Today is, apparently, “Embrace Your Geekness” Day – and yes, there is a day for everything. As a result, I’m going to embrace my own stat geekness with the advanced WNBA statistics. There have not been many major changes in the numbers in the past week. For the Storm, two wins and a loss ended up keeping things about even with where they were last Monday. Nonetheless, there are still some interesting tidbits in the stats, so let’s get right to them.
OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE RATINGS
Team ORtg Team DRtg
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Phoenix 109.7 Indiana 88.4
Minnesota 104.0 Connecticut 92.6
Seattle 102.4 New York 93.7
Indiana 100.0 Los Angeles 96.2
Chicago 98.8 Washington 96.6
AVERAGE 98.7 Atlanta 97.0
Sacramento 98.4 San Antonio 97.1
Washington 97.6 Seattle 98.3
Atlanta 96.1 AVERAGE 98.7
San Antonio 95.8 Detroit 99.2
Connecticut 95.1 Minnesota 102.0
Detroit 94.3 Sacramento 102.7
Los Angeles 93.6 Phoenix 105.7
New York 91.7 Chicago 107.8
A big mover here is the WNBA’s hottest team, the Indiana Fever. On the strength of a blowout win against the Sylvia Fowles-less Chicago Sky, the Fever improved to fourth in the league in Offensive Rating. Let’s make it simple: If Indiana’s offense stays top five in the WNBA, the Fever will be the favorites to win the championship because the team’s defense is so good.
With the Monarchs making a coaching change yesterday, replacing Jenny Boucek, it’s interesting to point out again that the Sacramento defense is nowhere near the juggernaut it was in the “white-line defense” era. The million-dollar question is whether that related to coaching or personnel and the loss of Yolanda Griffith in particular. We’ll know more after John Whisenant has a chance to coach the squad.
EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS
Team Exp. W Team Exp. W
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Phoenix 21.5 Indiana 24.8
Seattle 20.6 Connecticut 19.8
Minnesota 18.4 Washington 18.5
Los Angeles 15.6 New York 16.6
San Antonio 15.4 Atlanta 16.0
Sacramento 12.0 Detroit 13.2
Chicago 9.2
The Fever continues to open up a sizable lead over the rest of the league in point differential and the resulting Expected Wins. In both conferences, we see a team being outscored that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. In the East, that might well be the Sky despite the league’s worst point differential. A lot of that is due to Fowles’ absence, of course, but Chicago’s win last night at KeyArena continued a bizarre trend. The Sky is 7-1 in games decided by nine points or fewer and has no wins by double-digits but six larger losses.
WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Nicky Anosike MIN .775 3.8
Lauren Jackson SEA .771 3.8
Diana Taurasi PHO .760 3.7
Tamika Catchings IND .780 3.1
Jia Perkins CHI .695 2.9
Cappie Pondexter PHO .656 2.8
Sancho Lyttle ATL .687 2.5
Charde Houston MIN .696 2.3
Becky Hammon SAS .712 2.3
Shameka Christon NYL .689 2.2
With Lauren Jackson having an off week, Nicky Anosike has passed her by decimal points as the league’s leader in WARP. This might seem strange, given Anosike’s low profile and rather pedestrian scoring averages (13.5 ppg). Look deeper and there’s a lot to recommend Anosike beyond the lengthy list of spots amongst the league leaders on her playerfile. First, Anosike is very efficient as a scorer, shooting 52.5 percent from the field and attempting more free throws than any player in the league. Second, she’s a factor as a passer. She averages 3.0 assists per game; the only pure post players to reach that mark in league history are Elena Baranova and Lisa Leslie. Finally, there’s the matter of steals. Anosike is averaging 3.0 steals per game, which would be the fourth time in WNBA history a player reaches that mark if Anosike is able to keep it up. Naturally, those aren’t 6-3 centers. Anosike’s versatility really compares to players like Tamika Catchings and Candace Parker. Her profile does tend to match what the WARP system rewards, particularly the steals, but the net plus-minus statistics tracked by the Lynx’s Paul Swanson (.PDF) show her amongst the league leaders as well. She rightfully belongs amongst the WNBA’s top players.
Elsewhere, Becky Hammon enters the top 10 for the first time after missing two games to play for the Russian National Team. On a per-minute basis, she’s been as good as almost anyone in the league this season thanks to using a ton of possessions and averaging a career-high 2.1 steals per game.
ROOKIE WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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DeWanna Bonner PHO .636 1.6
Angel McCoughtry ATL .620 1.2
Courtney Paris SAC .669 0.7
Kristi Toliver CHI .558 0.6
Q. Hollingsworth MIN .491 0.3
Marissa Coleman WAS .511 0.3
Renee Montgomery MIN .419 0.1
Shavonte Zellous DET .417 0.1
Chante Black CON .369 -0.2
Briann January IND .369 -0.2
Kia Vaughan NYL .238 -0.4
Lastly this week, with rookies making noise around the league, let’s take an extended look at what the numbers have to say about the rookies. I’ve listed the top 11 picks in the 2009 Draft ranked by WARP.
It doesn’t take advanced statistics to know DeWanna Bonner is the favorite for Rookie of the Year, but they confirm how well the Mercury’s rookie has played. The surprises start with Courtney Paris. Even before consecutive breakout games late last week, Paris’ per-minute performance was strong, and Sacramento is +16.5 points per 40 minutes with Paris on the floor per Swanson’s numbers. I know there are concerns about her stamina and ability to keep up with quicker players, but the best thing Whisenant can do to turn the season around for the Monarchs is to start giving Paris a lot of the minutes that have been going to 2008 first-round pick Laura Harper, who has cooled after a strong start. After all, the best game of her career came against Phoenix. If Paris can keep up with the Mercury, she can run with anyone.
Kristi Toliver’s numbers got a huge, huge boost from last night’s 22-point, seven-assist outing. She’s been very streaky this season (she was 0-of-9 from the field in the Sky’s previous game), but the talent is there. What impressed me as much as the long three-pointers was that Toliver did a good job of finding people and using her ability to score to open things up for her teammates on the pick-and-roll. That’s the question mark about her game, not the shooting. A little lower, Toliver’s college teammate Marissa Coleman has played perfectly well and might be challenging for Rookie of the Year had she stayed healthy.
Shavonte Zellous‘ stat line is bizarre. She’s using a whopping 26.3 percent of Detroit’s possessions but is shooting 32.2 percent from the field. The saving grace for Zellous’ efficiency has been 62 free-throw attempts in 245 minutes. Also, Zellous’ turnover-to-assist ratio – not assist-to-turnover, mind you – has been four to one.
Briann January is getting rave reviews for her play, and understandably so. She’s splitting minutes at the point for the league’s best team. January will have to start making some more shots, having made just 23.1 percent of her threes and 28.6 percent of her attempts inside the arc so far this season.
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