emphasize that these are just estimates. The power rankings cannot account for the fact that San Antonio is without Chamique Holdsclaw and Minnesota will not have Nicky Anosike the rest of the reason. The other big wild card is the motivation of teams already in the playoffs. Phoenix is locked into the No. 2 seed. Will the Mercury go all-out in Sunday’s season finale? Perhaps not. Indiana’s position may also be settled by the time the Fever hosts the Lynx on Sunday.
That caveat provided, here are the odds of each team finishing in each spot:
Team 3 4 5 Play
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Los Angeles .312 .339 .350 .650
Minnesota .310 .272 .418 .582
San Antonio .379 .389 .232 .768
Even though San Antonio has two tough teams on the schedule (Indiana and Phoenix), the Silver Stars appear to be in the best position because both games are at home and because they have the tie-breaker against Los Angeles. Still, nearly a quarter of the time San Antonio is expected to miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, all three teams have better than 50-50 odds of reaching the postseason.
How crucial is Friday’s game? Minnesota is expected to miss the playoffs 38.4 percent of the time when losing that game, but just 3.4 percent with a win. Meanwhile, a win Friday would guarantee Los Angeles a playoff spot (the Sparks win any possible tie against the Lynx, who could do no better than tie with a loss on Friday), while L.A. misses the postseason 35.0 percent of the team when falling to Minnesota.
One more table – here are the likelihoods of each possible combination of teams:
Odds No. 3 seed No. 4 seed Out
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.335 San Antonio Los Angeles Minnesota
.306 Minnesota San Antonio Los Angeles
.228 Los Angeles Minnesota San Antonio
.083 Los Angeles San Antonio Minnesota
.044 San Antonio Minnesota Los Angeles
.004 Minnesota Los Angeles San Antonio
Even though the most likely single scenario has San Antonio in third, because the Minnesota-L.A. scenario is so unlikely (it requires the Lynx to sweep the last two games, the Sparks to win in Seattle and San Antonio to lose out), the Silver Stars are the most likely No. 4 seed and the team the Storm is likeliest to see next week – strictly by the numbers.
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Am I the only one rooting for Minnesota on Friday? I would LOVE it if LA didn’t make the playoffs AT ALL this season.
I did some of these numbers today as well (bored at work.) Some of the tie-breakers made my head hurt, especially the scenario where San Antonio beat’s Indiana then loses to Phoenix. LA beats Minnesota and loses to Seattle, and Minnesota beats Indiana. All three teams finish with 13 wins, and I believe end in SAN-LAS-MIN order, but I had to go to record against all teams > 500.
What’s interesting is how the numbers with just a straight 50-50 chance in each game are similar to the power rankings numbers. If you were to decide each game with a coin flip, assuming I didn’t make mistakes, the chances of each team finishing in each spot are:
Team 3 4 5
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Los Angeles .281 .375 .344
Minnesota .344 .250 .406
San Antonio .375 .375 .250
I didn’t do the full breakdown of 3-4-5 possibilities, but I suspect they would also be similar. Also interesting is in 75% of the possible outcomes a tiebreaker is needed to determine the final standings.
What’s amazing is how many possibilities there are left with only two games remaining!
I would love to NOT see the Lynx in the first round. In fact, I would like to see them play phoenix in the first round because I think they could give phoenix a run for their money. I want LA for the first round, pay them back for the past few years….but San Antonio would do as well! :) GOOO STORM!
Chris, as I understand the three-way tie scenario combined head-to-head would be all that would be needed. With a win over Minnesota, L.A. would be 5-3 against the other two teams. San Antonio would be 5-4 and Minnesota would be 3-6. That would put the teams LAS/SAS/MIN.
If the Lynx wins Friday and all three teams end up tied, it’s SAS (5-4), LAS (4-4) and MIN (4-5). Minnesota has no way of advancing with a three-way tie.
Ah yes, you’re correct. I somehow had LA’s current record in head to head teams at 4-4, when it’s 4-3. That mistake should only have come into play on the few scenarios where all teams ended up tied, so it may impact the numbers I had, but not significantly (I don’t have the spreadsheet in front of me to double check.) I do know I also had MIN finishing last in all three way tie scenarios.
Thanks for geeking out on stats for us. I know it takes a bunch of time, but it’s fun to read!
You are not the only one hoping LA does not go to playoffs. I do not think they will. Storm beat them Saturday and they do not go. This is my hope too.
The numbers don’t account for the absence of Chamique Holdsclaw, which changes the San Antonio equation drastically.
Great to see the ever-awesome Kevin Pelton upping the throughput on the StormTracker posts. Great to see so many thoughtful comments too.
Rather than prognosticate over what I think will happen, I’d like to say what I HOPE will happen. The ideal scenario for me is for San Antonio to be the odd man out. The worst scenario is for LA to be the odd man out. Why? I’m thinking not so much about a potential first-round playoff opponent. If the Storm can’t put away a team with a record well below .500, they weren’t title contenders to begin with.
No, my concern is about next year’s draft, a.k.a. the Maya Moore sweepstakes. If LA even gets in the lottery, you just know they’re going to win it. And I don’t want to see the Storm facing a Parker-Moore combo while they’re in win-now mode over the next couple years. Likewise, Minnesota is so young and such a tough matchup already and so loaded with talent, they don’t need any more. Well, I should be careful what I wish for. Maybe Moore is just the ingredient to put SA over the top. Really, though, my wish-for lottery winner is Tulsa, even if they are in the West.
And you know what, I shouldn’t even be thinking about the future. When you have a serious shot to win a championship, the only thing that matters is the here and now.
i would love to see S.A in round 1. because they don’t stand a chance with us. Phoenix would have to play L.A
and that leaves us in good odds. I’ll take a round 2 Phoenix over a round 1 L.A. .Anyone L.A. plays in the
playoffs is going to get hurt physically or mentally. L.A is not a team who loses well, they beat you up and ware you down. So playing it safe Phoenix over L.A. and Storm over S.A. Then give us Phoenix and we’ll finish off where L.A. left off. lol… GO STORM!