Just two games in the WNBA last night, but both had playoff implications. In the East, Atlanta’s run was stopped by Washington as the Dream badly missed Erika De Souza. Out West, San Antonio blew past Phoenix to get back in the mix for one of the top three spots in the conference.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   6   -    2/2
Seattle        17  13  7.0   2/2
Phoenix        17  13  7.0   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  9.0   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 11.0   3/1

The Storm currently would be the second seed by virtue of winning the tie with the Mercury. Last night’s Phoenix loss was also important because it gives the Storm some margin for error. As long as the Storm wins next Friday’s matchup with the Mercury, the team can afford to lose another game along the way and finish second no matter what.

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       22.2   .92   .06   .02   .00   .00
Connecticut   20.3   .07   .73   .13   .08   .00
Atlanta       18.6   .01   .12   .36   .51   .00
New York      18.4   .00   .11   .50   .39   .00
Chicago       15.4   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.8   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     26.8  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .52   .38   .10   .00
Seattle       19.2   .00   .47   .44   .09   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .19   .75   .05
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .05   .95
Tulsa          3.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Atlanta’s loss didn’t really open the door for Chicago. The Sky made the playoffs in precisely one of the 500 simulations (and what a fascinating finish that must have been). The Dream is now most likely to finish fourth because New York holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. That shouldn’t thrill the Fever, though Atlanta is clearly a different team without De Souza.

In the West, San Antonio’s win helped and hurt the Storm. The upside is that the Storm is now much more likely to finish in second place in the conference. The downside is that there’s now a realistic chance the Storm finishes fourth and has to play Minnesota in the opening round. Phoenix has a higher chance of being fourth because the Silver Stars earned the tiebreaker against the Mercury, while the Storm would win a tie with San Antonio (as well as, by about any scenario I can envision, a three-team tie). We’ll know a little more after tonight and a lot more once the Storm has faced the Silver Stars on Saturday in a crucial game.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(3) at Phoenix (2): 43%
(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 37%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 10%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 9%

This entry was posted on Friday, September 2nd, 2011 at 11:17 am and is filed under playoff picture. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.