I skipped out on last week’s WNBA numbers in favor of a midseason Storm analysis. This week, we’re back, and the numbers reveal just how well the Storm has played during its six-game winning streak. The Storm now has the best point differential in the league at +4.3 points per game. To reflect that, let’s start our analysis with expected wins based on point differential projected to a full 34-game season.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW------------------    ------------------Seattle       21.8    Detroit       20.8San Antonio   20.5    Connecticut   20.4Minnesota     19.4    Indiana       18.5Los Angeles   19.1    New York      18.4Phoenix       15.5    Chicago       15.8Houston       15.3    Washington    12.7Sacramento    15.0    Atlanta        5.0

While the top of the West has pulled away a bit, the battle for the fourth and final playoff spot is still tight. 1.5 games separate Minnesota and last-place Houston. In terms of differential, the Lynx are way, way ahead of the back. The other three teams have slipped over the last week or two. The Silver Stars are on pace for 24 or 25 wins and continue to outplay their differential, as they did last year. Interesting. A good differential bodes well for postseason success, but I’d rather have the wins and home-court advantage.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating---------------------     ---------------------Phoenix         107.0     Indiana          89.8Minnesota       102.9     Seattle          93.3New York        102.0     San Antonio      93.5Connecticut     101.8     Los Angeles      94.4Detroit         101.4     Detroit          96.4Seattle         100.8     Washington       97.6Chicago          99.4     Houston          98.0          AVERAGE          98.6San Antonio      98.1     Connecticut      98.7Los Angeles      97.9     Minnesota        99.7Sacramento       97.8     Chicago         100.7Houston          94.3     New York        100.7Atlanta          93.1     Sacramento      100.9Indiana          92.0     Atlanta         107.2Washington       91.9     Phoenix         108.9

The Storm’s stifling defense on Saturday has moved the team into second in the WNBA in Defensive Rating. Wha’s interesting about these rankings is how little balance there is in the WNBA this season. The best offensive teams are not good on defense and vice versa. The Storm and Detroit are the only two teams who have been above-average at both ends of the floor so far this season.

Two really bad units on teams that dominate the other end: The Indiana offense and, of course, the Phoenix defense. Tamika Catchings‘ return hasn’t helped the Fever the way everyone figured it would. Clearly, Catchings is not 100 percent. After a nice run in early July, last week she combined for nine points on 3-of-17 shooting in two games. As for the Mercury, it’s not too early for me to put looking up the worst defenses in WNBA history on my to-do list.

To the individual stats. Here are the leaders by Player Efficiency Rating, minimum 250 minutes.

Player              Tm   PER----------------------------Diana Taurasi      PHO  28.1Lauren Jackson     SEA  27.4Lindsay Whalen     CON  27.0Candace Parker     LAS  26.7Sancho Lyttle      HOU  26.2Sophia Young       SAS  25.9Cappie Pondexter   PHO  25.4Janel McCarville   NYL  25.2Candice Dupree     CHI  24.6Candice Wiggins    MIN  23.7

Jackson’s run recently has her in position to potentially lead the WNBA in PER for the third straight season. Don’t forget Whalen in that race. She was brilliant yesterday against Washington even in a Sun loss; I don’t see how you could watch that game and come to the conclusion that anyone but Whalen is Connecticut’s MVP. While we’re talking MVP, don’t leave Young out of that discussion. Not only is her PER sixth in the league, she’s edged past Jackson and Storm teammate Sue Bird for the best net plus-minus rating in the league (as tracked by the indispensable Paul Swanson).

Lastly, I want to take a look at a miscellaneous statistic each week. We’ll start with rebound percentage, the estimated percentage of all available rebounds that a player grabs while on the floor. Here are the league leaders this season.

Player              Tm  Reb%----------------------------Sancho Lyttle      HOU  19.1Cheryl Ford        DET  18.9Yolanda Griffith   SEA  18.3Tiffany Jackson    NYL  17.7Katie Feenstra     ATL  16.9Michelle Snow      HOU  16.8Crystal Langhorne  WAS  16.8Rebekkah Brunson   SAC  16.8Lisa Leslie        LAS  16.1Nakia Sanford      WAS  16.0

Lyttle has averaged 9.1 rebounds per game as a starter. The Comets wisely have gone back to the big lineup with Lyttle, Snow and Tina Thompson in the frontcourt that was so successful for them a year ago.

I don’t think Griffith’s rebounding has gotten enough credit this season, especially from the people who like fixate on her age. What’s really impressive is that Griffith has changed her game to become a much better defensive rebounder because of the Storm’s need on the defensive glass. (Alternatively, maybe the white-line defense was keeping Griffith from establishing good defensive position.)

The one name on this list that was a surprise to me was Langhorne, who has been a force in the glass and an effective finisher in the paint as a rookie. Langhorne has been overshadowed by the depth of the rookie class, but she’s got a bright future in Washington.

Now the Storm by rebound percentage:

Player              Tm  Reb%----------------------------Yolanda Griffith   SEA  18.3Shyra Ely          SEA  12.8Lauren Jackson     SEA  12.4Ashley Robinson    SEA  11.7Sheryl Swoopes     SEA  10.7Swin Cash          SEA  10.6Camille Little     SEA   9.9Tanisha Wright     SEA   8.1Katie Gearlds      SEA   6.5Sue Bird           SEA   5.7

By definition, league average for rebound percentage is 10 percent (because there’s 10 players on the court at any time); six Storm players clear that mark with Little essentially at it. When the Storm rebounds well, as it has lately, it’s by committee. In particular, when Swoopes is at shooting guard her rebounding is a major asset for the Storm.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 14th, 2008 at 5:20 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.