Like a good chunk of the viewing audience, I tuned in to last night’s L.A.-Phoenix matchup on NBA TV to see Candace Parker’s 2009 debut. Alas, the league’s reigning MVP was overshadowed in the second half by the Mercury’s 13-0 run that spanned the third and fourth quarters and turned a close game into a rout. Q from Rethinking Basketball was also watching and blogged about the game, though I think he understated how overwhelmed the Sparks looked in that stretch. They seemed to mentally fatigue from the pressure of having to get back all game long, committing inexplicable turnovers that turned into Phoenix layups at the other end.

Add in a win over the Storm early in the week and the Mercury now stands alone atop the Western Conference, a position confirmed by Phoenix’s point differential. Let’s take a look at the advanced stats for the Mercury and the rest of the league.

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       108.9     Indiana        89.8
Minnesota     104.8     Connecticut    93.3
Seattle       103.3     New York       94.6
Chicago        99.8     Washington     96.9
AVERAGE        99.1     Los Angeles    98.1
Indiana        98.8     San Antonio    98.1
Atlanta        98.2     Atlanta        99.1
Washington     97.2     AVERAGE        99.1
Connecticut    97.1     Seattle        99.4
Sacramento     96.3     Detroit       100.3
San Antonio    96.0     Minnesota     101.2
Los Angeles    94.8     Sacramento    102.4
Detroit        94.3     Phoenix       105.8
New York       93.3     Chicago       105.9

The Mercury remains in a familiar position atop the league in Offensive Rating, and no one else is close. In fact, in terms of pure points per 100 possessions, this year’s Mercury ranks behind only the 2000 Houston Comets (110.2 Offensive Rating) in the history of the WNBA. Even relative to league average, this has been the best offense of the Phoenix up-tempo era thanks to contributions from Temeka Johnson and DeWanna Bonner and Cappie Pondexter’s improved playmaking. You might be surprised to learn that the previous leader of that group was Paul Westhead’s first Mercury team, the 2006 squad that failed to make the playoffs, not the championship squad. Thus the importance of defense, and there the Mercury is closer to last year and 2006 than 2007. However, the offense might be good enough to carry Phoenix this year.

Balance remains hard to come by in the league. The only team in the top 10 in both offense and defense is the Indiana Fever, winners of eight straight. We also see teams flip-flopped from last year, with Connecticut and New York both winning with defense and the Storm reliant on its offense. While the schedule is a factor – six of the team’s 10 games have come against other top-five offenses – the Storm’s defense has to be something of a concern right now.

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.2     Indiana        22.4
Seattle        19.6     Connecticut    21.4
Minnesota      19.5     Washington     17.6
Los Angeles    15.6     New York       17.4
San Antonio    15.3     Atlanta        15.5
Sacramento     10.8     Detroit        12.5
                        Connecticut    10.8

Last week, the Fever was still well behind the leaders in expected wins based on point differential, but with the other top teams faltering, Indiana is now the league’s best team by this measure. The interesting note is how different things look with the inclusion of strength of schedule, per Petrel’s version of the WNBA Hollinger Power Rankings. There, the Storm shoots to the top, with Connecticut in second and Phoenix – which has feasted on a home-heavy schedule – all the way down in sixth. We’ll see how things even up as the Storm plays a long homestand and the Mercury gets more road games.

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .759    3.2
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .808    3.2
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .783    3.0
Tamika Catchings    IND   .768    2.9
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .734    2.4
Cappie Pondexter    PHO   .653    2.4
Jia Perkins         CHI   .716    2.4
Shameka Christon    NYL   .735    2.0
Charde Houston      MIN   .675    1.7
Alana Beard         WAS   .641    1.7

On the strength of the Mercury’s 12 games to the Storm’s 10, Diana Taurasi has a narrow advantage over Lauren Jackson as the league’s most valuable player by WARP. (Incidentally, did anyone else catch Taurasi being called a former MVP during the broadcast? A little premature on that one.)

This week’s big mover is the Liberty’s Shameka Christon, who had 25 points on 6-0f-8 shooting (plus 11-of-11 from the free-throw line) in a win over Detroit. Never a favorite of the advanced stats. Christon is shooting an even 50 percent both from the field and downtown. While the latter seems more fluky, Christon actually shot better on threes than twos a year ago. It will be interesting to see if she can sustain that efficiency. Christon has also gotten shockingly more sure-handed, halving her turnover rate from 12.1 percent of her possessions a year ago to 6.1 percent this year, second in the league to L.A.’s Kristi Harrower amongst regulars.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 6th, 2009 at 11:46 am and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.