With every team save San Antonio having played at least three games and the Storm with five – more than 1/7 of the season – already in the books, it’s time to take our first check of the advanced statistics for the 2009 WNBA season. There are some surprises in the early going. Let’s start, as usual, with Offensive and Defensive Ratings – points scored and allowed per 100 possessions.

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota     113.9     Detroit        88.5
Phoenix       110.8     Washington     91.1
Sacramento    105.0     Connecticut    92.8
Chicago       101.3     Atlanta        92.9
Seattle       100.4     Seattle        94.7
Washington     99.9     New York       95.7
AVERAGE        98.1     AVERAGE        98.1
Indiana        97.3     Los Angeles    98.5
San Antonio    94.2     Indiana        99.0
Detroit        92.0     San Antonio    99.1
Atlanta        90.1     Minnesota     100.9
Connecticut    89.1     Chicago       101.8
New York       87.5     Sacramento    107.7
Los Angeles    85.6     Phoenix       107.9

Now, opponent is a big factor this early in the season, and I suspect two games against Phoenix help explain why the Sacramento Monarchs are 12th out of 13 teams in defense. Still, there are some interesting early trends. My WNBA projection system (to be unveiled shortly) indicated Atlanta could be dominant on defense, and the Dream has been awfully good in the early going for a team that had one of the worst defenses in league history a year ago. The Minnesota Lynx seem poised to emerge as the league’s best offense behind their young stars.

It’s interesting that few teams have been balanced thus far. The Storm and the Washington Mystics are the only teams who are better than average on both offense and defense. There’s a lot of talent near the bottom of the Offensive Rating rankings. I don’t think anyone expected the L.A. Sparks to struggle to score as they have so far, while Connecticut, New York and Detroit have also been amongst the league’s best offenses in recent seasons. We’ll see if that evens out as we get a larger sample to consider.

Next, let’s take a look at the fastest and slowest teams in terms of possessions per 40 minutes.

Team           Pace
-------------------
Phoenix        80.3
Minnesota      79.1
Atlanta        77.7
Washington     77.5
Los Angeles    76.9
New York       76.6
Detroit        76.3
AVERAGE        76.2
Chicago        75.8
San Antonio    75.5
Sacramento     75.5
Connecticut    74.0
Indiana        73.8
Seattle        71.9

Would you look at that? The Mercury, playing at the league’s fastest pace. Who would have thunk it? Minnesota isn’t far behind. Meanwhile, the Storm is playing by far the league’s slowest pace thus far. Veronica e-mailed a couple weeks ago to ask about the Storm’s pace and wondering whether it would be faster this season. I don’t think that will be the case, and obviously it hasn’t been so far. Brian Agler is most comfortable playing a half-court game, and it works well with the Storm’s terrific defense. The team will be opportunistic in looking for chances to run, but will generally favor a controlled pace.

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Minnesota      26.2     Washington     26.0
Seattle        22.1     Detroit        18.1
Phoenix        19.8     Chicago        16.3
Sacramento     13.6     Indiana        15.9
San Antonio    12.5     Atlanta        14.8
Los Angeles     8.0     Connecticut    14.0
                        New York        9.9

The expected Wins (based on point differential, prorated to a full 34-game schedule) standings look bizarre in the early going. 2008 playoff teams hold the last two spots in the East and the bottom three places in the West. Surely we’ll see things settle down, but Minnesota, Washington and the Storm have stood out so far. Based on schedule strength (with four of five games on the road), the early Hollinger Power Rankings tracked by Petrel at the RebKell boards have the Storm a close number two behind Washington.

Let’s finish up by looking at some player stats. This year, instead of using the PER rating, I’ll be tracking my own WARP system, which includes both a per-minute Winning Percentage (which attempts to measure what a team with four average teammates plus the player in question would play like) and Wins Above Replacement Player to measure total value. The early leaderboard features a Lynx player at the top, but not Player of the Week Seimone Augustus (just off the list at .704 winning percentage and 0.9 WARP).

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Charde Houston      MIN   .821    1.0
Alana Beard         WAS   .798    0.7
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .794    1.1
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .774    1.0
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .768    1.5
Janel McCarville    NYL   .768    0.7
Lindsay Whalen      CON   .766    0.9
Nicole Powell       SAC   .765    1.0
Matee Ajavon        WAS   .756    0.4
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .746    0.9

Charde Houston was something of a surprise starter for Minnesota, but she’s been terrific in the early going, posting a .696 True Shooting Percentage. Nicky Anosike has also been effective for the Lynx at both ends of the floor. Lauren Jackson is just a hair behind the leaders and has the most WARP thanks to the Storm’s busy schedule, while 2008 WARP favorite Sancho Lyttle is again amongst the top 10.

This entry was posted on Monday, June 15th, 2009 at 2:30 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.