With three weeks left in the regular season, we’re back with WNBA advanced stats. As always, see our updated Statistical Analysis 101 page for explanations of these stats.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       111.1     Indiana        96.2
Minnesota     107.6     Chicago        96.3
Indiana       104.5     Minnesota      97.3
Los Angeles   103.2     Seattle        97.9
Connecticut   102.4     New York       98.0
New York      101.3     San Antonio    98.7
San Antonio   101.0     Connecticut    99.6
LEAGUE        100.8     Atlanta        99.8
Atlanta        98.5     LEAGUE        100.8
Seattle        97.4     Washington    105.1
Chicago        96.4     Phoenix       106.4
Washington     96.2     Los Angeles   107.3
Tulsa          88.6     Tulsa         107.8

The Phoenix Mercury and Chicago Sky are putting the lie to the preeminence of defense this season. The Mercury and Sky are largely mirror images (first on offense/10th on defense for Phoenix, 10th/second for Chicago), yet Phoenix’s defense is so far ahead of the pack that the Mercury is one of the league’s better teams while the Sky might be left out of the postseason.

The Sparks have won two of their last three with Candace Parker back in the lineup, but her return has yet to invigorate their defense. Los Angeles will have to find a way to stop opponents to make as serious run at the postseason.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team        Exp. W%     Team        Exp. W%
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      .762     Indiana        .690
Phoenix        .616     Connecticut    .595
San Antonio    .563     New York       .543
Seattle        .497     Chicago        .495
Los Angeles    .375     Atlanta        .490
Tulsa          .027     Washington     .297

The Sky has a slight edge on Atlanta in terms of point differential, but not in the all-important standings, and as a result the Dream is the heavy favorite to claim the last playoff spot in the East. Other than that, not a lot of chances for teams to move too far up and down the rest of the season.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Tamika Catchings    IND   .780    7.6
Sylvia Fowles       CHI   .709    6.6
Penny Taylor        PHO   .729    5.9
Becky Hammon        SAS   .683    5.2
Sue Bird            SEA   .640    4.7
Cappie Pondexter    NYL   .617    4.5
Lindsay Whalen      MIN   .650    4.3
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .651    4.3
Renee Montgomery    CON   .635    4.3
Tina Charles        CON   .602    4.2

Tamika Catchings is really beginning to open up ground on the rest of the field in terms of WARP. This might finally be the year where she wins a long-overdue MVP award. Sylvia Fowles and Penny Taylor also have some separation, but thereafter it’s fairly close from fourth to 10th, a group that includes six guards and Tina Charles.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011 at 4:47 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.