Ekaterinburg Tops Russian Table

Posted on Monday, March 19th, 2012 at 3:47 pm by Kevin Pelton

This weekend marked the conclusion of the Russian SuperLeague regular season, and the matchup between UMMC Ekaterinburg and Sparta&K Moscow Region Sunday in Ekaterinburg decided first place. Down four at halftime, UMMC controlled the second half to win, 75-68. Sue Bird had 10 points and eight assists as Ekaterinburg outscored her former team, Sparta&K, by 20 points with her on the floor. UMMC was also +12 in Svetlana Abrosimova’s eight minutes of action. Sandrine Gruda scored 23 points and Candace Parker (11) and Deanna Nolan (10) also reached double figures. Candice Dupree led Sparta&K with 13 points.

UMMC Ekaterinburg finished the year 17-1, that lone loss coming by two points at Sparta&K and will be the top seed when the SuperLeague playoffs start on April 5. Between now and then, Ekaterinburg and other top teams around the continent will prepare for the EuroLeague Final Eight starting next Wednesday in Istanbul.

Previously, UMMC Ekaterinburg topped Nadezhda 92-72 on March 8 to claim its fourth consecutive Cup of Russia. Sue Bird had nine points and seven assists and Ekaterinburg got more than enough scoring from the group of Gruda (19 points, eight boards), Nolan (18), Parker (17 points, nine boards) and Maria Stepanova (15). According to Abrosimova’s Twitter, Bird was named MVP of the competition.

Still two weeks to play in Spain, but Ros Casares Valencia clinched first place in league play with Saturday’s 81-53 blowout win over Cadi La’Seu. Ann Wauters led the way with 25 points, seven boards and four assists. Lauren Jackson added a double-double (13 points, 10 rebounds), Sancho Lyttle scored 14 points and Maya Moore had seven points, seven boards and five assists. Jana Vesela scored four points off the bench.

Ros Casares was toppled 68-57 last Sunday by rival Perfumerias Avenida in the finals of La Copa de la Reina, the Spanish Cup. Erika De Souza powered the way with 17 points and 13 rebounds for Avenida. Moore carried Valencia with 24 points and Wauters had 14 points and 13 rebounds, but nobody else scored double figures. Jackson played just 11 minutes, finishing with three points and five boards, and Lyttle was held to four points and five rebounds.

The WNBL campaign wrapped up last Sunday with the Dandenong Rangers overpowering the Bulleen Boomers by a 94-70 final to take the title. Kath McLeod was named Grand Final MVP on the strength of her 22 points and nine assists, while Jenna O’Hea had 20 points and seven rebounds. Liz Cambage had 22 points and 14 boards in defeat.

Wisla Can-Pack Krakow finished its regular season by hanging on for a 70-68 win over CCC Polkowice. Ewelina Kobryn had 10 points and five assists and Wisla got 18 points from Nicole Powell and 14 more from Erin Phillips to overcome a 26-point outing for Evanthia Maltsi.  Wisla, which finished 25-1, had already clinched first place ahead of 22-4 Polkowice. In the opening round of the PLKK Playoffs, which start Wednesday, Krakow will host LDS Lodz Siemens.

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Postseason Women’s Hoops in Seattle

Posted on Wednesday, March 14th, 2012 at 2:53 pm by Kevin Pelton

With the longest playoff streak in WNBA history (tied with the L.A. Sparks), we know a thing or two about the postseason. So it’s exciting to see both local college hoops teams continuing their campaigns.

The Washington Huskies, who went 17-13 during Kevin McGuff’s first year as head coach, were selected for the WNIT and host Cal Poly tonight at 7 p.m. at Alaska Airlines Arena. The high-scoring Mustangs are led by forward Kristina Santiago, a two-time Big West Player of the Year who averages 22.3 points (good for sixth in D-I) and 10.1 rebounds per game. The winner of tonight’s game will move on to face the winner of Utah and Utah State in the next round.

The Seattle University Redhawks are the school’s first program to participate in a national postseason tournament since Seattle U began the reclassification process to D-I in 2006. Proven Head Coach Joan Bonvicini led the Redhawks to a breakthrough 18-11 record in her third year at the helm, earning Seattle U a spot in the Women’s Basketball Invitational. The Redhawks host North Dakota on Thursday at 7 p.m., and arrive early for a chalk talk/scouting report featuring Seattle U assistant and former Storm player Kristen O’Neill at 6:25.

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NCAA Women’s Tournament Analysis

Posted on Tuesday, March 13th, 2012 at 4:42 pm by Kevin Pelton

Every year, once the brackets for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament are released, I eagerly anticipate Ken Pomeroy’s projections. Using his ratings for each team, along with the Log5 method, Pomeroy projects out the likelihood of each team advancing. This kind of analysis helps us find the favorites, but I also like that it reveals that in the NCAA tournament as in life, nothing as a certainty and everything is a probability.

This season, for what I believe to be the first time anywhere, I’ve been able to break down the women’s tournament in a similar fashion. As my input, I used Jeff Sagarin’s predictor rating, which takes into account score differential and therefore is most accurate at pegging the outcome of future games. Instead of the Log5 method, because of the way Sagarin’s ratings are presented, I used the Pythagorean method (with an exponent of 14) to estimate the odds of each individual game. Ratings are modified for home-court advantage, including partial home court in the case of UConn in Bridgeport, Conn. and Kingston, R.I.; Hampton in Norfolk, Va.; and Stanford in Fresno, Calif.

With that as introduction, a look at each bracket, ranked by likelihood of cutting down the nets in Denver.

DES MOINES REGION

Team               Sd     R32     S16     E8      F4    Final   Champ
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Baylor              1    .998    .952    .882    .739    .570    .276
Tennessee           2    .983    .805    .667    .189    .095    .021
Georgia Tech        4    .969    .676    .077    .030    .008    .001
Delaware            3    .940    .594    .169    .019    .004    .000
Georgetown          5    .807    .296    .021    .006    .001    .000
DePaul              7    .686    .155    .069    .006    .001    .000
Ohio St.            8    .575    .031    .013    .004    .001    .000
Nebraska            6    .533    .221    .046    .004    .001    .000
Kansas             11    .467    .180    .034    .002    .000    .000
Florida             9    .425    .017    .006    .001    .000    .000
BYU                10    .314    .039    .015    .001    .000    .000
Fresno St.         12    .193    .026    .001    .000    .000    .000
Tennessee-Martin   15    .017    .001    .000    .000    .000    .000
Sacred Heart       13    .031    .003    .000    .000    .000    .000
UALR               14    .060    .006    .000    .000    .000    .000
UC Santa Barbara   16    .002    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000

For the most part, this region plays to expectation. The best first-round matchup is actually the 6-11 game, where former Big 12 rivals Kansas and Nebraska should play a competitive game in Little Rock. Home-court advantage won’t help UALR much against Delaware, but could ensure that DePaul advances past BYU before running into Tennessee. Odds are this region will come down to Baylor and Tennessee, and the Lady Bears have already won at Thompson-Boling this season.

FRESNO REGION

Team               Sd     R32     S16     E8      F4    Final   Champ
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Stanford            1    .929    .800    .732    .523    .196    .054
Duke                2    .996    .799    .675    .339    .109    .025
West Virginia       8    .628    .126    .079    .026    .003    .000
Oklahoma            6    .740    .488    .118    .026    .003    .000
St. John's          3    .868    .387    .095    .021    .002    .000
South Carolina      5    .805    .396    .072    .020    .002    .000
Vanderbilt          7    .919    .199    .093    .018    .002    .000
Purdue              4    .890    .543    .080    .018    .001    .000
Texas               9    .372    .051    .026    .006    .001    .000
Michigan           11    .260    .109    .018    .003    .000    .000
Hampton            16    .071    .024    .008    .001    .000    .000
Eastern Michigan   12    .195    .041    .003    .000    .000    .000
South Dakota St.   13    .110    .020    .001    .000    .000    .000
Creighton          14    .132    .016    .001    .000    .000    .000
Middle Tennessee   10    .081    .002    .000    .000    .000    .000
Samford            15    .004    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000

Duke rates as the strongest of the two seeds, and Stanford as the weakest of the ones, so if you’re looking to avoid chalk in your Final Four this is probably the place to look. Still, the Cardinal is the clear favorite, especially with the benefit of playing not far from home while the other top seeds have to travel across the country. Stanford’s difficult travel will come this weekend, to Norfolk. Hampton will essentially be a home team and is strong for a 16 seed, so the Pirates could keep things interesting. Home-court advantage swings a couple of matchups in favor of Purdue and Oklahoma reaching the Sweet 16. West Virginia is a tough 8 seed, but that’s unlikely to matter much.

RALEIGH REGION

Team               Sd     R32     S16     E8      F4    Final   Champ
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Notre Dame          1    .997    .966    .928    .786    .360    .213
Maryland            2    .997    .882    .563    .128    .024    .006
Texas A&M           3    .985    .840    .371    .064    .009    .002
Georgia             4    .874    .622    .042    .010    .001    .000
California          8    .645    .026    .015    .004    .000    .000
Louisville          7    .620    .084    .027    .002    .000    .000
Arkansas            6    .574    .100    .021    .002    .000    .000
St. Bonaventure     5    .643    .247    .009    .001    .000    .000
Dayton             11    .426    .059    .010    .001    .000    .000
Iowa                9    .355    .008    .004    .001    .000    .000
Michigan St.       10    .380    .034    .008    .000    .000    .000
Fla. Gulf Coast    12    .357    .096    .002    .000    .000    .000
Marist             13    .126    .034    .000    .000    .000    .000
Liberty            16    .003    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000
Albany             14    .015    .001    .000    .000    .000    .000
Navy               15    .003    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000

The most interesting team in this region is St. Bonaventure. By Sagarin’s Elo Chess method, which does not include point differential, the Bonnies are a top-10 team and a deserving No. 5 seed. However, half of St. Bonaventure’s wins during a perfect conference regular season (14-0) came by single-digits, which is why the predictor considers them overseeded and makes Georgia the heavy favorite to reach the Sweet 16. In fact, look for chalk across the board. The next-strongest teams after the top four seeds are Louisville and California, who are unlikely to pull off upsets playing on the road.

KINGSTON REGION

Team               Sd     R32     S16     E8      F4    Final   Champ
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut         1   1.000    .975    .933    .862    .577    .395
Miami-FL            3    .989    .756    .546    .079    .021    .006
Kentucky            2    .958    .575    .242    .022    .004    .001
Penn St.            4    .904    .548    .040    .018    .003    .001
Rutgers             6    .521    .131    .061    .004    .000    .000
LSU                 5    .892    .423    .016    .005    .000    .000
Iowa St.           10    .593    .272    .072    .004    .000    .000
Green Bay           7    .407    .151    .044    .003    .000    .000
Princeton           9    .578    .017    .007    .002    .000    .000
Gonzaga            11    .479    .113    .036    .001    .000    .000
Kansas St.          8    .422    .009    .003    .001    .000    .000
UTEP               13    .096    .016    .000    .000    .000    .000
San Diego St.      12    .108    .013    .000    .000    .000    .000
McNeese St.        15    .042    .003    .000    .000    .000    .000
Idaho St.          14    .011    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000
Prairie View       16    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000    .000

UConn is the only team that rounds to an even 100 percent chance of winning in the opening round. To be exact, the simulation suggests Prairie View would win one out of every 4,447 meetings between the two teams. So if they played every day for about 12 years, we’d expect the Lady Panthers to win one of those games. If there’s one upset this analysis suggests you ought to pick, it’s Miami over Kentucky. The Hurricanes rate seventh in the country, Kentucky 11th, and neither will have much of a location edge in Rhode Island. Home-court gives LSU a solid chance of beating a good Penn State team, and also makes Gonzaga and Rutgers nearly even in the opening round. Even without Courtney Vandersloot, I’m taking the Zags to win a tourney game for the fourth consecutive year.

FINAL FOUR

Team               Sd     R32     S16     E8      F4    Final   Champ
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut         1   1.000    .975    .933    .862    .577    .395
Notre Dame          1    .997    .966    .928    .786    .360    .213
Baylor              1    .998    .952    .882    .739    .570    .276
Stanford            1    .929    .800    .732    .523    .196    .054
Duke                2    .996    .799    .675    .339    .109    .025
Tennessee           2    .983    .805    .667    .189    .095    .021
Maryland            2    .997    .882    .563    .128    .024    .006
Miami-FL            3    .989    .756    .546    .079    .021    .006
Texas A&M           3    .985    .840    .371    .064    .009    .002

Per this simulation, the chances of an all-one seed Final Four are 26.2 percent. Take out Stanford and there’s a 50-50 chance Baylor, UConn and Notre Dame all reach Denver. The remaining teams who made the Final Four at least five percent of the time include all two seeds but Kentucky, Miami and Texas A&M.

Notre Dame has a higher likelihood of reaching the Final Four than Baylor because Maryland rates weaker than Tennessee, but then the Fighting Irish run into Sagarin’s top team, UConn. Why the Huskies ahead of the Lady Bears? That’s tough to say; Baylor has the superior point differential against a more difficult schedule. The Lady Bears have looked vulnerable at times, but after they thoroughly dominated solid competition in the Big 12 Tournament I’m still taking them as my champions.

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Wisla Takes Polish Cup

Posted on Monday, March 5th, 2012 at 4:45 pm by Kevin Pelton

With the Euroleague’s Final Eight all set, the elite teams in Europe have briefly turned their full attention to domestic action. Let’s take a look at what happened over the weekend.

Sunday was the finals of the Polish Cup competition, with Wisla Can-Pack Krakow facing Lotos Gdynia. The game was close throughout and Gdynia took a one-point lead to the final period, but Wisla rallied to win 81-75 and reign as cup holders for the first time since 2009, snapping a two-year Lotos run. Behind 19 points and seven boards, Ewelina Kobryn (right) was named MVP of the final game; teammate Nicole Powell (15 points, six boards) was MVP of the cup. Taj McWilliams had 12 points and seven rebounds and Erin Phillips had 11 points, five boards and five assists.

In Russia, Sue Bird played the role of passer in an 88-53 UMMC Ekaterinburg win over Vologda-Chevakata. Bird did not score but handed out seven assists in 25 minutes. She set up Sandrine Gruda, who scored 21 points, and Deanna Nolan, who scored 16, among others. Svetlana Abrosimova came off the bench for eight points, two rebounds and two assists.

Ros Casares Valencia got a bit of a test Saturday from RC Celta Baloncesto, but emerged with a 69-56 victory. Ann Wauters had 14 points and seven boards for Ros Casares, while Lauren Jackson and Jana Vesela scored 12 points apiece. Sancho Lyttle led the team with 16 points and 13 rebounds.

Rebounding from an upset loss, Elizur Ramla topped Hapoel Rishon Lezion 79-75 today. Le’coe Willingham had game highs of 24 points and 13 rebounds for Ramla, Tanisha Wright scored 13 points and Alana Beard had 14. New Storm forward Victoria Dunlap, playing for Hapoel, had 16 points and 11 boards. So far this season, Dunlap is averaging 14.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.

In a key showdown Saturday, Pecs 2010 fell to Uni Seat Gyor, 75-65. Allie Quigley scored 20 points with seven rebounds and four assists, but her performance was topped by 25 points from Nora Bujdoso for Gyor. The loss drops Pecs a game back of Gyor for second place in the Hungarian League with a matchup in next week’s final round against undefeated UNIQA Euroleasing Sopron.

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Storm’s New Roster by the Numbers

Posted on Monday, February 27th, 2012 at 10:44 am by Kevin Pelton

The Storm already boasted a roster as decorated as any in the league, and adding the legendary Tina Thompson today as a free agent only adds to that. Here’s a look at what the Storm’s current players have accomplished during their careers:

12 - WNBA championships – Thompson 4, Sue Bird/Lauren Jackson/Katie Smith 2, Camille Little/Tanisha Wright 1 (Brian Agler 1)

2 – ABL championships – Smith 2 (Agler 2)

7 - Olympic gold medals – Smith 3, Bird/Thompson 2

3 – Olympic silver medals – Jackson 3

31 – All-Star appearances Jackson/Thompson 8, Bird/Smith 7, Ann Wauters 1

16 – All-WNBA First Teams – Jackson 7, Bird 4, Thompson 3, Smith 2

11 – All-WNBA Second Teams – Thompson 5, Bird 3, Smith 2, Jackson 1

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Storm Players Sweep Through to Final Eight

Posted on Friday, February 24th, 2012 at 2:58 pm by Kevin Pelton

During today’s Game 2 action in the Euroleague Playoffs, teams that won on Tuesday had a chance to complete two-game sweeps and join host Galatasaray in the Final Eight from March 28-April 1 in Istanbul. All three teams with Storm players managed to finish off their foes and advance.

UMMC Ekaterinburg took care of business with little trouble in a 75-49 win over Good Angels Kosice. Ekaterinburg took a 14-point lead to the break and outscored Kosice 24-10 in the final period to win by 26 points. Sue Bird had another outstanding game for UMMC, scoring 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Bird had two assists, two steals and no turnovers in 28 minutes. Deanna Nolan led Ekaterinburg with 19 points. Erin Lawless and Danielle McCray scored 15 points apiece.

Wisla Can-Pack Krakow took a double-digit lead after one quarter and never looked back in beating ZVVZ USK Praha 74-60. Ewelina Kobryn led the attack, scoring 22 points on 8-of-14 shooting with eight rebounds. Four other players scored double figures, including 15 points and 12 boards for Milka Bjelica. The Wisla defense held DeLisha Milton-Jones to 2-of-10 shooting and Lindsay Whalen without an assist.

The easiest victory of the three actually belonged to Ros Casares Valencia, which extended its lead over CCC Polkowice to 23 before halftime and cruised to a 78-58 victory. Again, Ann Wauters dominated the paint, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds. Sancho Lyttle also had a double-double of 15 points and 12 rebounds. Maya Moore led Ros Casares with 20 points, while Lauren Jackson scored nine points. Jana Vesela grabbed five boards.

The Final Eight is a new format this year that will bring the eight quarterfinalists to Istanbul. They’ll be split into two groups of four and play a round robin format. Then, the first-place teams from each group will battle for the Euroleague title, the second-place teams for third place and so on and so forth. There are still two spots to be decided. Sparta&K Moscow Region-Nadezhda and Rivas Ecopolis-Bourges are headed to deciding Game 3s next Wednesday. One team that won’t be there is defending champion Halcon Avenida, which was upset by Beretta-Famila Schio in a sweep.

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Storm in the News

Posted on Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012 at 2:39 pm by Kevin Pelton

A fun blog post by Brier Dudley of the Seattle Times checks in on Kate Starbird’s research into how social media is used during disasters and crises. Starbird, who is working toward her doctorate at the University of Colorado at Boulder, returned to the area last week to present her research at the Association for Computing Machinery’s conference, held in Bellevue. The product of Lakes High School in Lakewood played for the Storm in 2002 as part of a five-year WNBA career.

“She’s very impressive,” said David Notkin, professor and past chairman of computer science and engineering at the University of Washington.

Starbird credits Notkin with helping her make the transition from sports to academia.

After playing professionally in Spain, she was thinking about returning to school when she received an email out of the blue from Notkin, inviting her to a meeting of the executive leadership of the National Center for Women & Information Technology.

We previously caught up with Starbird for a “Where are they now?” feature two years ago, when she was studying Twitter responses to the devastating earthquake in Haiti.

Storm Head Coach Brian Agler wrote an interesting blog for SlamOnline.com about why it’s so important for him to spend time overseas during the European season:

Basically, the players’ careers are their business. The more I study and respect it, the better job I can do at molding our team and working with all parties involved to make things run as efficiently as possible for the players and the Storm organization. I truly don’t believe I would have them same kind of grasp and respect for the world of women’s basketball if I didn’t make these trips internationally.

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Euroleague Playoffs Tip Off

Posted on Tuesday, February 21st, 2012 at 4:16 pm by Kevin Pelton

Tuesday marked the opening day of postseason action in the EuroLeague, as teams battle in best-of-three series for a spot in the Final Eight.

Ros Casares Valencia took a 1-0 lead by dominating the second half of an 88-54 victory over CCC Polkowice. Up nine at the break, Ros Casares outscored Polkowice 26-9 in the third quarter to pull away. Ann Wauters put up 19 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 8-of-13 from the field. Lauren Jackson had 13 points in 17 minutes and Maya Moore scored 17 for Valencia, which also got 11 rebounds from Sancho Lyttle and 11 assists from Laia Palau. Former Storm camper Sharnee Zoll had 10 points and seven assists for Polkowice, which will try to force a deciding Game 3 by winning on Friday in Poland.

In Russia, UMMC Ekaterinburg got a much stiffer test from Good Angels Kosice before emerging with a 61-55 win. Up just one to start the final period, Ekaterinburg opened up with an 8-0 spurt and Kosice never again got closer than six points. Naturally, Sue Bird was in the middle of that run, knocking down a triple and handing out an assist to account for five of the eight points. In her best performance for UMMC, Bird scored a game-high 23 points on 8-of-16 shooting, including five three-pointers, and handed out three assists. She was the only player in double figures for Ekaterinburg, which got more balanced scoring than Kosice. Four players scored 51 of the team’s 55 points, led by 17 from Danielle McCray of the Connecticut Sun.

Ewelina Kobryn and Wisla Can-Pack Krakow knocked off ZVVZ USK Praha 66-52 in Game 1, turning a six-point advantage through three quarters into a 14-point final margin. Kobryn was a force in the paint with 14 points and 13 rebounds, while Nicole Powell (14 points, 10 boards) also had a double-double and Milka Bjelica and Erin Phillips scored 15 points apiece. Lindsay Whalen carried USK Praha with 19 points.

Elsewhere in EuroLeague action, the lone road team to win Game 1 was Beretta Famila Schio, which topped defending champion Perfumerias Avenida 67-59 in Salamanca. That makes Famila Schio the only team with a chance to close out the series at home, while the rest of the favorites go for sweeps on the road.

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Opals Announce Olympic Finalists

Posted on Thursday, February 16th, 2012 at 5:33 pm by Kevin Pelton

The London Olympics are coming, and days after USA Basketball named 24 finalists for its squad, Basketball Australia has done the same. The group includes, as expected, Storm star Lauren Jackson and three other players who previously played in Seattle: Suzy Batkovic, Abby Bishop and Belinda Snell.

Jackson announced last year her plans to sit out the first half of the 2012 WNBA season to prepare for the Olympics. So to will Snell, an unrestricted free agent who played for the Storm last season. That will allow them to participate in a pre-Olympic training camp beginning in May. Prior to that, Basketball Australia will use a selection camp in March to help choose the players who will be part of the final squad.

The Opals, who have won silver in each of the last three Olympics, are looking to regroup after a disappointing fifth-place finish in the 2010 FIBA World Championship. With Jackson and other key players like Snell and Penny Taylor in their 30s, there is a sense of urgency as Australia tries to capture an elusive gold medal.

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Statement on Seattle Arena Proposal

Posted on Thursday, February 16th, 2012 at 3:41 pm by Kevin Pelton

In response to today’s announcement that the city of Seattle has received a proposal from a group led by Christopher Hansen to build a basketball/hockey arena in the Sodo area, Storm CEO and President Karen Bryant released the following statement:

“All of us here at the Seattle Storm enthusiastically support the return of the NBA to Seattle. This is a basketball-loving town. What a fantastic opportunity for the city and sports lovers throughout the region and the state.

“Today’s announcement is just the beginning of a very long process, but we will support the effort in any way we can.”

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