We’re a week away from the All-Star break and as of today more than 40 percent of the WNBA’s regular-season schedule is complete, believe it or not. Here’s the latest advanced statistical breakdown of the league. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.
OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS
Team ORtg Team DRtg
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Phoenix 111.8 Minnesota 94.7
San Antonio 106.4 Chicago 96.9
New York 106.1 Seattle 97.0
Los Angeles 105.9 New York 99.7
Minnesota 105.8 Indiana 100.0
Indiana 105.5 San Antonio 100.3
Connecticut 102.6 LEAGUE 101.6
LEAGUE 101.6 Atlanta 101.7
Washington 98.3 Connecticut 101.9
Chicago 98.0 Phoenix 103.4
Seattle 96.5 Los Angeles 106.4
Atlanta 93.5 Washington 107.3
Tulsa 89.6 Tulsa 110.0
Suddenly, the Mercury offense has become significantly more efficient than any other in the league. The style Phoenix playing right now – dominant offense and decent defense – has been a highly successful one for the Mercury in the past. On defense, the big mover last week was the Liberty, which vaulted from eighth to fourth. Playing the league’s two worst offenses will help that process, but New York also did a good job defensively against the Connecticut Sun in a game lost by uncharacteristically poor offense.
EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS
Team Exp. W% Team Exp. W%
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Minnesota .753 Indiana .610
Phoenix .735 New York .586
San Antonio .687 Connecticut .558
Seattle .525 Chicago .498
Los Angeles .459 Atlanta .345
Tulsa .000 Washington .292
With the Fever slumping a bit, the East has gotten much tighter at the top. Chicago still has the opportunity to make it a four-team race. In the West, Phoenix has leapfrogged San Antonio in terms of point differential. The Tulsa Shock has struggled so badly recently that a team with the Shock’s point differential would not be expected to win all season. Obviously that’s preposterous, and differential isn’t meant to be taken so literally at the extremes, but there is a lot of room for improvement in Tulsa’s current form.
WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Sue Bird SEA .639 2.2
Diana Taurasi PHO .628 1.9
Swin Cash SEA .607 1.9
Maya Moore MIN .608 1.6
Candace Parker LAS .728 1.5
Cappie Pondexter NYL .659 2.6
Katie Douglas IND .697 2.5
Tamika Catchings IND .736 3.3
Angel McCoughtry ATL .526 0.8
Tina Charles CON .606 1.8
We’ll look first at the starting lineups for Saturday’s All-Star Game. In the West, despite being injured, Candace Parker is still the most valuable center, so it’s hard to be too critical of fans voting her into the game. Personally, I think there’s fan voting for a reason, so I wouldn’t complain anyways. The healthy selection who’s drawn the most ire is rookie Maya Moore, who led all players in balloting. Moore has, statistically, been better than you’d believe from that reaction. She’s a versatile contributor and rarely turns the ball over. Teammate Rebekkah Brunson has been better, certainly (to say nothing of Penny Taylor) but Moore would belong in contention for a spot as a reserve.
In the East, I’d have gone Sylvia Fowles over Tina Charles, but again Charles belongs on the team. Angel McCoughtry’s low WARP total stands out. However, the alternatives at forward in the East were also relatively week.
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Penny Taylor PHO .743 2.9
Candice Dupree PHO .621 1.9
Rebekkah Brunson MIN .640 1.9
Danielle Adams SAS .737 1.9
Lindsay Whalen MIN .639 1.8
Becky Hammon SAS .638 1.8
Kristi Toliver LAS .639 1.6
DeWanna Bonner PHO .621 1.4
Sophia Young SAS .583 1.3
Jia Perkins SAS .592 1.2
Now let’s take a look at the reserves and fill out a ballot. (Like Storm Head Coach Brian Agler, I’ll vote strictly for players from the other West teams.) At guard, Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen are easy choices. At forward, I’ll go for the Mercury’s duo of Taylor and Candice Dupree. That leaves the matter of center, where the best player in terms of WARP has been Phoenix’s Kara Braxton (1.1). I’d argue Brunson, who occasionally plays the pivot, ought to be eligible. If the picks are made strictly by positions on the ballot, then I’m going to use the loophole to pick rookie Danielle Adams, who wasn’t on the ballot as a reserve, and make Brunson a utility pick.
Strictly by the numbers, Kristi Toliver would be the president’s choice to replace the injured Parker on the roster, but I’d probably lean toward giving the hometown crowd another representative and choosing Sophia Young.
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Sylvia Fowles CHI .715 3.3
Epiphanny Prince CHI .635 2.4
Renee Montgomery CON .634 1.9
Jessica Davenport IND .628 1.6
Essence Carson NYL .658 1.6
Kia Vaughn NYL .535 1.3
Kara Lawson CON .562 1.1
Nicole Powell NYL .537 1.1
Plenette Pierson NYL .528 1.0
Nicky Anosike WAS .515 0.9
In the East, if Fowles isn’t the backup center, we should call off the whole competition. Fortunately, I think we’ll be OK there. At guard, it’s the young duo of Renee Montgomery and Epiphanny Prince that has claimed places on the roster. The utility spot goes to Indiana’s Jessica Davenport, in the midst of a breakout season. Forward is a little trickier. If I could stretch positions, I’d pick Essence Carson, the best of a bunch of Liberty options near the middle of the East pack. Otherwise, Nicole Powell or Plenette Pierson is an acceptable pick. For the last spot, I’m going slightly off the board to take Crystal Langhorne. Langhorne’s just outside the top 10 East non-starters in WARP in part due to injury, and she has a better track record of success.
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