Playoff Picture: Sept. 3

Posted on Friday, September 2nd, 2011 at 10:26 pm by Kevin Pelton

This much we know: The Storm is in the playoffs. Where the team will finish and who will line up on the other side when the WNBA Playoffs start Sept. 15 is still unclear.

Team            W   L   GB   H/A
--------------------------------
Minnesota      24   7   -    1/2
Seattle        18  13  6.0   2/1
Phoenix        17  13  6.5   3/1
San Antonio    15  15  8.5   2/2
Los Angeles    13  17 10.5   3/1

Let’s take a look at the latest results from 500 simulations of the remainder of the season:

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Indiana       21.6   .83   .12   .03   .01   .00
Connecticut   20.7   .14   .68   .10   .08   .00
New York      19.4   .02   .15   .67   .16   .00
Atlanta       18.9   .02   .07   .19   .72   .00
Chicago       15.6   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00
Washington     6.5   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Team            W      1     2     3     4   LOT
------------------------------------------------
Minnesota     25.9  1.00   .00   .00   .00   .00
Phoenix       19.8   .00   .44   .46   .11   .00
Seattle       19.5   .00   .56   .40   .04   .00
San Antonio   17.9   .00   .01   .14   .79   .06
Los Angeles   15.1   .00   .00   .00   .06   .94
Tulsa          3.3   .00   .00   .00   .00  1.00

Indiana’s three-game losing streak has thrown the Eastern Conference into significant chaos. Any finish of the top four teams in the East is possible with them separated by just 2.5 games. Despite winning a blowout, Atlanta was the loser, as New York’s surprising victory in Minnesota solidified the Liberty’s chances of a top-three seed.

In the West, it’s today’s matchups – the Storm at San Antonio and Phoenix at Los Angeles – that are likely to be telling. Today’s win did bump up the Storm’s chances of finishing second in the West. With a win tonight, the Storm can essentially ensure finishing no worse than third. I haven’t played out all the scenarios, but I don’t see one where the Silver Stars could finish ahead of the Storm without winning tonight.

The opponents the Storm is most likely to face:

(2) vs. Phoenix (3): 45%
(3) at Phoenix (2): 40%
(2) vs. San Antonio (3): 11%
(4) at Minnesota (1): 4%

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