The WNBA announced reserves for the 2009 All-Star Game bright and early this morning, at least out here on the West Coast. The timing seems ideal to tailor this week’s advanced statistics update to look at how the coaches did in their respective conferences, starting here in the West, before we get to the team numbers.
WEST RESERVES
Ps Player Tm Win% WARP Rk
---------------------------------------------
G Diana Taurasi PHO .774 4.1 2
G Cappie Pondexter PHO .668 3.4 5
F Charde Houston MIN .676 2.7 11
F Sophia Young SAS .515 1.3 27
F Tina Thompson LAL .429 0.2 68
C Nicky Anosike MIN .773 4.4 1
WEST ALSO-RANS
Ps Player Tm Win% WARP Rk
---------------------------------------------
G Tanisha Wright SEA .587 2.2 12
F Nicole Powell SAC .588 1.9 14
F DeWanna Bonner PHO .636 1.8 18
G Betty Lennox LAS .601 1.4 26
F Le'Coe Willingham PHO .533 1.1 33
By my numbers, the best player left off the Western Conference All-Star squad* was the Storm’s own Tanisha Wright. As I wrote about last week, Wright has really been playing phenomenal basketball recently. She’s developed into an efficient scorer and sure-handed ballhandler to go along with her phenomenal defense, and the numbers indicate there’s a strong case for her to go to Connecticut. At the same time, I totally understand if coaches were reluctant to reward the Storm with a fourth All-Star after having three players voted into the starting lineup, and Wright has flown largely under the radar this season.
My philosophy when it comes to the All-Star Game is not one of total adherence to performance in the given season. For one, it tends to encourage flukes (like Adrian Williams-Strong making the All-Star team, a nice honor for her but one out of place with the rest of her WNBA career). For another, it implies performance in the second half of the season is irrelevant, not to mention seasons without an All-Star Game, which seems silly to me. In the case of Sophia Young, what she’s accomplished over the course of the career justifiably outweighs a slow start to this season. Tina Thompson is in much more on the strength of her career accolades, as she has yet to play to her usual level in her first season in L.A.
The most important thing for me in the West was that the two Lynx sophomores get rewarded for their play, and the coaches got that one. Well done.
*Note I did not say “snubbed.” Snub may be the single most overused term in the English language, at least at All-Star time. There are more players who are supposedly snubbed than there are spots on the team.
EAST RESERVES
Ps Player Tm Win% WARP Rk
---------------------------------------------
G Jia Perkins CHI .686 3.2 7
G Katie Smith DET .474 0.7 43
F Shameka Christon NYL .733 3.1 8
F Sancho Lyttle ATL .683 3.1 9
F Asjha Jones CON .532 1.4 24
C Erika DeSouza ATL .671 3.0 1
EAST ALSO-RANS
Ps Player Tm Win% WARP Rk
---------------------------------------------
C Janel McCarville NYL .636 1.9 15
G Lindsay Whalen CON .585 1.9 17
C Tammy Sutton-Brown IND .591 1.8 19
G Erin Phillips CON .586 1.7 21
F Crystal Langhorne WAS .595 1.6 22
Similar to the Lynx players in the West, I was most adamant about the Dream’s frontcourt duo of Sancho Lyttle and Erika DeSouza – both of them in the league’s top 10 in WARP so far this seson – getting picked in the East. Again, good work, as the coaches recognized up-and-coming stars insted of automatically voting for the same old players.
That Katie Smith ranks so poorly surprised me. She’s hurt by Detroit’s slide on defense, as well as a lack of rebounds and a surprising proneness to turnovers this season. The other question mark is Asjha Jones, representing the hometown Sun. Jones wasn’t a bad pick, but I would have given that spot to her teammate Lindsay Whalen, who has still been one of the top handful of point guards in the league despite no’t playing anywhere near her usual level.
Overall, the coaches did a fine job and I look forward to seeing a number of first-time All-Stars this Saturday in Connecticut. That considered, let’s move on to the team numbers.
OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS
Team ORtg Team DRtg
------------------- -------------------
Phoenix 110.8 Indiana 89.9
Minnesota 103.1 Connecticut 91.5
Seattle 101.1 New York 94.3
Indiana 99.7 Washington 97.1
Chicago 99.5 Seattle 97.2
AVERAGE 98.9 Los Angeles 97.3
Washington 98.0 Atlanta 98.1
Atlanta 97.8 Detroit 98.3
Sacramento 96.7 AVERAGE 98.9
San Antonio 96.1 San Antonio 99.1
Connecticut 96.1 Minnesota 103.0
Detroit 95.0 Sacramento 103.6
Los Angeles 93.8 Phoenix 104.8
New York 92.8 Chicago 106.9
At what point do we start to wonder whether this year’s Phoenix Mercury might be the best offense the WNBA has ever seen? Right now, the Mercury is averaging 11.9 more points per 100 possessions than league average, which would narrowly surpass the 2000 Houston Comets (+11.6) as the best offense in league history. While Phoenix will have to go on the road more frequently in the second half, the Mercury will also have the luxury of newly-added Penny Taylor, only one of the most efficient scorers in WNBA history. Look out.
The Storm’s offense has slumped a bit the past week with Lauren Jackson sidelined, but the team still has a healthy cushion for ranking in the league’s top three. Note also that the Storm has moved up to fifth in the league in defense. I’ll have more on that topic later today or tomorrow.
EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS
Team Exp. W Team Exp. W
------------------- -------------------
Phoenix 22.7 Indiana 23.9
Seattle 20.8 Connecticut 21.2
Minnesota 17.1 Washington 18.3
Los Angeles 14.7 New York 16.8
San Antonio 14.4 Atlanta 16.5
Sacramento 10.4 Detroit 14.1
Chicago 10.2
Why do I believe in the value of looking at the Expected Wins standings based on point differential? Look at the East, where there is a huge disparity between the standings on WNBA.com and what we see above. Chicago is 8-8 despite the league’s worst point differential, and though Sylvia Fowles‘ absence and the resulting blowouts didn’t help, the Sky has gone 6-0 in games decided by eight points or fewer, a trend the team will be hard-pressed to keep up the rest of the season. Meanwhile, New York is 5-8 but has nearly played opponents even over the season. The Liberty keeps playing close games, and while two of the last three have been wins, things have yet to entirely even out. Lastly, Connecticut has been a much closer challenger to Indiana in the East than its record would indicate, a point reinforced by yesterday’s streak-busting win at Mohegan Sun.
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Just curious — where does Lindsey Harding rank in your WARP ratings? I would say she’s probably been the best point guard in the East this season…
And Tina Thompson’s WARP?
I think you make a great point about basing all-star selections on more than just the current season, especially when that is only based on less than 15 games for most players. Might the WNBA might be better off sticking their all-star game after the season like the NFL does, given that there are so few games to judge players on?
Harding has 1.2 WARP, so No. 31 overall and two spots away from the list of also-rans. Comparing her and Whalen, their offensive numbers are very similar. Whalen gets the nod because of her rebounding and getting some credit for the Sun’s superior shot defense. PER has a similar evaluation of the two players, for what it’s worth.
I think for everybody but the NFL, playing the All-Star Game midseason is a necessary evil at worst. The loss in terms of not always selecting the best or most deserving players is more than offset by the marketing value, the time off for non-All-Stars and the difficulty in getting players to participate after the season.