We’re almost a third of the way through the WNBA season, hard as that may be to believe, with most teams having played about 10 games. That makes this a good time for a check of the numbers. As always, check out the Statistical Analysis Primer for more on how they’re calculated and what they mean.

OFFENSIVE RATING

Team          ORating---------------------Indiana         106.7Los Angeles     104.6Seattle         104.3Phoenix         102.8Sacramento       98.9Connecticut      97.7New York         97.4Chicago          97.1Minnesota        96.8Detroit          96.5San Antonio      95.8Washington       92.8Houston          88.7

The Fever continues to lead the league in offense, a big surprise from a team that ranked near the bottom last season. Last year’s leading offense, Phoenix, has not been as strong this year, while Connecticut has fallen way off with the loss of Taj McWilliams-Franklin and slow starts from holdover players. New York has slid as the three-pointers that went in at an unsustainable clip early in the season have started going out. I was surprised to see San Antonio’s offense so low given how well Becky Hammon has played this season.

DEFENSIVE RATING

Team          DRating---------------------Detroit          89.7Sacramento       89.9Indiana          91.7New York         96.2San Antonio      96.3Phoenix          98.2Connecticut      98.8Chicago          98.8Seattle         101.3Los Angeles     101.8Minnesota       105.5Houston         107.9

Detroit and Sacramento have had dominant defenses for years, and nothing has changed. Connecticut has taken an even bigger hit on defense after ranking No. 2 a year ago. That’s not a surprise – Margo Dydek has struggled this year with her back and is never mobile in the best of circumstances, and Erika De Souza hasn’t been able to pick up for Dydek after a fast start.

Bet you’re suprised to see how good Phoenix is on defense.

If you’re looking for the reason the Storm has been inconsistent, you probably need to start at the defensive end of the floor, where Seattle is significantly below average. Here’s how the Storm defense has rated compared to league average under Anne Donovan:

2003: +0.3 (6/14)
2004: +2.2 (2/13)
2005: +0.1 (5/13)
2006: -0.9 (8/14)
2007: -2.9 (10/13)

The championship season was easily the best the Storm has been on defense, and the loss of players like Tully Bevilaqua, Adia Barnes, Sheri Sam and Kamila Vodichkova was felt the next season. Last year saw another slide, but this year the defense has been much worse in the early going.

POINT DIFFERENTIAL

If you go by point differential and expected wins, here’s what the standings would look like in each conference (wins projected to 34 games):

WEST          ExpW   EAST          ExpW------------------   ------------------Sacramento    25.1   Indiana       28.8Phoenix       20.0   Detroit       23.5Los Angeles   18.6   New York      17.6Seattle       17.9   Chicago       15.5San Antonio   16.3   Connecticut   15.4Minnesota     11.6   Washington     9.9Houston        1.9

While the East has, at worst, two of the best three teams in the league, there isn’t a lot of depth to the conference until or unless the Sun gets going. Barring that, it looks like an Indy-Detroit showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals. The West is significantly more interesting.

At the individual level, I also took a quick look at the PER leaders in the league:

Player      Tm   PER--------------------Jackson    SEA  35.9Catchings  IND  31.9Taurasi    PHO  27.6Brunson    SAC  26.1Augustus   MIN  25.9

Yeah, LJ is awesome. Rebekkah Brunson is off to a great start and should be an All-Star reserve if there’s any justice.

This entry was posted on Monday, June 18th, 2007 at 5:57 pm and is filed under stats. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.