After a week’s break to deal with Sue Bird content, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.2     Minnesota      95.8
Minnesota     107.0     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.7     Indiana        96.9
Los Angeles   103.9     Seattle        97.7
New York      102.0     San Antonio    98.3
San Antonio   101.3     New York       98.7
Connecticut   101.1     Connecticut    99.4
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.6
Atlanta        98.0     LEAGUE        100.8
Washington     97.9     Washington    105.0
Seattle        97.0     Phoenix       106.3
Chicago        96.5     Los Angeles   108.1
Tulsa          88.5     Tulsa         108.3

The most interesting note this week might relate to the league average, which is down from 101.6 points per 100 possessions two weeks ago. Typically, offense tends to get better as the season goes on, possibly because of defensive fatigue and possibly because of improved continuity on offense. That hasn’t been the case this year, and certainly not for the Storm, which has struggled to score the last week and a half or so. Fourth place in defense is also about as low as the Storm has been in the rankings all season.

Offensively, the big movers were the Sparks, who are now fourth in the league without the benefit of Candace Parker (more on her in a second). If Los Angeles can get anywhere close to average defensively, the team’s offense is good enough to win games. The defensive tiers we saw previously no longer exist, at least at the top, where there’s a gradual progression among the first nine teams before a huge gulf between above-average Atlanta and the struggling Mystics.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .783     Indiana        .674
Phoenix        .615     Connecticut    .570
San Antonio    .580     New York       .541
Seattle        .500     Chicago        .493
Los Angeles    .371     Atlanta        .486
Tulsa          .015     Washington     .345

For the most part, differential tends to mirror the actual standings right now. The lone exception is Atlanta ranking behind Chicago in the East, though the difference between the two teams in negligible. The Dream has made up a lot of ground lately, especially with two wins against the Storm that dropped Seattle’s point differential.

In case you were curious, the Lynx’s differential is better right now (+8.6) than the Storm’s was in 2010 (+7.9), though that dropped significantly late in the season when Brian Agler rested starters. It was +9.9 through the team’s first 29 games.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .766    6.5
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .715    6.4
Penny Taylor        PHO   .724    5.3
Becky Hammon        SAS   .687    4.8
Epiphanny Prince    CHI   .643    4.4
Sue Bird            SEA   .638    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .649    4.1
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .649    3.9
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .610    3.8
Katie Douglas       IND   .654    3.8

The same 10 players, though in a slightly different order. Sue Bird has slumped a bit recently, while Becky Hammon and Lindsay Whalen have surged.

In 30th place with 1.8 WARP, still tops on the Sparks, is Parker – who has been out since June 26. As she prepares to return, I wanted to take a look at how much different Los Angeles has been with her in the lineup. I adjusted the scores in each Sparks game for the quality of the opposition (based on season-long differential, for better or worse) and location.

Doing so shows that Los Angeles was 5.2 points per game better than average with Parker, which is more impressive than the 4-3 Sparks record would indicate. All seven of those games were against teams with above-.500 records and L.A. scored impressive blowouts of Phoenix and the Storm with Parker, as well as one of just five defeats the Lynx have suffered all season. A +5.2 differential would put the Sparks even with Indiana as the league’s second-best team.

Without Parker, Los Angeles has been about as bad as you’d assume. Their -6.7 differential is improved slightly by playing nine out of 15 games on the road, but the Sparks have still been 5.7 points per game worse than average since Parker’s injury.

The interesting part of this exercise is looking at L.A.’s remaining schedule. Because it’s home-friendly, an average team would go 7-5 the rest of the way. If the Sparks can get to +5.2 points per game – which might not be possible with Parker working her way back to 100 percent – we’d expect them to go around 9-3 in their last 12 games. That would require the Storm to go 6-4 the rest of the way to finish with a better record and guarantee a playoff spot.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 15th, 2011 at 6:54 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.