As we enter the final week of the WNBA’s regular season, there is still some movement in the advanced stats. Most notably, the league’s Offensive Rating continues to creep ever higher, with teams around the league now averaging a record 100.5 points per 100 possessions. Whether it is because of the opportunity to move back training camp and have everyone around, the culmination of rules changes (and reinterpretations, in the case of hand-checking) designed to emphasize offense or simply the rising talent level around the league, the WNBA has never before played such an exciting, entertaining brand of basketball.
OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE RATINGS
Team ORtg Team DRtg
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Phoenix 110.1 Indiana 94.3
Minnesota 103.9 Seattle 96.9
San Antonio 101.9 Los Angeles 97.8
Atlanta 101.7 Atlanta 98.6
Chicago 100.8 Washington 98.7
AVERAGE 100.5 New York 98.8
Sacramento 100.0 Connecticut 99.0
Seattle 99.8 Detroit 99.5
Indiana 99.6 AVERAGE 100.5
Connecticut 99.3 Sacramento 103.3
Detroit 99.2 San Antonio 103.5
New York 96.9 Minnesota 104.9
Washington 96.5 Chicago 105.3
Los Angeles 96.1 Phoenix 106.0
If the Phoenix maintains its current pace – and the Mercury does have something to play for this week, home-court advantage in a potential Finals matchup with Indiana – the team will join the 2000 Houston Comets as the only in WNBA history to average at least 110 points per 100 possessions. Moving up this week are the San Antonio Silver Stars, who have found unexpected scoring punch during a late playoff push that still has them in control of their own destiny for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.
Headed the other direction: the Storm and the Indiana Fever, in both cases due to injuries to star players. Without Katie Douglas, the Fever has reverted to its old all-D, no-offense style. The Storm’s offense has had its moments since Lauren Jackson was sidelined by a back injury, but turnovers have taken a toll on the team’s efficiency. At the same time, the Storm’s defense has surged into second in the league behind only Indiana.
EXPECTED WINS STANDINGS
Team Exp. W Team Exp. W
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Phoenix 21.2 Indiana 21.2
Seattle 19.3 Atlanta 19.0
Los Angeles 16.8 Connecticut 17.4
San Antonio 15.6 Detroit 16.7
Minnesota 15.3 New York 15.9
Sacramento 13.7 Washington 15.8
Chicago 12.9
The Fever and the Mercury are in essentially a flat-footed tie in terms of point differential (Indiana is +116 over 31 games, Phoenix +120 over 32). The Pythagorean method, which emphasizes the fact that a four-point differential is different in a 90-86 game than an 80-76 one, has the lower-scoring Fever comfortably ahead. It is possible, depending upon the results of the final week, that just four teams finish with positive scoring margins.
WARP LEADERS
Player Tm Win% WARP
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Tamika Catchings IND .730 7.9
Nicky Anosike MIN .742 7.3
Lauren Jackson SEA .733 6.7
Diana Taurasi PHO .707 6.7
Becky Hammon SAS .677 6.5
Janel McCarville NYL .675 5.3
Cappie Pondexter PHO .615 5.2
Sancho Lyttle ATL .648 5.2
Lindsay Whalen CON .618 4.9
Erika de Souza ATL .631 4.8
With injuries striking other leaders – Nicky Anosike sat out Saturday with a sore left knee, joining Jackson on the sidelines – it appears Tamika Catchings will lead the league in WARP. This is hardly unfamiliar territory for Catchings, a perennial favorite of the numbers above and beyond her stellar reputation in the league. Elsewhere, Cappie Pondexter used a good week to surge all the way from out of the top 10 to seventh in the WNBA.
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