Lynx Dominate Advanced Stats

Posted on Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011 at 6:09 pm by Kevin Pelton

A little late due to the busy week, here are the updated WNBA advanced stats. They serve as a testament to the performance of the Minnesota Lynx, who have emerged as the league’s top team with a seven-game winning streak. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       110.6     Minnesota      96.0
Minnesota     108.1     Seattle        97.2
New York      105.2     Indiana        97.3
Indiana       104.9     Chicago        97.5
Los Angeles   104.1     San Antonio   100.2
San Antonio   103.5     Connecticut   100.3
LEAGUE        101.6     New York      100.5
Connecticut   101.2     Atlanta       101.4
Seattle        99.1     LEAGUE        101.6
Chicago        98.0     Phoenix       105.9
Washington     97.5     Washington    106.6
Atlanta        97.0     Tulsa         108.5
Tulsa          89.2     Los Angeles   108.8

Minnesota is back on top in Defensive Rating and a strong No. 2 in Offensive Rating, having cut the gap with Phoenix in half over the last week. The league’s other most balanced team right now is the East-leading Indiana Fever, which also sits in the top four at both ends of the floor.

The Storm is moving up the Offensive Rating leaderboard. Currently, Seattle is in ninth place, the best the team has been since the early part of the season. The Defensive Rating standings are bizarre. At the top, there are four elite defenses. Then there is a group of four teams that have been better than average and all have allowed a similar number of points per 100 possessions. After them, there’s a big gap down to the four teams that have struggled at the defensive end. A blowout loss in Indiana sent the Sparks tumbling to the bottom of the rankings. So far, Joe Bryant has been unable to turn things around at the defensive end of the floor.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .800     Indiana        .668
Phoenix        .613     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .613     New York       .569
Seattle        .554     Chicago        .480
Los Angeles    .355     Atlanta        .424
Tulsa          .017     Washington     .304

In both conferences, one top team has emerged, with the next couple virtually indistinguishable in terms of point differential. Adjusting for schedule and recent play, however, tells a different story. The most recent Hollinger Power Rankings have the Storm all the way up to fourth in the WNBA, ahead of San Antonio.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .733    5.0
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .685    4.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .714    4.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .664    3.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .680    3.6
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .632    3.5
Katie Douglas       IND   .664    3.2
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .632    3.1
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .607    2.9
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .636    2.8

A couple of familiar names are surging up the rankings. One is Diana Taurasi, who has added a full win over replacement to her total since we last updated. Lindsay Whalen makes her first appearance in the top 10 after her excellent month of July. Angel McCoughtry still sits in 14th after a slow start to the season, but with another week like her last two, she’ll soon appear in the leaderboard.

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