A week away, the Wall Street Journal’s relatively new and analytical sports section ran a feature in “The Count” looking at scoring in the WNBA. As if on cue, the WNBA’s league-wide Offensive Rating surged forward and hit a milestone last week – an even 100.0 points per 100 possessions around the league. I’ve been doing weekly ratings for the last couple of years now, and I can’t remember ever seeing the league average in triple digits. For comparison, the league’s Offensive Rating was 98.9 points per 100 possessions a year ago and topped out at 99.1 in 2006.

The WSJ pointed to rule changes – specifically, the 24-second shot clock – which have increased the pace of play, but the expectation in most quarters was that a faster game would also be a less efficient one. That instead the WNBA is scoring more efficiently than ever before is testament to the growing level of talent in the league.

That being said, let’s check out the team stats just before this week’s schedule kicks off with Indiana visiting Los Angeles.

OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS

Team           ORtg     Team           DRtg
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix       108.8     Indiana        93.2
Minnesota     104.2     Connecticut    96.3
Indiana       102.0     Los Angeles    96.9
Seattle       101.6     Atlanta        97.7
Atlanta       100.3     New York       98.3
Connecticut   100.2     Seattle        98.8
AVERAGE       100.0     Washington     99.3
San Antonio    98.8     Detroit        99.3
Chicago        98.7     AVERAGE       100.0
Sacramento     98.2     San Antonio   100.8
Washington     97.8     Minnesota     104.0
Detroit        97.1     Sacramento    104.2
New York       96.6     Chicago       104.6
Los Angeles    92.2     Phoenix       105.0

The big mover in terms of Offensive Rating is Connecticut. Scoring 96 points, as the Sun did in yesterday’s win over Washington, will do that. However, I think we’re also seeing a Connecticut team in evolution. After taking some time to adjust to the WNBA game, Latvian rookie Anete Jekabsone-Zogota has moved into the starting lineup and has scored double-figures in four of the last five games, giving the Sun more perimeter punch. With Connecticut also second in the league in Defensive Rating, the Sun has to be considered Indiana’s toughest competition in the Eastern Conference.

There’s less positive news for the Phoenix Mercury, which despite an overtime win in Seattle on Tuesday has slipped into last place in the league defensively. As talented as Phoenix is at the offensive end – and with Penny Taylor back, I’m willing to believe this is the best offense the league has ever seen – the Mercury will have to defend at least adequately to match 2007’s playoff run.

EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS

Team         Exp. W     Team         Exp. W
-------------------     -------------------
Phoenix        20.7     Indiana        23.2
Seattle        19.6     Connecticut    20.5
Minnesota      16.6     Atlanta        18.9
San Antonio    15.7     Washington     16.7
Los Angeles    14.6     New York       15.9
Sacramento     11.2     Detroit        15.1
                        Chicago        11.9

The most interesting development in terms of point differential is probably the Fever opening up a sizable advantage over the Mercury in the wake of Saturday’s showdown win. Right now, Indiana – which combines the league’s third-best offense with its best defense – has to be considered the favorites to win the WNBA championship.

The heartbreak continues for the New York Liberty, which lost by one point to the Storm on Saturday at KeyArena, falling to 2-7 in games decided by six points or fewer. That’s how a team that has been outscored by but 20 points in 21 games has a 7-14 record.

WARP LEADERS

Player               Tm   Win%   WARP
-------------------------------------
Nicky Anosike       MIN   .760    5.7
Lauren Jackson      SEA   .736    5.4
Becky Hammon        SAS   .748    5.4
Diana Taurasi       PHO   .735    5.2
Tamika Catchings    IND   .724    5.1
Jia Perkins         CHI   .694    4.5
Shameka Christon    NYL   .649    3.8
Sancho Lyttle       ATL   .669    3.8
Cappie Pondexter    PHO   .610    3.7
Janel McCarville    NYL   .661    3.6

Speaking of the Liberty, Janel McCarville replaces Charde Houston in our WARP top 10 this week, giving New York two players in the top 10 – a feat matched only by West-leading Phoenix. So why hasn’t the Liberty been more effective, even factoring out the bad luck? Well, just two other New York players (Tiffany Jackson and Loree Moore) rate above replacement level, and that’s too much to overcome. There’s other talent for the Liberty, but those players (Cathrine Kraayeveld, for one) are suffering through off seasons.

Higher on the list, Becky Hammon is creeping closer to the league’s top ranking. What’s funny is Hammon’s numbers are far, far better than they were two seasons ago when she finished second to Lauren Jackson in MVP voting. The Silver Stars aren’t as strong this year as they were in 2007, but Hammon has forced her way into the MVP discussion, as Q noted in breaking down her standing amongst the league’s best point guards.

This entry was posted on Monday, August 10th, 2009 at 6:27 pm and is filed under WNBA, stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.