We’re back from the Olympic Break and most teams have no more than six games left in the regular season. Yet the numbers still continue to fluctuate, especially with teams affected by injuries, deals and more. Let’s take a look.

How do things stand in terms of point differential? Here are the standings using expected full-season wins based on differential.

Team          ExpW    Team          ExpW------------------    ------------------San Antonio   20.1    Connecticut   23.2Seattle       19.9    Detroit       20.4Minnesota     19.7    New York      18.2Los Angeles   18.7    Indiana       17.2Sacramento    16.7    Chicago       16.0Houston       16.3    Washington    11.2Phoenix       15.9    Atlanta        4.6

The Lynx improved their differential in their first game back from the break. If they maintained it and missed the playoffs, only the 2003 Storm and 1998 New York Liberty would have better differentials amongst lottery-bound team. By the way, Phoenix’s record overstates how much the Mercury has struggled this year.

In the East, Chicago is creeping up on Indiana for the last playoff spot. Surprisingly, the Sky’s differential has yet to improve much since the break; it was already much better than Chicago’s record.

Alright, to the leaders in Offensive and Defensive Rating on a per-possession basis.

Team          ORating     Team          DRating---------------------     ---------------------Phoenix         106.2     Indiana          92.6Minnesota       103.7     San Antonio      93.8Connecticut     103.4     Seattle          94.6Detroit         102.0     Los Angeles      94.7New York        100.3     Connecticut      96.8Seattle          99.3     Houston          97.5AVERAGE          98.5     Detroit          97.7Chicago          98.1     Sacramento       98.0San Antonio      98.1     AVERAGE          98.5Sacramento       97.5     Chicago          98.7Los Angeles      97.5     New York         98.9Houston          95.3     Washington       99.9Indiana          93.1     Minnesota       100.0Atlanta          92.5     Atlanta         106.8Washington       91.7     Phoenix         108.0

Not a lot of major movement. On the strength of Saturday’s defensive slugfest in Los Angeles, the Silver Stars moved up into second place in the league in Defensive Rating ahead of the Storm. Chicago’s post-break improvement has come on the defensive end thanks to Sylvia Fowles’ shot-blocking presence in the paint.

With MVP voting underway at WNBA.com, I’m going to focus on the numbers in the MVP race the rest of the season. Here’s a look at the two stats I lend the most credence: Wins Above Replacement Player by my rating system and Net Plus-Minus rating, as tracked by Paul Swanson of the Lynx. I’ve included the top 10 by WARP as well as a few other players that deserve to be part of the discussion in no small part because of their excellent net plus-minus ratings. Their WARP rank is in parentheses.

Player              Tm   WARP  Net +/-  Rk------------------------------------------Candace Parker     LAS    8.2   +12.6    5Diana Taurasi      PHO    7.3   + 8.8   18Lindsay Whalen     CON    7.0   + 0.4   65Lisa Leslie        LAS    6.5   + 4.2   44Sophia Young       SAS    6.3   +15.8    2Lauren Jackson     SEA    5.6   +12.8    4Candice Dupree     CHI    5.5   + 8.3   20Jia Perkins        CHI    5.4   +10.0   12Becky Hammon       SAS    5.4   + 3.6   48Candice Wiggins    MIN    5.1   + 9.1   17

Player              Tm   WARP  Net +/-  Rk------------------------------------------Asjha Jones (11)   CON    4.9   +10.2   11S. Augustus (16)   MIN    4.1   +15.5    3Sue Bird (22)      SEA    3.4   +20.3    1

Some thoughts:

We’ll see how much the silly notion that a rookie shouldn’t win hurts Candace Parker, but statistically there’s no argument against her candidacy.

Lindsay Whalen is an interesting case. Her individual numbers are terrific, and I’ve been her biggest supporter. However, the Sun has played nearly as well without Whalen as with her, as evidenced by yesterday’s win over the Storm. Asjha Jones has been Connecticut’s most important player from this perspective, and stepped up yesterday. I’m not sure I’m ready to put Jones on my ballot, but I’ve dropped Whalen.

The other player who suffers by contrast to her teammate in this analysis is Becky Hammon. It’s hard to justify that Hammon has been more valuable to the Silver Stars than Sophia Young this season.

Don’t write off Jia Perkins, who comes out very well by both measures. If the Sky makes the playoffs, I could see a fifth-place vote for her.

Sue Bird’s individual stats still aren’t terrific, but net plus-minus reveals how valuable she has been to the Storm. Lauren Jackson’s net plus-minus was actually better when she first left the team, but the Storm’s play without her has lowered this number.

This entry was posted on Monday, September 1st, 2008 at 7:11 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.